Mark Iverson - Professional Sports Trader

Seeing Double

2012-01-27T11:38:00.000Z

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Tonight sees the final of Celebrity Big Brother, with Frankie Cocozza of X Factor fame currently heading the market as a 2.24 favourite. In fairness, he seems to have shown a softer side in recent episodes by sticking up for Denise Welch but my interest here centres around Karissa and Kristina the Playboy Mansion twins.
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Whooa..slow down! Of course they're nice to look at, but I'm referring more to their chances of winning. Since Channel 5 took over production of the show last year, something seems to have changed within the voting dynamics and at 12.5 their price seems high. Yes, they're pompous and 'slightly' arrogant but Aaron went on to win the 'Joe Public' equivalent after displaying similar traits and even got booed on his exit from the house. With viewing figures smaller than in previous years, does it take 'less' to get enough votes to win? Call me a cynic but if I was their management and I wanted them to break into the UK market, I'd be doing all I could to make sure they weren't first out tonight.
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So this morning I've shifted all of my 'green' onto them and....Michael Madsen. At a price of 15's on Betfair this is another runner that seems priced too high. He has an aura about him that shouts louder than the rest and if nostalgia plays any part in the final standings then I'm sure many 'Reservoir Dogs' fans will be picking up the phone to support him.

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Time Please

2012-01-24T17:13:00.001Z

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Last week was a little more stressful than I'd have liked as Nic was admitted to hospital with a Kidney infection. Three days later and after plenty of chasing around looking after the kids, I was given the nod that she was well enough to come home. She's completely on the mend now but this did get me thinking about 'time' and how we go about spending it.
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Have you ever thought about how long you spend doing things that you don't want to be doing? Or alternatively, how much you actually spend doing the things you want? In my 'old job' I'd spend 11 hours a day doing an activity that I no longer enjoyed and one that was rarely recognised - the daily routine was something like this...
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6.15am - Wake up and get ready
7.15am - Leave for work
8.15am - Arrive at work
12.00pm - Lunch
1.00pm - Finish lunch
5.30pm - Finish work
6.15pm - Get home
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Sound familiar? Day in day out a lot of us choose to follow the same routine. That's great if you enjoy what you do, but what if you don't? 11 hours a day, 55 hours a week, 2860 hours a year? Okay, knock off a few for annual holiday entitlement but that's a large chunk of your life spent doing something you don't want to do.
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Now I'm not saying, "follow me and become a sports gambler" but I am saying that it's good to think if there are other options if you're consistently feeling unfulfilled. As Steve Jobs the late Apple CEO said in one of his most famous addresses, "You've got to find what you love. Your work is going to fill a large part of your life, and the only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work, and the only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven't found it yet, keep looking. Don't settle."
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In my opinion, there's some very wise words being spoken there and to ensure that I'm managing my time effectively I've decided to track my working hours this year. Every minute I spend gambling or researching I'm going to record to ensure I'm getting rewarded for the effort I'm putting in.
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To give you an example, here's how January has panned out so far with regards to hours I've worked (click to enlarge):
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So far, on average, I'm putting in just over 37 hours a week but the most striking thing for me is that I rarely have a 'day off'. If Nic hadn't been in hospital would I have done nothing on the 16th and 17th? I doubt it, as my mind gets restless very quickly and I'd have been itching to research new approaches, so with busier months to come it'll be interesting to keep an eye on things to make sure my life remains balanced.
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On another note, I'm also half way through the book 'Rich Dad, Poor Dad' by Robert Kiyosaki. It's not to everyone's taste but if you've ever wondered how the Rich get rich and stay that way then it may inspire you to try and follow. I'm already scratching my head wondering how I can adopt some of the lessons into my lifestyle.
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One Year On (Part 3/3)

2012-01-06T13:58:00.000Z

With the analysis on what went right and wrong in 2011 completed, I now have to set out a plan on how I can make more in 2012.

There seems to be 2 distinct options; improve my profitability on losing sports and maybe stretch into other fields, or concentrate on markets where my edge is clear and improve the expected return on each of those events.

I’ve tossed and turned over this, but despite being a little concerned that putting my eggs in one basket may not be a wise move, I’ve come to feel that my best chance of getting to the next level is to target my established markets. The last 12 months have provided a great sounding board but now it’s time to get serious and up the ante. Now that I have a very good idea of where my strengths lie it would be bizarre for me not to spend as much time as possible on maximising the returns they bring. Diluting my attention to unknown or poor markets would seem a waste but I’m fully aware the challenge won’t be an easy one. Yes, my profits have increased by 70% this year but the year before I was only a part-time trader so it’s not a direct comparison. To hit the same heights again I’m going to have to become much more aggressive but at the same time refrain from being stupid – a tricky balancing act which has caught me out before.

So where will I concentrate my forces? Well, with cricket providing 82% of my profits I think it should be there! However, the number of matches available to bet on is likely to remain in the 250-270 bracket so I can no longer rely on quantity over quality – I have to focus on improving the expected return on each match. Is this possible – can I grow? Yes, I think I can. I was aware of being overly cautious at times last year and although I’ll continue to manage my risk closely, I’ll be conscious of the fact that I need to push the boundaries. The worst thing for me to do would be to trundle to the super premium charge threshold of £250k and end up scratching my head thinking what to do next.

As Vinny Jones says, it pays to go, “Hard & Fast.”

One Year On (Part 2/3)

2012-01-04T14:14:00.000Z

Part 1 of my 2011 review looked at the overall picture, but what sports made up my profits and has there been a shift since 2010? Are there changes I need to make and do I need to focus on some sports more than others?

First, the winners…

Cricket (UP 112%)

Since 2007, cricket has been my cash cow and a stable source of income but 2011 was an even busier year, with me trading 271 matches! This is up from 182 in 2010, so it’s no wonder that this sport has brought me better results, but the encouraging thing is that I’ve also become more efficient – each match was worth 44% more to me than the year before. There’s no Cricket World Cup in 2012 but we do have the T20 equivalent later in the year so I expect a similar amount of activity over the next 12 months.

Rugby Union (UP 100%)

Another big winner which I can put down to 2 things – again, being more effective but also the Rugby World Cup. This tournament allowed me to get involved regularly with decent volumes so it’s a shame that it won’t come along for another 4 years. A small worry regarding rugby is that I’ve noticed that liquidity in domestic matches has been decreasing in-play. I don’t know that for a fact, but that’s what it feels like. The only explanation I can find for this is that the previous market makers have been put off since the new premium charge rules were introduced in the summer.

NFL (UP 47%)

This is a pleasing one as I did put a lot of effort into getting to know this sport better before the start of the season. With the same amount of matches each year it’s an easy one to compare, so I’m hoping that I can go onto bigger and better things year on year.

So, there’s the good news but unfortunately we do have a couple of losers…

Darts (DOWN 83%)

Ouch! This hurt. I still turned a profit over the year but unfortunately it appears that my edge here has been eroded. Why? Well, it’s quite simple – my edge was all based around putting up unmatched orders in play at prices I knew to be bad value. Due to the volatility and speed of the sport a lot of these bets got taken and tadaaaaa…the profits mount up. So what’s changed? Some of you may have noticed that there are now fast picture players dominating these markets . With darts if you’re 2 seconds behind someone else then it’s the equivalent of being a dart behind. The orders I’m putting up are therefore out of date and I’ve been getting picked off. After accepting the truth I decided to hang up my darting mouse during the PDC World Championships and felt sick as I watched the drama unfold. It was just like finding out that your ex-girlfriend dumped you for someone else.

Betfair Premium Charges (UP 91%)

Despite my best efforts, I was unable to transfer a lot of my business to Betdaq, so have continued to use Betfair as my exchange of choice. It bugs me, but like a cornered mouse I have nowhere to go, but I’ll continue to look for a hole in the floorboard.

And the rest? Well throughout the year I’ve also dabbled with the horse racing and soccer markets but without sufficient time to devote to them it’s been a futile exercise. To try and plug this hole in my portfolio I decided at the end of November to start following Cassini’s XX Draw selections. It looks like I picked a bad time as Cassini won’t thank me for reminding him that we’re on a bad run – just 1 draw in the last 18 selections. The problem is I can’t stop now as I just know things will turn around, so I’m committed until the end of the season. I have faith!

So there you have it – the good, the bad and the ugly. Now, what next? What’s the plan for 2012? For that you’ll have to wait for my third and final post.

One Year On (Part 1/3)

2012-01-02T11:07:00.001Z

The close of 2011 signals the end of my first year as a full time sports gambler. Where has the time gone? It seems like only yesterday that I was sitting down with my old employers for my leaving meal. Time really does seem to have flown.

I mentioned at the beginning of the year that I'd only know if the move had been worth it after 12 months, so now that the numbers are in, have I wasted a year and if so what does the future hold?

Results
Lets start with the bottom line. In 2011 I made 70.28% more than in 2010. Of course, betting has now become my sole focus but at least the extra time researching and analysing has paid off. Don't get me wrong, I'm no millionaire, but considering my aim was to just survive and not make a fool of myself, I think I've done okay.

If you breakdown my performance into quarters this is how it compares to the previous year (click to enlarge):
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You'll notice that the main difference was in the last half of the year where it normally gets quieter regarding the number of events I look at. The Rugby World Cup in October helped but the main improvement was allowing myself more space when there were less contests to get involved with. In the past I would panic that "I had to make money" so would often lack the patience needed and rush in. That wasn't the case this year and the outcome seems to back-up that I adopted the right approach.

When it comes to which sports have generated my profits there have been winners and losers, but I'll go into that in a little more detail in my next post.

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A Very Happy New Year!

2011-12-30T07:48:00.001Z

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Just a quick note to let you all know that Kobe Iverson was born yesterday at 2.20pm, weighing exactly 8lb. Mother and baby doing well ;-)

Thanks to all of you that have offered best wishes on Twitter and through the blog - they really have been appreciated.

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Get Tracking

2011-12-26T16:55:00.003Z

I hope you're enjoying the holidays! If your house is anything like mine then you'll still have enough biscuits and chocolate left to see you through to June. I guess the diet will have to wait!

Anyway, just a quick post to let you know I've decided to make my Betfair monitoring tool available to anyone who wants it. I received a few emails from readers following my last post asking how they could implement something similar, so rather than talk through each step I've knocked up a page where anyone interested can acquire it. It really has changed the way I trade in-play on cricket but it can be used for any Betfair market. For example, if you're a horse racing trader would you be interested in reviewing how your p&l fluctuated in the 10 minutes before a race? The time intervals set for recording your position can be modified to whatever you like and it's easy to setup although you do need a Betfair account, Microsoft Excel and be a Bet Angel Professional subscriber.

Still there? Then either click the banner above or click here.

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Merry Christmas!

2011-12-24T11:25:00.001Z

I'd like to wish all my blog readers and Twitter followers a very happy Christmas, and really hope Santa thinks you've all been good!

A couple of days off for me and it's all systems on standby for the ultimate Christmas gift - odds on he arrives tomorrow!

Until my next post, here's a few snapshots of my p&l progress from a few in-play big bash games so far (click on images to enlarge). Overall it's been a good start but I think I need to keep an eye on getting into negative positions to early in the first innings.
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Go With Flow

2011-12-19T18:46:00.000Z

If people ask how I'm doing or how much money I've made, all I normally say is that I've not had a losing month for 5 and a half years. Of course there have been months where I've made next to nothing and others where I've made a bundle, but the number one aim I've had at the beginning of each one is 'don't lose!'. In fact it's become like a mission statement to me. The thought of a losing month (which can obviously happen) fills me with dread and I'm sure it's because of this that I've been able to continue my progression, albeit more slowly but perhaps steadily than some others.

Why am I bringing this up now? Well to be honest I had a shocking weekend where I just wasn't mentally right. I threw away quite a lot of money on a number of events and looking back I think I was trying to do too much. Losing was my way of telling myself to take a break.

I've known this was a danger for sometime but despite this I tend to push myself until something like this happens, but I don't want you to think that I'm reckless in my approach. The opposite is true - I would like to explain how I recognise this behaviour before it becomes a problem and how I go about changing it.

Let me explain. Firstly, as I've mentioned in other blog posts. I create a diary each month and record the events I intend to trade. This is helpful as it defines a plan that I can revolve my life around. With so much sport on TV these days it's possible to be tapping away for 24 hours a day but is 'all' of that time really going to be productive? Instead, my diary highlights what I would consider opportunities and and in turn backs up a very effective discipline cycle - if it's not in the diary I don't bet.

Now for the point of this post. In addition to my diary I also produce a flow of how much I expect to earn from each sport based on the number of events during that month. Sounds simple right? That's because it is! But....there is one important point - you need to have a good idea of how much each event is worth to you. How do you do this? Well, if you keep detailed records of your betting activity you already have the information - it's just a case of adding up your total profit and dividing it by the number of markets. This gives you your average profit per market. To illustrate my point, here's my 'flow' for December (if you click on the picture it should enlarge):

Guess where I went wrong on the weekend? That's right - a few maximum losses on the darts, but by filling in my flow it's allowed me to realise that I've gone off track. However, it's not all doom and gloom as I still have time to do something about it whilst at the same time cheer myself up by identifying that I've already surpassed my expectations on Rugby and the NFL.

There will be some who advise that setting targets is not a good idea and that a bet is a bet if it offers value. I can totally see their point, but when I make a bet I'm not only thinking of that, I'm betting on what my emotions will be like afterwards and by doing this it helps me to remain in control. Maybe something like this can help you too?

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Big Bash

2011-12-15T16:33:00.000Z

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No signs of the baby so I've yet another reason to get excited - the start of the KFC Big Bash! Yep, the Australian Domestic T20 competition starts at 8am (GMT) tomorrow and with 31 games scheduled between now and the end of January it will definitely warm up the cold dark mornings.
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There is a small snag - it's not being televised in the UK - but if you have a Betfair account or a bookmakers account (e.g. Bet365) then you can watch all of the games via their live video service. To be fair, I had no problems trading off these pictures last year with the delay at most 3-4 seconds behind, so I'm expecting the same again. In addition, liquidity was also surprisingly good so don't let that put you off either if you're thinking of taking a look.
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The IPL is still a welcome addition to the cricket calendar but I've a lot more confidence in the Aussie equivalent, so here's to hoping that I can end the year on a high. I've no strong feelings on any of the outright markets but will be sharing some of my thoughts on twitter on a match by match basis, so feel welcome to follow me by clicking the link above.
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Merry Christmas to you all!
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(I'm getting very festive)
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Golden Arrows

2011-12-08T18:40:00.000Z

The lead up to Christmas always gets me looking forward to new challenges but before I can switch my attention to what lies ahead, there's the traditional delve into the PDC World Darts Championship.

I've a soft spot for this competition as over the years it's remained a constant in my trading calendar and as a result I've witnessed many matches where the impossible seems to have happened. Great entertainment, and with the crowds joining in with the festivities it always puts me in a good mood.

With this outlook fresh my mind, I decided to scan my hard drive this week for recordings I made a couple of years ago that helped me analyse and improve my performance in the markets. Luckily enough I came across the following video of a match between Co Stompe and Mark Dudbridge. If I remember correctly this snippet is from the first set where I was expecting a 'swing trade' opportunity to present itself and sure enough it came along. I've decided to share it as if you've ever fancied taking a look at the Darts doing this sort of thing is a good way to start. It's a very quick in-play sport so you need an idea of what you're going to do before you get involved, but if you're patient and remain disciplined there can be lots of money to be made.

CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE VIDEO

Other news......Nic had an unplanned scan yesterday as part of her 38 week check-up. We were in for a shock! Not a bad one this time, but it appears that our little princess has turned into a little prince! Crikey - wasn't expecting that, but fortunately we don't have to redecorate, just swap pinks for blues.

Hopefully all goes well on the big day....anytime now.....

Geek's Toy For Betdaq!

2011-11-20T10:10:00.000Z

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Interesting times ahead as the 'Geek' has announced he'll be releasing a Betdaq version of the 'Toy' very soon. The liquidity on Betdaq has been increasing gradually over the summer since Betfair announced their new 'super' Premium Charge, so it'll be interesting to see if this software release will further help push users over to their rival exchange. In my opinion this is great news.
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In addition, the 'Geek' is also running another fantastic fundraiser for BBC Children in Need. There's some great prizes up for grabs so it's well worth checking out!
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For those of you unfamiliar with Geeks Toy, it's a completely free pice of software for betting or trading on Betfair and to be fair it's very good. My favourite feature is that it allows you to see the amounts being matched on each side of the market, but the recently released 1.2 Beta now has Dutching, Bookmaking, stop loss, a multibet tool, support for Betfair video. A new in play interface is also due to be released on Monday.
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Their forum is also very active so if you have any problems there's always someone willing to help out. As the 'Geek' says.....
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Geeks Toy - Probably the best Betfair trading software in the world!
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Work In Progress

2011-11-11T19:34:00.000Z

I've been continuing to fiddle with my in-play p&l monitoring tool since my my last post and really feel it's helping me take a broader view in the markets I'm playing.

Many of you'll have noticed an increase in the number of fast picture merchants on Betfair over the last few years which has meant the opportunity of nicking a tick here and there is fast disappearing. This lack of bonus ticks can make a big impact over the long term so I've been very conscious that I need to adapt in some areas to make up the shortfall. In addition, when using bigger sums it's harder to get in and out so being more selective and looking to hold positions for longer seems to be a logical move.

First up was the 1st Test Match between South Africa and Australia in Cape Town which turned out to be an extraordinary affair with 23 wickets falling on the 2nd day - totally bonkers! Here's my graph - click here. Once again I played very cautiously on the first day before realising it was time to get a bit more aggressive when things were starting to happen. I didn't push it though, and decided to call it a day at the end of the South African 1st innings. Lucky I did as Australia were then bowled out for just 47!

Yesterday's second event was some more NFL action with the Raiders visiting the Chargers. As you can see from this graph, things didn't go to plan yet again as the visitors got an early lead and I needed to claw things back. The positive? Well, I finished with a profit and by not monitoring my risk throughout I may not have. I'm sure the monitoring tool saved me but as the end of the game became more volatile the market became illiquid resulting in some inaccurate figures being recorded on the chart.

Hope you're liking the screenshots as much as I am :-)

Lights, Camera...Action!

2011-11-08T18:26:00.000Z

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Move over Tom Cruise! I've been thinking a lot recently as to how I can improve my in-play betting and have come to the conclusion that it would be great if I could review my performance quickly and easily after an event has finished. Reviewing what went well and not so well in the heat of the battle has never my strong point of mine due to me not having the time or inclination to trawl through my Betfair account and work out what trades were winners, but now I think I found a solution.
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I could try and explain by writing it here but it would probably long winded and confusing. Instead, dim the lights, get comfy and reach for the popcorn - it's time for my first video blog!
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I'm no Brad Pitt and I don't have the screen presence of Richard Burton (in fact I look genuinely ill after being up all night), but you might find it interesting. Leave me a comment if you do but please, no autograph requests....
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CLICK HERE TO WATCH VIDEO
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Remember Remember...

2011-11-06T05:49:00.000Z

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November always signifies the quietest time of the year for me and if I wasn't expecting a new arrival in December it would normally be time to get away for a while. Discipline is called for and experimenting on unfamiliar sports is scaled down. Playing it a little safer is my normal play when events are sparse.
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NFL though is one sport that tends to pick up during the month as it contains the national holiday, 'Thanksgiving'. Along with another excuse to get out the turkey, it also allows the Americans to schedule more gridiron action which is one of the reasons I've really concentrated on the game this year.
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Naturally, I build my own views from statistics available on sites like NFL.com and ESPN NFL, but it's always good practice to compare my expectations against others and recently I've stumbled across a website and mobile app that allows me to do this for free.
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Alot of you maybe familiar with this firm already but 'Accuscore' are a self-proclaimed leading sports forecasting company, so who better to match up against?
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They do offer a fee based service but there's no need to go that far as on both platforms they provide sufficient analysis on the weeks matches without a cost. For example, here's a snippet from their Jets @ Bills preview for this weekend (click for video):
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"The Buffalo Bills are a solid favorite with a 62% chance to beat the New York Jets. Fred Jackson is projected for 90 rushing yards and a 51% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 38% of simulations where New York Jets wins, Mark Sanchez averages 1.31 TD passes vs 0.75 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.87 TDs to 1.47 interceptions."

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Now I like that type of thing as the write-up is highly specific and over time I'll be able to judge how accurate they are. In addition, the mobile app is really easy to use and is quite a funky companion although it only features the same information as whats available on their website. If you prefer other North American sports like Baseball or the NBA then they've got them covered too (at least they do when they're not on lockout).
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Don't get me wrong, this tool is unlikely to make you rich overnight but what it does illustrate, to me at least, is that it's useful to have a quality benchmark to measure yourself against.
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Scarlet Fever

2011-10-11T12:34:00.000+01:00

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Wales is going crazy at the moment after the rugby team reached the semi-final of the Rugby World Cup for the first time since the inaugural tournament in 1987.
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To give you an idea, here's a YouTube clip doing the rounds at the moment. Apparently it's been adopted as the 'unofficial team' anthem and I admit there's a few lyrics in there that made me chuckle. Take the cup home? I certainly hope so.....
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Job's Gone

2011-10-06T08:06:00.000+01:00

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I've woken to the sad news this morning that Steve Job's has lost his long battle with health problems. Not many of us will leave this life and be able able to say, "I changed the world" but from my viewpoint this man could and did. Iphones, Ipods and Ipads are now a common sight but without his vision who know's if and when the rest of mankind would have caught up with his thoughts? Admittedly he didn't do it all by himself, and of course Apple aren't a perfect company, but it saddens me more than usual to know that we've lost a huge influence on what will be created tomorrow.
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I came across the following video of Steve making an address to Stanford University a couple of years ago, and there are a number of 'golden nuggets'' there which have helped me with my general outlook on life. If you haven't already, I recommend you watch it too.
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Taking Insurance

2011-09-29T20:45:00.000+01:00

I've mentioned previously on this blog that I sometimes take outright positions to cover outcomes I don't necessarily want to happen. The way I look at it is that I'm paying for the service of not having to endure a result that would be uncomfortable to bear.
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So to all my English friends, I'm sorry to tell you I've backed England to win the Rugby World Cup! Even though I don't think it'll happen, with the 'Northern Hemisphere' side of the draw looking like an open contest I can't take any chances...once was enough, but twice?!?
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To be on the safe side, I've also lumped on Samoa at a big price just in case they miraculously beat Wales out of the pool ;-)
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One Small Step...

2011-09-14T10:52:00.000+01:00

Overall, the first game covered in the NFL trading room received positive feedback. This is encouraging and although typing when trading can be distracting, I do enjoy speaking with others when a game is on. It makes you realise that there are other people who do this too!
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More good news is that I've managed to coax Cassini into covering another game next Sunday. So, if you'd like to take part then click on the link at the top of this page to register. The match in question will be the 6pm kickoff on Sunday (Buccaneers @ Vikings) which promises to be a close one so hopefully we'll do well.
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As I couldn't do this alone I'd also like to thank Cassini again for giving up his time, and it's good to see he was able to post a fantastic result on Monday night with this result. The Raiders were leading by 13 points at half time but the Broncos surged back to unluckily fall short by just 3. This got me thinking. What was the biggest upset to happen in NFL history? Now I don't have records going back to the 70's or 80's but remarkably I do recall the Broncos v Raiders match last season. The Broncos went off 7 points favourites and ending up losing 14-59!
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With possibilities to profit on events like this each week it's now no wonder that my love for this sport is deepening - watch out Billy Walters!
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Showtime

2011-08-29T10:25:00.004+01:00

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The new NFL season is due to start on the 8th September and I'm very excited. Long time followers of my blog will know I've always been a fan of this American sport although I have to admit to it only being my 4th most profitable behind cricket, rugby union and darts.
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This year I hope that'll change as I'm really keen to establish a regular a income from a sport other than cricket during the winter months and NFL fits the bill perfectly as there's not much cricket played on Sunday and Monday nights! To help in this quest I've put a lot of time into studying the sport and I'm hoping this will pay off. So watch this space, or.....
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You could join my NFL Trading Room. This was an idea I had at the beginning of last year whereby I would blog my thoughts 'live' during a match to give readers an idea of what I was doing. It was good fun but the main problem I had was that typing and trading at the same time just didn't mix, and I was worried I was missing opportunities that I'd otherwise be able to capitalise on.
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So why am I thinking of doing this again?
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Well there's two main reasons. Firstly, Cassini from the well respected and popular blog 'Green All Over' has agreed to help me co-host. By sharing the hosting responsibilities it'll hopefully take a little pressure off me to fill the gaps whilst also providing a different outlook on what's happening on the field. Cassini is a big follower of American sports and has a proven record so I see his input being invaluable to myself and others.
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Secondly, I want to find out if there's a demand for this type of thing and whether or not I have an ability to host it. With Betfair increasing their Premium Charges there's a big incentive for me to slow down the rate I win at, and it maybe the case that in the future I can do that by offsetting future wins by charging for services similar to this. That may or may not ever happen, but there you have it - I'm being honest.
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So if this sounds of interest and you'd like to come and take part, all you need to do is click on the link at the top of this page. The first match to be covered is likely to be the Steelers @ Ravens on Sunday 11th September but this will be confirmed in the members area nearer the time.
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Distracted

2011-08-24T10:42:00.000+01:00

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August has been a testing month so far which is especially frustrating after having a blinding start. I'm wondering if it's at this point I stood on a mirror or perhaps insulted a gypsy by mistake, as every step I've made since has left me banging my head against a wall.
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Firstly it was my cooker. One lonely night I was all set for a ready meal 'a la carte' and the bloody thing wouldn't heat up. It turns out the heating element had gone. Three days later it was fixed and back up and running - ah well, I thought.
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The next day I got a call off Nic who shouts down the phone, "the car's broken down on the motorway!" Bugger. She managed to get it to the nearest garage but what was initially diagnosed as a 30 minute job turned into a bill for a £1000 and a week driving a courtesy car. I hate Mechanics. With the risk of something else going wrong it was decided we needed a new car. More money down the drain.
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Surely nothing else?
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Wrong! Within the next few days the Dishwasher packed in and my computer blew up! Unbelievable. Now I like to think of myself as a pretty good planner and someone who takes into account all eventualities, but this was turning out to be me v the World at Defcon 1 and Dell telephone support were not the people I wanted to be speaking too. Maybe I went a little far in screaming down the phone but they had me on the phone for 6 hours trying to fix what turned out to be a faulty graphics card. Something which they couldn't resolve but still wanted to charge me £69 for because I'd taken up the Technicians time. If only I'd been in Bangalore.....grrrrr.
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If you add to all this a 20 week baby scan (which fortunately went okay - we're having a little girl), the hassle of Betfair Premium Charges and doing preparation for the upcoming NFL season, you could say it's been a busy time.
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What was it that John Lennon once said?
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" Life is what happens while you're busy making other plans"
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Too right John. Rant over. Feeling a little better.

Football Match Database

2011-08-15T18:48:00.003+01:00

After spending a lot of time researching and gathering football statistics over the last few months, I've come to realise that I won't be able to commit to sending out weekly rating emails over the coming year.
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As most of my time is focussed around cricket it only leaves so many hours in the day, and with a new baby on the way it's only going to become harder to manage!

However, it's not all bad news as I've decided to offer the data I hold to subscribers of last seasons ratings email and to readers of my blog.

In total, I now have access to over 30,000 football results covering seasons 2000/2001 to 2010/2011, with match statistics for each game at the click of mouse. The majority of the major European leagues are included:

English Premier League

English Championship

English Leagues 1 & 2

Scottish Premier League

Spanish La Liga

German Bundesliga

French Ligue 1

Dutch Eredivisie

In addition I've also included my revamped performance ratings which splits a team performance into attack and defence (maximum of 13 points for each). By doing this it helps me build an instant picture of a teams strengths and weaknesses.

If you are proficient in excel and are happy at filtering and using pivot tables,then you can answer multitudes of questions in seconds - full data includes:

Home & Away teams with match dates

Full time scores (by team)

Half time scores (by team)

Attack, Defence & average performance ratings (by team)

Number of shots (by team)

Number of shots on goal (by team)

Number of fouls (by team)

Number of corners (by team)

Number of yellow cards (by team)

Number of red cards (by team)

Pre-match Bookmaker odds (home, draw & away)

Total match goals

Full time and half time results

I really believe that having this information makes a difference, so if you want access and a copy for yourself then follow the link below:

I WANT A COPY OF THIS DATABASE

There's a small one off fee but after that the data is yours to keep and manipulate however you wish. The data is supplied as a spreadsheet in .xls format and is best accessed using Microsoft Excel 2007 or later.

To give you an idea of what to expect I'm happy to email anyone interested a sample file of 500 matches for free - just email me at members@markiverson.com. Enjoy!

Note - For those of you who do decide to purchase, please allow up to 24 hours for delivery and check your spam folders for my email.
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I'm making this available as I feel some of you could benefit from using the data to analyse and benchmark past games, but if you're not interested or already have something similar then that's fine.

Barrier To Entry

2011-07-30T09:08:00.000+01:00

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The last month has been a challenge, as wherever possible I've tried to direct my business to Betdaq as opposed to Betfair. Liquidity for Test Matches has been good but as my income from this form of cricket is small when compared to one day games, for me at least, it's the T20 and One Day International markets that will need to improve.
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Don't get me wrong - things are much better now than they were, and there does seem to be a concerted effort from disgruntled 'Premium Charge' payers to move, so it just needs certain parts of the jigsaw to come together, and one of these is the availability of a quality API product.
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For those of you unaware, both Betfair and Betdaq have an API which allows third party vendors to create software to interact with the data from their exchanges. However, until now vendors have mainly focused on providing users with a better product for Betfair due to the popularity of the exchange. This is totally understandable as it wouldn't have made sense to invest equally in a product that didn't have an equal demand, but it appears that things maybe starting to change.
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On the Geeks Toy forum there's currently a clamour for the Geek to develop an alternative, and the good people at Bet Angel have recently upgraded their Betdaq software to include a number of significant enhancements. These are huge steps showing an intent and willingness for change.
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So what's next? Well, it's now up to us. If the vendors are prepared to go out on a limb then we need to be prepared to follow. If not, the status quo will remain and the long term forecast will remain bleak.
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For what it's worth, I can't underestimate how much of a difference using these types of programs have made to my betting over the last 6 years. I can honestly say I wouldn't have been as profitable without them as they allow me to see the true form of the market and empower me to enter and exit positions instantly, so I'd strongly recommend you visit the following links if you haven't done so already:
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Geeks Toy
Bet Angel
Gruss Software
Centaur (they include access to their software if you sign-up to their Traders Club)
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I'm currently reading the book, 'The Newtonian Casino' and as it says at the end of the first chapter - "why would anyone play roulette, without a computer in their shoe?"
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The same principle applies here.
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Make Or Take?

2011-07-06T13:05:00.000+01:00

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After reading countless forums over the last few weeks I stumbled across details of Betdaq's new commission structure. I say new, but it would seem that this structure has been in place since the beginning of the year except I didn't know about it! The good news is that the post was from Betdaq's team themselves and it makes total sense. Here's an extract:
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The reason for this post is to inform you that we have been studying the impact on our product and on our business of the activities of API users. We have noticed over the past year the increasing influence of such users who take offers made by other users while rarely making offers for other users to take. This has the impact of reducing the available liquidity for normal retail users.

Following this review, we decided to change the way in which we charge commission to customers using the Betdaq API.

From March 1st 2011 we introduced a new commission structure that operates for API users as follows:

Betdaq will operate a scalable commission structure whereby the greater the proportions of offers you make that are taken by others, the lower your rate will be. Commission will continue to be charged on your market winnings from any single market.

The standard commission rate is 5 per cent, but you will be able to bring that down to as low as 1 per cent depending on your activity Take/Make % over a rolling 7 weeks period.

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What makes this so appealing? Well, Betdaq are obviously trying to attract market makers who will in turn attract liquidity to their markets. By putting up orders rather than taking them it's then possible to reduce the amount you pay in commission to just 1%. Imagine that, winning £100 and getting to keep £99! Here's the full commission table:
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A different approach to normal maybe needed, but it's hard to see any initial drawbacks. The full post can be found by clicking here.
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No Alternative?

2011-06-30T21:39:00.000+01:00

A promising start on Betdaq and I'm not a big 'fish' by any means. Liquidity was decent and if it gets even better after the 18th July then I'll be very happy. Why not give it a try? With no 20% deduction from the Betfair Premium Charge next week, over time it will make a big difference.

In A Nutshell

2011-06-30T10:33:00.000+01:00

The fall-out continues, as most betting forums are swamped with users commenting on Betfairs latest increase in charges. One post stood out more to me than the rest though and I hope 'andyfuller' doesn't mind me reproducing his post on the Bet Angel forum. In my opinion it just about sums things up:
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"You don't have to be making a fortune to be caught by this charge. Say you have made £100,000 so far and make £50,000 a year net, you have 3 years left then you best find something else to do.

So if you make £50,000 which is decent money but far from being a big hitter and not exactly crazy money in the grand scheme of things you would have to think. Do I carry this on for 3 more years and then stop or do I go and get a job now that pays say £30,000.

The job has no risk to your own money, social benefits, regular income etc and a future.

Or do you carry on making your £50,000 and be yet more unemployable in three years.

Or what about the guy starting out who wanted to trade for a living, £250,000 is hardly a lifetimes income so why even bother starting unless you want to do it as a hobby or as a supplement to your regular income.

Giving £100,000 a year would have been acceptable, but not £250,000 a lifetime, that is only £25,000 a year for how long Betfair have been around which is very little given the risks people have taken.

Take a big hitter who can make £1,000,000 a year on Betfair, they now get to keep £400,000 which is very nice still but is it worth their efforts?

Now take the more realistic/achievable guy who make £100,000 a year, they now get to keep £40,000. Is that worth it, no not at all, there are much easier ways of making £40,000 a year.

So how many people do we have on here who was up until today looking to make trading their future who now thinks the charge doesn't affect them.

I know I wouldn't have put in all the effort I have with a carrot of £250,000 and then 40% of what I make each year there after dangling in front of me."

The big question now is will the ecology of the exchange change? As someone on the Betfair forum commented, "It's like living on the Savannah and seeing them burning down the forest. You think it doesn't affect you - till you see the elephants charging your way."
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If anybody wants to hear a Betfair perspective on where the company is heading then I'd recommend listening to the webcast of David Yu (their current CEO) announcing their Full Year Results. You can do so by clicking here.
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Bet Unfair

2011-06-29T08:56:00.002+01:00

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So, Betfair have decided to tinker with their Premium Charges yet again, except this time they've really gone for the jugular. Instead of 20%, they now want 40-60% of your winnings depending on how much commission you generate for them. The good news? There isn't any. Your account will need to have a lifetime net profit of £250k (although it's likely this condition will get ditched in the near future) but Betfair are basically saying that if you keep winning you'll pay eventually.
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For those who believe the spin that this only effects 0.1% of Betfair users, you are mistaken. It effects everyone. This is the issue. Betfair have only looked at what it will cost them in losing these 500 or so accounts. They've not taken the time to fully understand the impact these charges have on those below the 250k 'magic' number. People aspiring to this level plan their lives around Betfair's charges and as in any line of business will do what they can to minimise the impact.
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The result? Everyone who's read about these new charges is either contemplating life without Betfair or thinking of a way not to pay. Eitherway, it's a lose-lose situation for for a company who had huge customer loyalty and market awareness only a few years ago.

Surely it's time people started walking to Betdaq? Full details of the new charges can be found here.

Number 2

2011-06-23T09:12:00.001+01:00

After what seems like an eternity, I'm chuffed to bits to be able to start telling people that I'm going to be a Dad for the 2nd time! Nic is 13 weeks pregnant and the big day is predicted to be the 23rd December. Okay, Christmas may have to be put on hold for a couple of weeks but what a fantastic way to finish the year!?! After the drama we had with Caden's health, we all have our fingers crossed that this time things will turn out just fine. Happy days :-)
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Catch The Pigeon

2011-06-11T08:18:00.001+01:00

The thrilling T20 contest between Lancashire and Yorkshire last night reminded me of a freak occurrence that happened when these sides met back in 2009.
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On a beautiful barmy summer evening Jacques Rudolph fielded a ball in the outfield and returned a throw to the stumps only for it to connect with a fleeing pigeon.
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There was only one winner, and it still baffles me as to why the Sky producers thought it was okay to show a slow motion replay of the birds demise. The video is not for the squeamish.

A Few Questions

2011-06-08T10:23:00.001+01:00

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It's always nice when someone takes an interest in what you do, so it was a pleasant surprise this week when Ben from 'Sports Trading Life' dropped me an email asking if I could answer a few questions to be put on his site.
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Sitting down and thinking about the answers was fun, so if you're interested in what I said you can read the full article by clicking here.

The 5 Stages

2011-05-22T22:06:00.001+01:00

I came across an old document today that I once read on the Betfair forum many moons ago. It's called 'The 5 Stages' and is a must read for anyone new to using Betfair. I haven't read it for while but it never ceases to make me smile - it's just so spot on. The software references area bit out of date but it is about 6 years old now.

Here it is, enjoy...

Step 1 - Unconscious Incompetence

This is the first step you take when starting to look into trading on Betfair. You know its a good way of making money because you've heard so many things about it and heard of so many people who make money. Unfortunately, just like when you first desire to drive a car you think it will be easy - after all, how hard can it be?

Unfortunately, just as when you first take your place in front of a steering wheel you find very quickly that you haven't got the first clue about what you're trying to do. You take lots of trades and lots of risks. When you enter a trade it turns against you so you reverse and it turns again .. and again, and again.

You may have initial success, and that's even worse - it tells your brain that this really is simple and you start to risk more money.

You try to turn around your losses by doubling up every time you trade. Sometimes you'll get away with it but more often than not you will come away scathed and bruised. You are totally oblivious to your incompetence at trading.

This step can last for a week or two but learning the Betfair market is usually swift and it won’t be long before you move onto the next stage.

Step 2 - Conscious Incompetence

Step two is where you realise that there is more work involved in trading and that you might actually have to work a few things out. You consciously realise that you are an incompetent trader - you don't have the skills or the insight to turn a regular profit.

You now set about buying systems and e-books galore, read websites and begin your search for the holy grail. During this time you will be a system nomad - you will flick from method to method day by day and week by week never sticking with one long enough to actually see if it does work. Every time you come upon a new tipster, software or trading guru you'll be ecstatic that this is the one that will make all the difference.

You'll test out automated systems on Bet Angel, you'll play with Gruss using Excel triggered betting, dabble on Bet IE and maybe more Excel trading with Market Feeder. You might even look at support & resistance to try and figure out a likely range where you'll be able to make a "safe" trade. You'll consider BF Explorer and Adam's BetTrader and may even analyse the market with BetMarket Scanner and a hundred other things all in the vein hope that your 'magic system' starts today. You'll be a top and bottom picker, trying to find the exact point of reversal with your indicators and software and you'll find yourself chasing losing trades and even adding to them because you are so sure you are right.

You'll go into the Betfair General Betting Forum and see other traders saying they make a profit and you want to know why it's not you - you'll ask a million questions, some of which are so dumb that looking back you feel a bit silly. You'll then reach the point where you think all the ones who are calling profits are liars - they can't be making that amount because you've studied, noted form and you don't make that, you know as much as they do and they must be lying. Here's the reality, most real successful traders aren't in forums such as this.

You will be like a teenager - the traders that say they make money will freely give you advice but you're stubborn and think that you know best - you take no notice and over trade your account even though everyone says you are mad to - but you know better. You'll consider following the tips that others make but even then it won't work so you try paying for trading courses from someone else - they don't work for you either.

You might even approach a 'guru' or someone on a forum like this who promises to make you into a trader (usually for a fee of course). Whether the guru is good or not you won't win because there is no replacement for screen time and you still think you know best.

This step can last ages and ages - in fact and in reality talking with other traders as well as personal experience confirms that it can easily last well over a year. If your bank doesn't blow up in the meantime. This is also the step when you are most likely to give up through sheer frustration.

Around 60% of new traders die out in the first 3 months - they give up and this is good - think about it - if trading was easy we would all be millionaires. Another 20% keep going for a year and then in desperation take risks guaranteed to blow their account which of course it does.

What may surprise you is that of the remaining 20% all of them will last around 3 years - and they will think they are safe in the water - but even at 3 years only a further 5-10% will continue and go on to actually make money consistently.

I've had many people argue with me about these timescales - funny enough none of them have been trading for more than 3 years. Sure, I guess there will be exceptions to the rule - but I haven't met any yet.

Eventually you do begin to come out of this phase. You've probably committed more time and money than you ever thought you would, lost 2 or 3 loaded accounts and all but given up maybe 3 or 4 times but now its in your blood

One day - in a split second moment you will enter stage 3. That is the Eureka Moment.

Step 3 - The Eureka Moment

Towards the end of stage two you begin to realise that it's not the system that is making the difference. You realise that it’s actually possible to make money with a simple moving average and nothing else IF you can get your head and money management right. You start to read books on the psychology of trading and identify with the characters portrayed in those books and finally comes the eureka moment.

The eureka moment causes a new connection to be made in your brain. You suddenly realise that neither you, nor anyone else can accurately predict what the market will do in the next ten seconds, never mind the next 20 minutes. You start to work just one system that you mould to your own way of trading, you're starting to get happy and you define your risk threshold.

You start to take every trade that your 'edge' shows has a good probability of winning with. When the trade turns bad you don't get angry or even because you know in your head that as you couldn't possibly predict it it isn't your fault - as soon as you realise that the trade is bad you close it . The next trade will have higher odds of success because you know your system works.

You have realised in an instant that the trading game is about one thing - consistency of your 'edge' and your discipline to take all the trades no matter what as you know the probabilities stack in your favour.

You learn about proper money management and leverage - risk of account etc - and this time it actually soaks in and you think back to those who advised the same thing a year ago with a smile. You weren't ready then, but you are now. The eureka moment came the moment that you truly accepted that you cannot predict the market.

Step 4 - Conscious Competence

You are making trades whenever your system tells you to. You take losses just as easily as you take wins. You now let your winners run to their conclusion fully accepting the risk and knowing that your system makes more money than it loses and when you're on a loser you close it swiftly with little pain to your account.

You are now at a point where you break even most of the time - day in day out, you will have weeks where you make 100 ticks and weeks where you lose 100 ticks - generally you are breaking even and not losing money. You are now conscious of the fact that you are making calls that are generally good and you are getting respect from other traders. You still have to work at it and think about your trades but as this continues you begin to make more money than you lose consistently.

This lasts about 6 months.

Step 5 - Unconscious Competence

Now we’re cooking - just like driving a car, every day you get in your seat and trade - you do everything now on an unconscious level. You are running on autopilot. You start to pick the really big trades and getting 100 ticks in a day is becoming quite normal to you. This is trading utopia - you have mastered your emotions and you are now a trader with a rapidly growing account.

You're a star on the Betfair forum and people listen to what you say. You recognise yourself in their questions from about two years ago. You pass on your advice but you know most of it is futile because they're teenagers - some of them will get to where you are - some will do it fast and others will be slower - literally dozens and dozens will never get past stage two, but a few will.

Trading is no longer exciting - in fact it's probably boring you to bits - like everything in life when you get good at it or do it for your job - it gets boring - you're doing your job and that's that.

However, you can now say with your head held high "I'm a Betfair Trader".

Seem Familiar?

2011-05-21T20:21:00.001+01:00

Time To Grow

2011-05-18T12:56:00.000+01:00

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As many of you will know the majority of my betting profits come from cricket, and it's with some reluctance that I admit that over the last few years the amount each match has been worth to me has remained the same. It's been easy for me to track this figure as all I've needed to do is divide my total profit by the total number of markets and what I've been left with is my average profit/loss per market.
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So why is this and why has it taken me this long to promise myself that I'll do something about it?
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The first issue is that until now I've not really needed more per market. That sounds daft but what I mean is that I've just played 'more markets'. In 2008 I traded 85 matches, 173 in 2009 and 182 in 2010, so my increase in profits has been solely down to an increase in match volume. As I'm now full time I expect the number of matches I bet on this year to rise to around 230 and whilst I could continue to follow the 'volume' path I'm aware that I need to work on maximising my return from each event if I'm going to continue growing.
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Okay, so now I've explained the situation, how do I go about improving things? Well, I'm a big believer in tracking the key statistics; Win %, Average Win & Average Loss. These three indicators have really helped me to manage my performance and have given me a glimpse of the big picture when individual events haven't gone my way. Of course, each one can't be measured without consideration for the others as profitability is a direct outcome of how these three figures interact with each other.
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A quick example in case I've lost you. Which following scenario would you prefer over the course of 100 markets?
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Scenario A
Win % - 75%
Average Win - £100
Average Loss - £150
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Scenario B

Win % - 50%

Average Win - £150

Average Loss - £100

Yep, you should have chosen Scenario A as in this case you'd have made £3750 profit compared to just £2500 in Scenario B. Despite your average loss being much higher than your average win your win % of 75% makes it the better option.

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There are many possible scenarios but having these numbers in your head when betting on an event definitely helps, but for what it's worth my scenario involving cricket has remained relatively constant. As I don't want to disclose my exact profit/loss figures the following average win/loss figures are not exact, but they do show how my patterns have panned out over the last few years:
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2008

Markets - 85

Win % - 80.52%

Average Win - £56

Average Loss - £44

2009

Markets - 173

Win % - 76.88%

Average Win - £49

Average Loss - £51

2010

Markets - 182

Win % - 76.92%

Average Win - £47

Average Loss - £53

The good news first. My win % has remained high! The bad news? I've struggled to keep my average win higher than my average loss. This all means that the value of each event has remained the same as these amounts haven't got much bigger either.

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This year I'm doing slightly better and with more markets I should make more money, but I still haven't grown at the rate I'd have liked. After much analysis I've come to the conclusion that my staking is to blame. In the beginning, things were pretty straightforward - as my bank grew I would adjust my stakes in line with the odds of a selection. At the end of each month I would readjust my bank and these figures. Simple eh? My bets would get bigger and my wins would get larger? Wrong. I reached a ceiling that I was comfortable with and despite raising my stake values I found myself using the one below the one I'd supposed to. This has led to me over-staking and under-staking and not really having a good idea of where I am, but I think I have a solution.
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From today I'll be trialling the use of the tick size staking option on the 'Geeks Toy' ( I believe this is available in other software too). The idea is that it will work out my stake size for me based on an assigned value per tick that I'm willing to risk. Hopefully this will allow me to concentrate 100% on making the right decisions and the rest will take care of itself. I'll let you know how it goes.

Thrill Seeking

2011-04-28T20:46:00.003+01:00

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The hot topic over at Cassini's excellent 'Green All Over' blog recently seems to be the ever-present thought for many - gambling on a full-time basis. Let's get things straight - it's a mighty big step to take. I can only speak from my experience when I say its' important to get the building blocks in place first.
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In case I've misled anyone in the past, I'll make it clear now that it's not a decision I took lightly. Over the last 4 years I've re-invested winnings to build up a reasonable sized float and put enough aside to ensure that should any losing runs come I can manage for up to 12 months. I also reduced my outgoings wherever possible and cleared all of my outstanding debt, (bar my mortgage) to free me of any emotional baggage that could bring me down at the earliest opportunity. It also helped to work out that by not going to the day job on a daily basis I would save £500+ a month by not having the need for a 2nd car. The tax, insurance and petrol costs that go with it would vanish overnight.
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In addition, I also did a little SWOT Analysis to understand my current position. My strengths were clear, I was making good profits and hadn't had a losing month. My weaknesses? Well, how would I react to being self-sufficient? Would I crumble under the additional pressure? These unknowns were certainly a weakness. However, the opportunities brought a smile to my face; I would have the opportunity to be my own boss, I would be able to see my family more, I would be in control of my own destiny and my earnings would be solely down to me. I can't deny though that the threats weren't more of a concern. Yes, Betting Exchanges might not be around forever, laws could change tomorrow and my edge might disappear, but as a trained Project Manager I took the decision that I had a path I could revert to if necessary.
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Of course it's still early days, and it'll only be after 12 months of doing this that I think I'll feel totally comfortable in what I'm doing, but I'm not going to have any regrets now. It would be a waste of everything I've done to get myself to this place. This is the time for me to have fun.
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If you're in a similar position to where I was/am, all I can say is to make sure you have your bases covered and good luck!

After You

2011-04-14T09:20:00.004+01:00

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After the first 10 matches of this years IPL an interesting statistic has formed with 8 of the teams batting 2nd going onto win. When you consider that Twenty20 is a surprisingly even game, (with the average chances of winning when chasing a score hovering under 50%) it would seem that things are a little out of line. Watch this space to see if the law of averages pulls us back to the norm, or is there a reason why this should be an advantage this season?
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From a personal viewpoint it's been a placid start and I'm yet to hit my straps. Good news is there's 64 matches to go, and with approximately £8 million being matched on every 3 hour contest, that's plenty of time to move up a few gears.

End Of Quarter 1

2011-04-06T16:16:00.000+01:00

The end of March sees the end of the 1st quarter of 2011 and at this point I always like to review my progress against what I achieved last year. As some of you may recall, I took the jump into full-time sports gambling back in January so I'm pleased to report that I've been able to hold my own with my p&l improving by over 69% compared to the same period 12 months ago.

The extra time I've had to analyse and research has definitely helped whilst the Cricket World Cup provided a good vehicle for generating returns, so it's easy to start getting ahead of myself and think 'anything's possible'. I'm fully aware however that the 2nd quarter has historically been my most critical time of the year so it was with relief that I heard the news that ITV have confirmed they'll be screening live IPL matches for the next 4 years. I can't underestimate the importance of this as with 74 matches per season and with interest likely to be high, there'll be many opportunities to take advantage of. The shape of the markets have changed over the last few years but for anyone new to betting on cricket it's an area you should look to explore.

Good luck if you do - just be cautious initially as the pace of the game is alot different to the 50 over equivalent we've been treated to over the last 2 months.

Whipping Up A Storm

2011-03-22T09:04:00.000Z

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If you're an IPad user then you maybe interested to hear that the people at Juicestorm have just launched an alternative Betfair App called 'Bet Tornado' that gives you access to the API, has a training mode facilty and plenty more features.

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It's free of charge and can be downloaded from the App Store here. At first glance it may seem a little 'busy' so be sure to check out their user manual if you decide to give it a try.

Aggers Rant

2011-03-14T05:01:00.002Z

Some strange tweets appeared overnight from reassuring 'voice of cricket' broadcaster Jonathan Agnew, and speculation was rife as to who the BBC commentator was referring too. The Twitter comments appeared to be far more personal than the normal fare served up by the well known journalist, and it seems as if they were meant to be direct messages as opposed to public criticism. Either way, it would seem someones upset him.

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On a slighty different topic, with the start of the Cheltenham festival on the horizon Centaur have put together a free festival fact sheet. You can view it here. Racing is not my cup of tea but some of you may find it useful.

Reminiscing

2011-03-10T10:35:00.001Z

I was looking back on some old notes that I had tucked away yesterday, and came across 39 pages of snippets I'd made after reading 'Reminiscences of a Stock Operator' by Edwin Lefevre. If you haven't heard of it before then I'll warn you now it's hard work, but if you have the time and inclination there are alot of hidden gems in there that will help you trade any markets, including those on Betfair.
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"If you begin right you will not see your profitable position seriously menaced; and then you will find no trouble in sitting tight."

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Sound familiar? Ever rushed into a market without thinking things through because the price looked too good to be true and later regretted it? This was a repeating theme when I first started out. Time and time again I would log-on and after discovering the odds to be out of kilter to what 'I thought' they should be, my over-whelming reaction was to jump in immediately before the market caught onto the mistake. Unfortunately for me I couldn't move the market on my own and over time I realised the significance of timing when taking a position.
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By all means hold an opinion, but if you can keep that to yourself until the time to strike is right you'll find a tremendous improvement in your profits.

Wow....Just WOW!

2011-03-02T17:19:00.008Z

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I'm in my tenth year of being a Betfair customer and have seen quite a few things during that time but I've never witnessed a game of cricket like that. Ireland managed the impossible by beating England but it isn't just the result that is hard to believe but the manner in which they did it.
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England's price remained at sub 1.04 for the length of their innings and when they finished on 327 only the most optimistic of all Irish supporters would have thought their team would get anywhere close. One ball into the Irish innings and even those wishes would have seemed unrealistic as Porterfield was bowled by Jimmy Anderson. Wicket after wicket fell and after 25 overs the Irish had slumped to 113/5, England were on cruise control and that may have been the reason for their demise - they fell asleep at the wheel.
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Kevin O'Brien was incredible with a knock of 113, especially when you consider he had the weight of the country on his shoulders, but it has to be said that the English bowling has been woeful in each of their games this tournament. They are just not suited to these pitches and have conceded 292, 338 and 329 in succession.
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What was that about the luck of the Irish? No, don't be fooled, this wasn't lucky - it was a well deserved victory.

Centaur Academy

2011-02-16T10:58:00.032Z

If you read any of the internet forums then you'll find mixed views regarding any perceived benefits from attending Betting Exchange Trading courses. The main objection that always gets raised is that if someone knows how to make money then why do they want to share it with the rest of us? A valid point, and I can understand that as gamblers we all have a natural instinct to guard any edges we think we have, but it's also easy to forget how difficult a concept this trading malarkey can seem to traditional punters. For some, a helping hand in the early stages of their induction is most welcome and this is the target market for where the majority of these courses are aimed.

Where am I going with this? Well, yesterday I attended the training course run by Centaur Academy at their offices in central London. Why? Well I'm always keen to see if I can learn new things but having attended Peter Webb's Trading Masterclass a couple of years ago, I mainly wanted to get a refreshed view from the 'other side' on what people are now doing. Have things changed and have I kept up? Afterall, the grass can grow very long under your feet if you don't keep moving.

To help others who maybe thinking of attending one of these events, here's the lowdown on what went on.

Venue, Presenters & Format

Centaur's office is just across the road from the Moorgate tube station and is very accessible and easy to find. Inside is a modern layout with LCD screens showing sport on most walls and a number of workstations. There is also an open area that is used for providing presentations, and this is where the ten of us spent the morning with the two trainers, Steve Taylor and Tony Hargraves (Badger).

Steve and Tony were down to earth and for the first session concentrated very much on the methodology behind trading. The usual things were covered; set-up, strategy, risk management, discipline etc. and it was highlighted with examples as to why these are common pitfalls for inexperienced traders. All of these points were relevant and did offer a glimpse into the different mindset you need to succeed.

Following on from this there was an explanation as to how important using API software is to maximising your returns. Whilst Centaur promote their own software (Xpress Trader, which is the same as BetTrader Evolution) as part of their Traders Club, they did also explain that other software was available on the market. To be fair, there was no hard sell on their part and they gave all the others (Gruss, Geeks Toy, Bet Angel) equal mentions.

Lunch and drinks were then provided before the practical afternoon session began. There wasn't a huge amount of live sport on yesterday so we had to make do with some Women's tennis from Dubai and the odd horse race from meetings around the country. It was enough though as it gave everyone a chance to familiarise themselves with the idea of backing 'high' and laying 'low' and an opportunity to get used to the one click software.

The course started at 10am and drew to a close just after 4pm.

So are courses like this worth £200, £300, £400?

I find this a difficult question to answer as I'm not really the person they're aimed at. All I can say is that a number of the attendees seemed happy with what they were getting and probably went home more confident in getting involved in the markets. If I was to offer one bit of constructive criticism it would be that all trading courses of this nature should focus more on the practical side of the day. Whilst people are learning you can always reinforce the finer points.

At the end of the day it's a personal decision, but if you feel you need help in getting started then I wouldn't let others put you off, However, please accept before you go that attending a course won't make you a millionaire overnight!

An interesting observation...

Two years ago these types of courses would have revolved around pre-race horse racing, but not anymore! The majority of attendees had little interest in the nags and nearly all of them spoke about how keen they were to trade the soccer markets. Should racing be concerned? I think so.

Field Of Dreams

2011-02-06T11:02:00.007Z

It's here. Some call it the 'Greatest Show on Earth' and with this seasons Superbowl being held at the highly impressive Cowboys Stadium in Arlington it would be hard to disagree. You don't see many sporting arenas in the world with a giant HD television hanging over the pitch!

From a trading perspective I'm delighted that Green Bay have got this far as it's allowed me to lay off my bet that I made at the start of the playoffs. They've already beaten the odds by winning away from home 3 times on the trot but this game is just too close to call for me to hold a pre-match position. If I was pushed into a corner I'd probably lean towards Pittsburgh's defence making the difference but this could be a 'swingy' match and there should be plenty of opportunities throughout the game to take advantage of.

So enjoy the occasion and make sure you have a big pot of coffee at hand - it's gonna be a late one.

Enjoying What You Do

2011-01-19T21:57:00.004Z

Ever since I was a teenager I've always been looking ahead, planning and thinking about my next steps and whilst I'm sure this has helped my career and assisted me in numerous ways I can't underestimate how exhausting it's been.

It may sound ridiculous but continuously setting yourself goals is a draining experience, but despite this we tend to surround ourselves in this type of environment. At work we often have deadlines to hit or sales targets to achieve and whilst we maybe rewarded temporarily with the odd bonus or tap on the back, the feeling of achievement can often be short lived with the ominous return to the norm a formality.

So why am I rambling on about this?

Well, a recent post on the Betfair Forum gave examples of two typical Betfair users. it then poised the question as to which type would be most likely to give this lark a crack full-time due to their personal circumstances. The types were...

TYPE 1 - 21 Years old, just finished uni but can't get a job (except maybe in a call centre) as every other Tom, Dick & Harry also has a worthless degree these days, no dependants, living at home with mum & dad, not paying rent, laundry done, meals cooked, use of a car (free of charge), not even paying for the internet, gap in CV could be easily explained.

TYPE 2 - 42 years of age, married, 2 children that are approaching university age, mortgage still being paid, very securely employed with 15 years service, currently earning £60k + bonus + car, final salary pension scheme, etc. etc (you get the picture).

The author then goes onto say.....

TYPE 1 would probably be happy to give it a whirl with £500 but the other guy is going to earn over £1m in the next 18 years if he just sits it out until his pension kicks in. Possibly a slightly more difficult decision for him and a different safety net requirement.

I'm not so sure I agree with the conclusion. With little life experience I think I'd be more concerned that the 21 year old would waste his early twenties barking up the wrong tree only to find out too late that he hasn't got anything to go to if the playing field changed quickly. Surely, giving up a 60k job with all the perks is much riskier though? What about all that security? All good points but in my mind the author failed to include that the second guy probably works 60-70 hours per week, travels around the country/world, is bored stupid and never gets to see his kids grow up and spend quality time with his wife.

That's some sacrifice and as someone who's recently taken a sabbatical from the day job I'm happy to say that I feel more relaxed and content than ever. I'm still working hard but as it's on my terms I'm appreciating every day and noticing things that I never did whilst making the daily round trip from 7am to 7pm. I've also started noticing more life opportunities and from a gambling point of view started making many more 'better' decisions.

Surely this is what life's all about? Long may it last :-)

Unbeatable Patriots?

2011-01-08T11:52:00.005Z

It's that time again, the NFL play-offs are here and I just love it. Long time readers will know that every year I compile my rankings on the remaining 12 teams and this year is only different for one reason - I've put in more effort!

If all games were being played at a neutral venue, this is how I'd rank the teams (current Betfair odds in brackets):

1. New England Patriots (2.96)

2. Green Bay Packers (18)

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (7.60)

4. New Orleans Saints (12.50)

5. Philadelphia Eagles (14.50)

6. Indianapolis Colts (24)

7. New York Jets (34)

8. Baltimore Ravens (19)

9. Atlanta Falcons (7.60)

10. Kansas City Chiefs (75)

11. Chicago Bears (14)

12. Seattle Seahawks (210)

So, can anyone beat the Patriots? The short answer is I believe they can, but conditions need to be right and the opposition will need to be of a certain make-up. It could be that I'll only oppose them when/if they get to the Superbowl, as with home advantage they tend to dominate more than other teams and that's where they'll be playing in both games prior to the big one if they keep winning.

Is there any value elsewhere? I think so, but for my money it comes in the NFC. Green Bay, New Orleans and Philadelphia all have inflated prices as they have to get past their Wild Card matches, but despite this I've taken positions on each of them with a view of trading out should one of them get to the final match. Unfortunately, Green Bay and Philadelphia play each tomorrow, but as I can't pick a winner I'm happy to have them both on my side.

One last thing, watch out for Kansas City (2.58) to turn over Baltimore (1.61). Remember, you heard it here first ;-)

Join The List

2010-12-31T10:44:00.007Z

With the start of a new year just a round the corner it's often a time for us to reflect and take stock. At the same time we like to look forward to what the future holds, but unfortunately, some of us can't look that much further ahead.

A few months ago I read about the plight of a young 23 year old lady named Victoria Tremlett who suffers from Cystic Fibrosis and who is currently waiting for a double lung transplant to transform here life. Now, most of us would crawl under a rock, feel sorry for ourselves and generally retreat from society but not 'Tor' - she's made it her mission to raise awareness of her 'life on the list' and has campaigned tirelessly throughout 2010 for people in the UK to join the Organ Donation Register.

She's still waiting, and she's not the only one. In the UK it's not compulsory to be a donor and the the sad fact is that somebody would have to die for anyone on the list to receive an organ transplant. Whilst an unexpected death would be a terrible situation to face I can't help but feel that I'd like to help someone 'live on' after I've gone.

So this is an appeal to my readers. To join the list and be able to help others if the worst should happen then click here.

If you want to follow Victoria's story then you can also read her Blog or follow here on Twitter.

Hopefully I haven't put too much of a downer on your celebrations, and I wish you all a very happy and prosperous New Year!

Buffoon Boycott

2010-12-26T13:38:00.002Z

Congratulations England. A fantastic first day brought embarrassment to the Aussies and also a well known ageing commentator.

Geoffrey Boycott has been around for donkeys years and whilst he may have been a quality player, how much longer can he milk the BBC out of tax payers money by providing expert analysis?

If any of you were listening to 'Five Live' last night then you'll already know what I'm talking about. Boycott started sledging the England team after just 12 minutes play and came out with brash statements such as, "I can't see England winning this" and "I'm supposed to know what I'm talking about, that's why I'm an expert."

You really need to listen for yourself, so click this link and listen from 42 minutes to 48 minutes. The great thing is that this period also covers the fall of the first Aussie wicket, which is very amusing after his earlier comments.

In the end he couldn't have been more wrong - England put on a clinic and the Aussies folded to 98 all out. Boycott should hang up his microphone for good.

Tough At The Top

2010-12-21T21:34:00.006Z

I watch quite a bit of rugby but I haven't seen a tackle as bad as the one Xavier Rush made on England International Courtney Lawes at the weekend for a long time. He nearly took his head off! Click here to see it.

Elsewhere, Phil Taylor has stumbled through his first round match at the PDC World Darts Championships. It's crazy that quite a few TV pundits are now suddenly questioning his credentials. I accept that players in any sport will never hit the dizzy heights forever, but write off Taylor at your peril. His price has drifted on Betfair to a very tempting 2.18 from 1.75, but I can't help but think that the 'Sports Personality of the Year' nomination may have distracted him a little.

Snow Problem

2010-12-19T14:20:00.008Z

With the snow putting many of the weekends sporting clashes 'out of action', it's given me the opportunity to review whether I should continue posting my Premier League ratings on the blog.

The initial reason for putting them on here was to generate thoughts and accumulate some feedback. As that hasn't materialised I'm not sure if there's that much interest despite the positive results. So with this in mind is there any point in cluttering up the blog with uninteresting content?

I appreciate that quite a few of my readers may not want to read about Football all the time so what's the answer?

Well, you've probably noticed the yellow banner above this post - I've set-up a mailing list. This helps me solve 3 issues; it frees up the blog again for other things, it will show me if there's any interest in my ratings and it also gives me the opportunity to present the information in a nicer fashion. Here's an example...

With a busy Christmas period coming up it also ensures that anybody who subscribes won't miss my selections. I won't take it personally if I get little response but there's no charge and I won't share your personal information so you haven't got anything to lose.

Colin Lloyd Loses It

2010-12-18T10:03:00.005Z

One of the funniest things I've seen in sport for a while happened last night during the first round of the PDC World Darts Championships.

Colin Lloyd, a one-time world number one, totally lost the plot and punched the dart board during his match-up with German Andree Welge.

Unfortunately for Lloyd, even with his fist he was nowhere near the treble 20 :-)

If you missed it then click here to watch. It's even better in slow motion!

Winter Wonderland

2010-12-17T10:00:00.009Z

After picking 3 out of 4 right results last weekend I'm happy that my ratings are continuing to move in the right direction. With the Man Utd v Arsenal game also a close affair maybe I was a little unlucky not to have a clean sweep? Maybe, maybe not, but one things for sure - I've never been as profitable from betting on Football and that is giving me a lot of encouragement. Here are my latest statistics for the season:

Bets : 58

Won : 36 (62%)

Lost : 22 (38%)

Average Odds : 2.52

And so onto this week....

Blackpool v Tottenham: The only game to stand-out and offer any value according to my figures is this one and once again it would appear that Ian Holloway's men are being neglected. Both teams are very closely rated on 4 match form with Tottenham having a slightly better away/home bias but is this enough to justify odds of 1.70? I don't think so, and with Blackpool having strong performances over the last 2 games there's a chance they could steal all 3 points on Sunday. Conclusion: Lay Tottenham @ 1.70

Even Stevens

2010-12-08T20:19:00.009Z

I was very pleased with Everton's late equaliser against Chelsea last weekend as it meant another profitable week for my new Premier League ratings, but I'm not getting ahead of myself. If I can finish the season in profit then I'll accept that maybe I'm onto something but for the time being I intend to keep stakes relatively small and just learn as much as I can in the process.

For the record though, here are the full statistics for the season to date:

Bets : 54

Won : 33 (61%)

Lost : 21 (39%)

Average Odds : 2.47

Now onto this weekend:

From that table you can probably identify quite a few equally matched teams squaring up this week. Maybe a great day for some score draws? I'm going to reserve judgement until Friday when the prices will have firmed up but be sure to come back as I'll be updating this post with my value picks then. In the meantime, here's the latest form table:

UPDATE - 10/12/2010

Aw shucks! Now I know nobody is reading this as nobody spotted my mistake when I posted my statistics. I would dearly love average odds of 2.90 but as yet I can only manage 2.47. It was an honest typo so please accept my apologies.

Here's the latest odds from Betfair:

So what do I think the weekend holds in store? Okay, from the top....

Everton v Wigan: If I wasn't using these ratings then I wouldn't have even considered this bet. Not much in it between the two sides in both the 4 match supremacy and home/away form (Everton slightly stronger on both) so to discover a juicy draw price of 4.50 means there's only one thing to do. Conclusion: Draw @ 4.50

Stoke v Blackpool: Blackpool seem to be completely underestimated every week according to my ratings. Stoke seem to be priced extremely short when comparing the statistics and with both sets of results very consistent over the last 4 games it didn't take me long to decide to oppose them. Conclusion: Lay Stoke @ 1.67

West Ham v Man City: Another match where I'm pleasantly surprised by the prices available. Man City have been very solid form over the last 4 games and are completely dominant (23.75 v 11.50). Their away form is also superior to West Ham's form this season (21.25 v 15.00) so the 1.95 for an away win seems very appealing. Conclusion: Back Man City @ 1.95

Man Utd v Arsenal: A titanic clash with the 2nd and 3rd placed teams in my form table matching up. Not surprisingly the last 4 games for both sides are packed with strong performances and there's no separating them when it comes to home/away form either. The price of 3.60 on the draw is just big enough to gain my interest. Conclusion: Draw @ 3.60

Spotting Value

2010-12-02T21:00:00.013Z

Bolton came to my rescue last weekend to pull back a 2 goal deficit and secure a draw at home to Blackpool. At odds of 4.30 the price seemed a bit high as in my book 3.00 (approx 33%) would have been about right. Even though there were other games of interest, that match turned out to be my only bet as the prices on the other short-list selections didn't provide any value and at the end of the day that's what it's all about.

So can we pick any short-list selections this week?

I'll update this post tomorrow with the latest prices and my thoughts, but I'm really interested to see if any of you lot can highlight some opportunities. There could be quite a few in there so let me know by leaving a comment!

UPDATE - 03/12/2010

Thanks to Matt for taking the time to post his thoughts on my latest ratings. Now it's my turn!

Here's the latest odds (Blackpool v Man Utd has been postponed so this match has been excluded) :

There's a lot going on there but these are the stand-outs from my perspective:

Birmingham v Tottenham: Rafael van der Vaart is out for Spurs so can the London side perform without him? He makes a big difference to the team but with a huge 4 game supremacy (26.25 v 16.25) and superior home/away form I think they can get over the line at a generous price of 2.20. Conclusion: Tottenham win.

Chelsea v Everton: These teams are closely matched on last 4 games and home/away form but it does worry me that both have had a stand-out shocking performance recently (Chelsea 14 and Everton's 9). However 5.10 is a big price and that is enough to sway me towards my decision. Conclusion: Draw

Man City v Bolton: A very similar match-up to the previous game although Bolton probably have a slightly better chance of pulling off a victory. I don't think they will mind so I'll plump for the 4.20 that says it'll end in a stalemate. Conclusion: Draw

Sunderland v West Ham: This was a difficult decision - is the 1.91 on offer for Sunderland to win value? Their form beats West Ham on both counts but this doesn't feel as solid a selection as the 2.20 on Tottenham. Ideally I would be looking for a price above 2.00 but the Hammers have been dismal this season. Conclusion: Sunderland win.

An important part of any betting plan is to manage your risk and stake correctly so for your information the value of my bets decrease for selections with higher odds. However, they're all in proportion with the size of my bank. I'm not saying this is the best way of maximising any edge I may have as I could adopt a 'Kelly' approach but it's working for me right now so I'll stick with it for the time being.

One For The Money

2010-11-26T11:49:00.008Z

Thanks to those of you who took the time to comment on my last post. It's nice to know someone is taking a look at my ratings and all feedback is appreciated. It even got a mention on Cassini's excellent blog 'Green All Over' which is high praise indeed, although I'm a little stumped as to how our ratings differ so much. If we were picking names out of a hat we'd have ended up with a closer match!

So, onto this weekend....

and here are the current Betfair prices...

What are my thoughts? Well, there's a few matches that raise my interest but this one especially:

Bolton v Blackpool - One thing that I didn't mention previously was my liking for consistency. If a team has one 'green' performance' but then backs it up with a 'yellow' and then a couple of 'reds' it shows signs that they are unreliable. These 2 teams are the exact opposite. Over the last 4 matches both have strung together greens and yellows which leads me to think this could be a close game especially when I look at the respective home and away averages which are 19.29 and 19.39. Bolton do have a good 4 game supremacy difference though (24.00 to 19.50) and Blackpool's scores do seem to be on a dipping trend so it will be the prices that decide what to do from here. Bolton to win at 1.61 (62%) seems too short but on the other hand I don't fancy Blackpool to win. That leaves the draw at 4.30 which represents just over a 23% chance. For me, I think there maybe some value here. With the par price for the draw in Premier League matches normally around 3.40 is the market missing a trick?

That's my insight into the reading of one match but I'm interested to hear your thoughts on any of the other games. Do my ratings highlight any other possibilities?

Ghost Town

2010-11-23T21:08:00.006Z

Well, what did I expect? Not one reply to my last post! Not surprising really as I know I don't blog very often these days, but I'll try once more.

For the record, my thoughts for the last round of games only threw up one solid opportunity and that was for Blackpool to beat Wolves. Why? Well, the first thing I try to identify is for one team to have a strong supremacy over the last 4 games and Blackpool fitted the bill with 3 strong performances and an average rating of 21.00. Wolves on the other hand had 3 poor performances on the bounce and only one strong performance which was 4 matches ago. Their average was only 16.75.

Secondly, I look at the average home and away ratings for the relevant teams for the season to date. I'm looking for the supremacy to continue here and in this example it did. Blackpool had an average home rating of 19.80 compared to Wolves' away rating of 13.00 - that's quite a difference!

Finally, after spotting a mismatch it's all down to the prices on offer. If I get to this stage then I'm confident that I've been able to narrow the result down to a 50/50 shot so if I can get better than odds of 2.00 then I've a short-listed selection. The odds on a Blackpool win was 2.48 and that was good enough for me so I made the bet.

Now I'm not preaching that this is a fool-proof system as there are other factors to consider (like the loss of a key player etc.) but as a rule the idea is to spot value over the long term through a few simple steps. It's not rocket science but there's quite a bit of method behind the ratings so I'm hopeful the run can continue.

For those of you who might still be interested here's my latest form table taking us up to the 22/11/2010. Some unexpected teams are towards the top:

Something To Chew On

2010-11-20T12:35:00.014Z

Since the beginning of the football season I've been busy working on a rating system for the Premier League. It's now reached a stage where I feel it offers a level of reliability and has to date enabled my to generate an ROI of 28%. Not bad considering this is all new to me!

So this is how it works. Below is a snippet showing this weekends Premier League games (clicking on it should make it bigger).

The most recent games are nearest to the team name and have been assigned a score from 4 to 34. Naturally the higher the better, but to help there's a traffic light system. A green background indicates a strong performance whilst a yellow one is average and a red poor. Simple eh?

The table also then shows the average score for that team over the last 4 games (Ave) and the average score for the home team playing at home this season (Ho.Ave) and vice versa for the away team (Aw.Ave).

By representing performances in this fashion it should be easier for me to highlight a team on form and when compared to prices it should identify value bets.

Here's the most current pre-match prices for these matches on Betfair:

So how do you interpret these performances against the prices - do you see any value based on my ratings?

Geek's Toy - Children In Need

2010-11-17T13:03:00.008Z

After announcing that the Geeks Toy Trading Software will continue to remain completely free for 49 weeks of 2011, the Geek is also going to extreme lengths to raise money for 'Children In Need'.
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As part of the fundraising there are some excellent prizes up for grabs, including £250 cash and a Betfair API subscription worth £2000.
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In addition, The Geek is running a charity plugathon, so if you're a sports / Betfair blogger / site owner and want to help raise money for good causes then check this out.
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On top of all this version 1.1 of the 'The Toy' was released recently and now includes advanced charting and market overview features. This combined with it's reliability and speed make it the essential partner for any trading session and I'm happy to endorse it.
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Let's raise as much money as possible and thanks to you all in advance.
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All the best,
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Mark
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Splash

2010-10-01T11:07:00.006+01:00

The Ryder Cup started this morning and then stopped. Not completely surprising when you consider that this massive televised event is being played during one of the wettest months in the Welsh calendar. Hugely disappointing as after visiting the course for the Wales Open in June I had all my prep notes ready for a big day.

Not surprisingly, the hard to follow format and difficulty in following four balls per match have also led to some sparse liquidity in the markets. Plenty of people out there following the 'wait and see' approach I think.

Elsewhere, I've decided to join the 'twitter' revolution. I know I'm about 5 years behind everyone else but as I don't religiously carry around a mobile phone I've never felt the need to but my thoughts softened a little this week after dropping in on Ian Poulter - he seems a pretty cool guy.

Not sure how it'll go but if you'd like to be kept up to date with some ramblings on sports trading and things in general then go here.

The Better Team Won

2010-07-22T11:16:00.001+01:00

It’s a common phrase used nearly all the time by TV pundits, but the question I like to ask is, “did they really?”

First impressions can be misleading, as our memories have the convenient ability to block out certain inalienable truths and to only recall the key moments of an event or the extraordinary emotions that we associated with them. Try thinking back to the last time your favourite team experienced a sporting high – were they really that good? Or was it just a moment of genius or perhaps your fondness for the result that has given you that impression?

Why is this important? Well these misconceptions can lead to inefficient markets as odds compilers are commonly influenced by past results and not necessarily past performance. Spotting these inefficiencies can therefore have a hugely positive effect on future trading results.

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Rocky Woods

2010-07-13T23:40:00.000+01:00

On the eve of the Open Golf Championship at St. Andrews, I can't help but feel a little cynical about the upcoming events. This time last year Tiger Woods was continuing to dominate the sport and nobody looked like stopping him but after the bizarre events of recent months the mask has fallen and an air of fallibility has wafted over him.

Or has it? True, he's looked a shadow of his former self in recent tournaments, but if you were his closest advisor would you have recommended that he resume where he left off prior to the unveiling of his double life? Or instead, would you have gently suggested that the road back should be a little more arduous in order to win back the fans and the sponsors? In true Hollywood fashion, is it now time for the greatest player the world has ever known to be crowned once more at the home of golf?

To me it smells of being a little conspired and as he demolished the field in his last two visits to this course you won't find me laying the 8's on Betfair.

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Tough Chase

2010-07-03T14:16:00.001+01:00

Yes, I did survive my day of golf but it was as tough as I was expecting. After hitting my first shot at 5.25am, it wasn't until 9.30pm that I was able to sink my last putt. Parts of my body that I didn't even know existed had started aching at that point and I was very glad to get to bed that night. Macmillan raised lots of cash though so it was well worth it, and who knows, maybe I'll give it another go next year.

For what it's worth, I'm currently watching England struggle to contain Australia as they come to the end of their innings in today's One Day International. With the score now at 258/5 in the 49th over it'll be a very tough chase for the home side although the Aussie price of 1.44 does seem a bit low. I'll be watching to see if their price is able to get above 1.60 when England get to bat as that would seem like a value price from here.

Good luck with whatever you're up to on this sunny Saturday.

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Summer Loving

2010-06-20T20:12:00.001+01:00

Finally, we have what I would call a normal British summer. After a week of little/no rain and with no further rain forecast until at least next Sunday we can all enjoy the outdoors.

Or can we?

If you're anything like me then probably not as with the good weather you can kiss goodbye to rain affected cricket matches, so with a game on everyday it's all systems go. I can't complain as I need to make the most of this time of year but I can admit to being a little envious when my mates get talking about spending lazy afternoons in beer gardens etc.

However, all is not lost as tomorrow I'll be playing golf in the glorious sunshine in aid of McMillan Cancer Support. I lost my mother to breast cancer 8 years ago and feel very strongly that anyone unfortunate to be diagnosed with the disease should be supported and comforted as much as possible.

Hopefully, my contribution will make a small difference but it won't be plain sailing as the challenge is to play 4 rounds of golf on 4 different courses all in one day. That's 20 miles if I hit the ball straight, and with my swing I'm odds against!

Come to think of it, if I'm to get up at 4am then I need to go to bed.

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In The Rough

2010-06-18T22:28:00.003+01:00

I watched the hugely interesting documentary, 'The Rise & Fall Of Tiger Woods' last night and boy was it an eye opener. I already knew that Tiger's late father Earl had crafted his career but was astonished at the lengths he'd gone too to ensure his son had the best chance of success. We've all heard of pushy parents but that guy took things to a different level! Maybe he went too far, but there's no doubting that what he did helped to create the World's greatest golfer.

The programme got me thinking. Do we all have the capacity to improve? If I'd practised for the same number of hours as Tiger, would the rate of my improvement have been as consistent and as rapid as his? The instinctive answer is no and the stock response is that we need natural talent but how do we know? Am I succeeding at trading because it suits my personal attributes, because I work harder than others or a due to a mixture of both?

One thing I can say is that you can't beat attention to detail, and after investing more time this year analysing my performance and studying the game of cricket it seems to be paying off.

Now, Who once said, "the harder I work the luckier I get?"

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Blah Blah Blah

2010-06-15T21:56:00.001+01:00

One of the advantages of having this iPad is the ability to casually monitor the Betfair odds either on the move or whilst casually lounging on the sofa. This is something I used to enjoy doing when I had a laptop but after 30 minutes it used to get uncomfortably hot and the noise used to get slightly irritating.

I no longer have these problems as this nifty device makes no noise and doesn't heat up - can you guess it's my new best friend?

There are some drawbacks though, with the temptation for making 'leisure' bets extremely inviting. It's amazing how markets like the Eurovision song contest and Big Brother suddenly become so much more attractive when you you can strike a bet at a touch of a button.

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The Wonders Of Technology

2010-06-14T23:48:00.002+01:00

I know, I know, it's been a while but after the lack of interest shown in my live coverage of T20 I figured that I wouldn't be missed too much.

A lot has been going on but for those of you interested, the IPL didn't turn into a bonanza for me but more of a damage limitation exercise following a couple of extreme losses early in the tournament. I plead guilty to being way too confident and not managing my risk so it should have been expected that I would pay. On the plus side those losses made me re-focus and May became my best ever month so once again every cloud seems to have a silver lining.

So why am I posting now?

Well I've just bought an ipad and thought I'd check out how easy it is to post from tapping away whilst watching TV. If this looks have decent when I get to look at it on a PC then this maybe the way forward as finding the time to fire up the computer and login etc. was just becoming too time consuming.

Now, how do I get someone to write this stuff for me? :-)

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Kolkata v Bangalore - LIVE From 10.00am

2010-03-14T07:22:00.000Z

Kolkata v Bangalore - IPL

Next LIVE Event

2010-03-12T17:23:00.006Z

With the IPL now underway, it would be a shame not to cover at least one of the games on the opening weekend.
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With this in mind, let's give the Kolkata v Bangalore game a go on Sunday morning. The match is due to start at 10.30am but I'll be commencing my coverage from 10 o'clock.
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I'm trying to work my way into the tournament slowly but by then I think I'll be up to top speed!
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Hopefully see you then :-)
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Opportunity Knocks

2010-03-07T18:15:00.004Z

Christmas has come early! After weeks of speculation, it was finally revealed this week that the IPL (Indian Premier League) will be broadcast on ITV 4 throughout March and April. With it being a 60 match tournament, not having access to a 'live' feed would have been a serious handicap, but there's no need for me to fret anymore - Lalit Modi stuck to his word. Hopefully the extra work that I've conducted in analysis and a new found confidence in the way I trade will provide the results that will kick-start my cricket season. If you've not watched/traded Twenty20 cricket before then it's well worth a look - it has the perfect combination of being highly volatile whilst at the same time the markets squelch with liquidity.....mmmmm.
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Following my last post I've also decided to continue with covering some of the matches but I'll probably invite those of you happy to participate to go 'unmoderated'. This will hopefully promote more discussion during the quiet periods and allow me to concentrate on my trading a little more.
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Roll on Friday - I can't wait!
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Scratching My Head

2010-02-22T19:46:00.005Z

When I came up with the idea of covering events LIVE on this blog, the sport I expected to be featuring the most was cricket - especially Twenty20 cricket. Afterall, this is where 80% of my profits come from and where I feel my knowledge of the markets and the sport itself is at it's best.
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With this in mind you'll have to forgive me for feeling a little deflated after I covered the T20 game between Pakistan and England last Friday - it just didn't work!
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Don't get me wrong, thanks to the 29 of you who did attend, but it would seem that I hadn't realised how much thought and effort went into my decisions. With it also being quite a speedy game, trying to trade and type just didn't mix and in the end I gave neither 100%. If I'm honest, I probably missed a host of opportunities as I was too busy concentrating on adding a capital letter to a noun or correcting a spelling mistake!
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So, I have a dilemma. The cricket season is about to kick-off big style with the IPL, the T20 World Cup and the all new, singing and dancing Friends Provident T20 tournament on the horizon. I want to keep the coverage going but I also don't want to jeopardise my profits.
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What do I do? Answers on a postcard....
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England v Pakistan - LIVE From 1.45pm

2010-02-19T07:31:00.001Z

England v Pakistan - 1st T20

Next LIVE Event

2010-02-17T18:59:00.003Z

After last weeks hectic round of Premier League darts matches I'm very pleased to say that the next live event I'll be covering will be a game of cricket!

With the T20 World Cup taking place in the West Indies during April/May, many International teams are currently trying to cram in a few warm-up games wherever they can. As the IPL will consume most of the cricketing calendar over the next couple of months, England and Pakistan have taken the opportunity to meet up in Dubai on Friday. The weather is not often a problem there so I'm confident we'll get a full game!

The match starts at 2pm but I'll be here from 1.45pm. I really need to pick up my performance as until now February has been far from kind.

Premier League Darts - LIVE from 7.00pm

2010-02-11T13:12:00.001Z

Premier League Darts

Next LIVE Event

2010-02-08T19:50:00.005Z

Pure greed ensured that I had my most miserable weekend for sometime. Not only did Wales go down to England in the rugby (which is bad enough on it's own) but for some reason I managed to squander a decent profit in the One Day International between Australia and the West Indies AND go all-in on a whim that Scotland would give the French a run for their money at Murrayfield. On both occasions I was left with the dreaded phrase,"how did I let that happen?" running through my head.
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So after my best ever January, I'm now playing catchup in a month that occupies my quiet time of the year. Not ideal, but how can I let this spoil my plans for my next LIVE event? The show must go on!
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With this in mind I hope you can join me on Thursday evening for the kick-off of the 2010 Premier League darts season. I'm not going to kid you that it will be a trading masterclass - it's won't be - but I do enjoy this format and the high paced action always throws up decent money making opportunities.
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Coverage will start on my blog from 7pm.
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As a side note - after the New Orleans Saints stunning victory in the Superbowl, maybe I should re-think my playoff ranking system? :-)
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Value Seeker

2010-02-02T20:39:00.003Z

I was hoping to cover the Twenty20 International between Australia and Pakistan on Friday morning but unfortunately Caden has been summonsed for a hospital check-up. Nothing to worry about I hope, but he does seem to be getting out of breath very quickly after little effort for a 2 year old. Perhaps we're just hyper-sensitive or maybe he just takes after his Dad?!?
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Whilst I decide on what will be my next live event, why don't you find out your Risk Intelligence Quotient? That sounds a bit posh, but in layman's terms it's your ability to estimate probabilities accurately. The test takes about 10 minutes and gives you a score out of 100. As this ability would seem key to becoming a successful trader I'm keen to find out what your scores are - are you lousy traders getting the expected poor marks and are you superstars getting perfect scores?
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It's interesting stuff but let's see if there's any truth behind it.
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Team Work

2010-01-27T20:19:00.008Z

Trading the NFL LIVE on Sunday night turned out to be good fun and if the reader statistics are to be believed, it would appear that 53 of you joined me to watch the game. Those are pretty good numbers which gives me encouragement that quite a few of you like the idea of me giving opinions as I trade.

As for the match itself, it started the way I expected with the Colts finding it difficult to break down the Jets defense and I was able to capitalise on this to end up with a medium green figure. Unfortunately, the Jets couldn't keep up their good start but fair play to Cassini for forecasting a comeback by the home team - it ended almost bang on his pre-match prediction of a 12 point difference. If you'd like to see exactly what was said then you can review the comments at anytime by going to the post and clicking on the section under the heading. Thanks to those of you who took the time out to be there - I really enjoyed it.

My trading calendar looks a bit thin this week so it's likely that the next event won't be until the beginning of February. If you want to make sure don't miss it then why don't you sign up for my updates?

Jets @ Colts - LIVE from 7.45pm

2010-01-24T17:34:00.001Z

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts

Next LIVE Event

2010-01-23T10:20:00.014Z

Thanks to everyone that attended my first event last night. I really enjoyed it but only time will tell if it will have an affect on my trading results. Obviously maintaining my profits comes first, but if I'm honest I think I'd have lost money on that game anyway - it just didn't fit the profile of the type of game that pays off. In fact I might have lost less last night due to the distraction of blogging at the same time!

I hope those of you who did follow my commentary had fun though. The idea is that it should add to the experience of following the event and if you can pick up any pointers along the way then great.

So, what's next? Well, with the NFL playoffs reaching it's peak it would be criminal not to cover at least one match so my next LIVE event will be........

NEW YORK JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Prior to the start of the playoffs this is how I ranked the top 12 teams (Betfair odds at the time in brackets) :

1. New York Jets (48)

2. Green Bay Packers (22)

3. Cincinnati Bengals (44)

4. Baltimore Ravens (34)

5. San Diego Chargers (5.60)

6. New England Patriots (15.50)

7. Indianapolis Colts (4)

8. Philadelphia Eagles (32)

9. Minnesota Vikings (9.20)

10. Dallas Cowboys (13.50)

11. Arizona Cardinals (32)

12. New Orleans Saints (5.80)

Some surprising positions there like New Orleans & Cincinnati!

With the Jets the outsiders of the bunch I'm delighted they've got this far but can they go all the way?

Kick off is at 8pm on Sunday 24th January, but coverage will start on my blog from 7.45pm.

Munster v Northampton - LIVE From 7.30pm

2010-01-22T18:43:00.003Z

Munster v Northampton

First LIVE Event

2010-01-21T19:47:00.007Z

Thanks to you all for your enthusiastic reaction to my last post. It's great to be welcomed back.

Okay, let's get this party started but before we do I'd like to make it clear how i plan to make this work.

The LIVE blog isn't meant to be a chat room. It's a place where you'll be able to observe my thoughts whilst I'm trading during an event. Occasionally, I'll look to interact (e.g. ask for your opinion/feedback) but a lot of the time you'll just see me posting what I think will happen, what I intend to do or anything else that's on my mind at the time.

Please also bear in mind that I'll only be able to reply to a certain amount of questions when an event is in-play as I'll be working at the same time! If you leave any comments I'll try my best to reply to as many as I can, but this will depend on the number of requests and on how busy I am. In a worst case scenario, I may suspend readers from posting any comments so that you're not left waiting for a reply that is unlikely to appear.

Whilst I'll also try to update the LIVE blog frequently I'm not committing to updating every couple of minutes. At busy times there could be substantial gaps in my posts but if this is likely then I'll try to let you know in advance. Try to think of it as a companion!

Lastly, I don't want to misguide you into thinking I'll be detailing every trade that I place. Sometimes the market moves so fast I have to react and this is more likely to happen in fast moving sports such as Rugby and Darts. Instead I'll be attempting to paint a more general picture of what's going on and hopefully you'll find something in there that can be of benefit!

Above all else, please don't hold me liable for any losses you may incur from following my actions. I make plenty of mistakes so if you listen to any of my observations then it has to be your decision as to whether you place any trades and this must be conducted at entirely your own risk.

Phew! That's about it, so let's see how this idea works out.

My first LIVE event will be........

MUNSTER v NORTHAMPTON

Kick off is at 8pm on Friday 22nd January, but coverage will start on my blog from 7.30pm.

I hope you can make it, and it'll be interesting to see if any other bloggers introduce this approach over the coming weeks.

I'm Back

2010-01-19T21:51:00.016Z

It's been a while! It's seems a little strange to be back and posting on here after nearly a year so I'm really hoping some of you are still out there :-)
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So, why have I returned?
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Well, before I answer it's worthwhile remembering why I stopped in the first place. At the time I felt it was important to take a break (from blogging - not trading) as the content of what I was writing had served it's purpose. In addition, a number of similar blogs were appearing and I felt the concept was starting to get a little stale. I made a promise to myself at the time that if I did come back to the blogosphere then it would only be to do something different. I had no idea what the guise would be and I didn't know if that time would ever come, but over the last few weeks some thoughts have started turning in my head which have got me excited again.
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What are they?
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As previous readers will know, I'm predominantly an in-play sports trader whose majority of profits come from one day cricket. I love in-play trading but one of the problems I had last year was that I often felt detached with anyone reading and as a result ended up writing the same type of things as with my shocking memory I'd forget what I'd done and why etc. This was all well and good, but in a perfect world I'd have liked to have communicated at the time, whilst in the moment. I could have used Twitter, MSN or utilised Forums much more but none of those ticked the boxes as I felt I wouldn't be able to control the content of what I wanted to say or manage the participants who would be involved. In the end, I didn't pursue these thoughts any further.
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That is, until now.
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The truth is I've now discovered a platform that will allow me to deliver what I've just described and I can do this all from the comfort of my very own blog. In effect, I intend to publish a LIVE blog as I trade LIVE events and have you for company if you wish to join me. It would be for a trial period, but my longer term intention would be to identify individuals with a professional outlook who could form a small team committed to increasing trading profits. I like the company and trading can be lonely especially on an event that lasts a few hours :-)
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This may not work, and I'm conscious that I don't want it to affect my trading, but I've seen enough to think to myself, "why not give it a go?"
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So, the next bit's down to you. There's two things I'd like to know; are you still out there and would you be interested in reading/participating during live events?
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Please leave a reply in the comments section of this post and if there are enough of you interested we'll kick something off soon.
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All the best, as always.
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Mark
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Closing Scene

2009-03-14T08:40:00.016Z

After blogging for the last 26 months I've come to the conclusion that this is where my story will end.

I've taken the last couple of weeks to decide if this is the right thing to do and the truth is I'm finding it very hard to motivate myself to jot down my thoughts. Generally, I've realised that I no longer have anything interesting to say! At the beginning of this journey I was experiencing lots of new situations and emotions so getting them out of my system through writing a blog proved very helpful, but now the thought of having to think of something to say is proving to be a distraction that I think I can live without. Initially, I had two objectives and as they've now been achieved it seems the right time to call it a day. This isn't to say that I'm going to stop trading though. My plans on that front remain the same and although it's been difficult to get through the quiet Winter months I'm optimistic that the Summer will generate a good return.
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Just in case you're wondering, I haven't 'done' my bank, and to round things off here's a summary of my results since my last post :

Since Last Update P/L: £277.29

Cricket : £35.13

Darts : £68.11

Golf : £55.99

Rugby Union : £220.46

Soccer : £35.96

Premium Charge : £68.10

May I take this opportunity to thank you all for reading and to those of you that have left me comments along the way they've been very much appreciated. For those who've also expressed concern with Caden's health, the good news is that he celebrated his 1st birthday on Wednesday (where has the time gone?) and now has a much better future to look forward to. Personally, I'd also like to thank you for your support during the dark times of last year - it meant a great deal.

As they say in Llandow - ciao for now...

(EXIT STAGE LEFT)

Artificial Intelligence

2009-02-27T16:50:00.026Z

Since Last Update P/L: £2.10
Monthly P/L: £1,007.43

It's funny what you can find by trawling through the recesses of unused folders on your hard drive. Yesterday I stumbled upon one of those forgotten files - a Classic IQ Test that I'd taken when visiting the old Tickle site a couple of years ago.

I wouldn't have described myself as a 'Visual Mathematician' previously, but after re-reading my results a lot of things seem to make sense:

"You have a strong ability to process visual-spatial and mathematical information. These skills combined with your strengths in logic are what make you a Visual Mathematician.

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You're able to understand patterns visually and in numbers. That means your mind can create a mental picture for any problem. In addition to that skill, you possess an intelligence that allows you to apply maths to that picture, too. That helps you manipulate multiple parts of the picture (or problem) to come up with a solution.

You have many skills that are critical to success and problem-solving. Your talents help you understand the "big picture," which is partly why people may turn to you for direction -- especially in the workplace. You flourish in environments where tasks are clearly defined, and you excel at improving processes and making things more efficient. Like Einstein, your ability to detect patterns and your skills in maths and logic, make it natural for you to come up with ideas and theories that simplify processes for everyone."

All job offers and public appearances considered - LOL! Seriously though, is it my ability to recognise patterns that make me well suited to trading? It seems a reasonable explanation, and as I'm also a Project Manager I'm glad to see that improving processes and making things more efficient should be one of my strengths.

Now, back to the usual stuff...

Trading has been slow over the last week and as I haven't been feeling too clever I decided to close the book on February to secure a profit of over a thousand pounds for the month. Achieving little milestones like that (especially in my off season) are important to me and allow me a pat on the back before concentrating on new challenges ahead. As it won't be long before I'm over-whelmed with a number of events to trade, this small break has been more than welcome.

Mr. Plod (my adopting name for the 'PC' - get it?) has continued to rear his ugly head so the losses on soccer and horse racing mentioned below are mainly my attempts at trying to duck the deductions. Here's my final results for February:

Darts : £66.10

Horse Racing : £4.06

Rugby Union : £14.48

Soccer : £18.87

Premium Charge : £59.75

Elsewhere, rumours are rife on the forums regarding Betfair's latest intentions. Allegedly, they are due to release a new product called 'Mini Games' very soon. Not content with enticing people via the casino and arcade, they are now internallly testing a product which will add fruit machines to your betting slip! So where you see Place Bet, My Bets, Rules & Help, you will also now see 'Mini Games' - just in case you were so addicted to losing money that you can't get a fix for another three minutes to the next race! I'll let you decide the ethics behind this one but it seems so bizarre how a company can change it's corporate strategy so quickly and purposefully turn full circle on it's loyal customers. Of course, this could all be 'hear say' but I wouldn't bet against it. If it does happen, then in my opinion Betfair must be struggling to fund their worldwide expansion.

Tugging Heart Strings

2009-02-16T19:22:00.012Z

Since Last Update P/L: £245.79

Monthly P/L: £1,009.53

I've never been able to figure out why some people always bet on their favourite team. After all, should your team lose you not only have to get over the reality that they're perhaps not as good as you thought, but your pockets are also a bit emptier than when the game started. A double whammy. Correction, a triple whammy, as if you follow a high profile team such as Man Utd, Chelsea etc. then the chances are your bet didn't didn't even offer value as the odds on offer were reduced by other casual 'blind' fanatics.

So what's the answer? Well, "don't bet" would be an acceptable one, but if the temptation is too great then how about backing the other team? This does sound a bit hard to swallow but it's exactly what I did on Saturday when Wales packed down to face England in the Six Nations. I had sweaty palms that England would put in a strong performance and thought that Wales' match odds price of 1.27 was way too short. A quick scan of the other markets then allowed me to notice that England were available at even money with a 10.5 point head start. My decision was made - I'd oppose Wales for the match and back England to cover the handicap. If Wales won by over 10.5 points then I'd be out of pocket to the sum of £65 (a loss that would be worth it!) but if England won or lost by less of a margin then I'd at least break even. A no lose situation in my eyes! By full time, the winning margin of 8pts fell exactly where I wanted :-)

Here's my latest results:

Cricket : £134.53

Darts : £264.02

Rugby Union : £16.72

Soccer : £95.87

Premium Charge : £73.61

Rewind?

2009-02-09T19:33:00.013Z

Since Last Update P/L: £132.77
Monthly P/L: £763.74

A question I've been asking myself recently is, "If I rewound the clock and only had £250 available to me, would I start this trading journey all over again?"

At this point I could just give you a quick answer, but let me pause for a moment to consider where I was then, and if I can, recall what my aims were at the time.

Gaining a steady income from gambling had long been a dream and I was getting fed up of winning, losing and then repeating the cycle for a small profit. It seemed as though I'd explored every system and I was a whisker away from declaring that it wasn't possible to make money (at least a reasonable amount) from this game. Then the 'Eureka' moment came when I realised that I didn't have to predict who would win a contest but just what would happen next. Whether this was during the next 30 minutes or 30 seconds didn't matter, as long as I called it right more often than not.

This saw a huge shift in my outlook and after spending some brief time putting together some strategies everything started to fall into place. I remember thinking at the time, "Why haven't I thought of this before?"

Over the next few months my initial feelings were proved correct and my extremely modest bankroll began to grow....quickly. Suddenly, everything felt possible and I could see a huge opportunity in front of me. How could I let it pass me by? Even though my gains were quite small at the time I always had a plan for where I was heading. By re-investing my winnings I'd be able to place bigger trades and make bigger profits - right?

To a degree this is how it's worked out, but it hasn't been easy. Sacrifices have been made as Nic will testify, but I feel it's been worth it as I'm continuing to make progress. However, I'm by no means at the destination yet. The carrot is still dangling in my front of my face and the window of opportunity is yet to close, but to answer my initial question, "Would I do it all again?"

Probably not. The Betfair Premium Charge has ended dreams before they've begun and with only a small amount of cash in my back pocket, I probably wouldn't have bothered putting in all the hard work. Unfortunately, I'm guessing that those of you reading this who are where I was then, will feel the same.

My recent results:

Cricket : £114.29

Horse Racing : £18.48

Losing It

2009-02-07T19:30:00.009Z

Since Last Post P/L: £630.97

Monthly P/L: £630.97

Caden has suffered from a bout of sickness and diarrhoea this week so with looking after him, fighting the snow and coping with the launch of a new product in work it's surprising I've been able to make any profit at all!

Following a nice win on the 1st ODI International between Australia and New Zealand I decided that I needed to investigate ways of lessening the Premium Charge burden. My initial thoughts were to put together a horse laying system that over a period of time returned a break even p&l with an even percentage of winners of losers. My first foray into this strategy ended in a small loss of £28.43 (which is more than I would have paid in terms of PC) but it's not an approach that can be judged on one day so I won't fret just yet. It is a sad state of affairs though when you have to consider how to lose in order to keep hold of profit.

With 'losing' firmly in my mindset I then thought to myself, "Hey, what the heck, why not take another look at Tennis?" and proceeded to spend a good few hours going through some simulated scenarios. Although the Movistar Open currently being held in Chile isn't Wimbledon, it served it's purpose and provided some enlightening moments. Although I'm still paying for my education I'm beginning to see some light at the end of the tunnel.

Here's a round-up of my results for February:

American Football : £12.60

Cricket : £434.79

Darts : £94.10

Horse Racing : £28.43

Rugby Union : £249.35

Tennis : £53.82

Premium Charge : £77.62

Moving Target

2009-01-31T14:23:00.005Z

Since Last Update P/L: £253.03

Monthly P/L: £1,008.37

Apologies for the lack of updates this week but it’s been a busy few days. Not so much for my trading activity but more to do with some odd jobs that needed taking care of.

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However, the I’m glad to report that January 2009 has developed into my most successful beginning to the year since I started this trading lark. In 2007 my winnings totalled £137.22 and in 2008 they only went up to £304.01, so to post a figure over £1,000 this year signifies that I’m continuing to move in the right direction. Okay, it didn’t all go to plan (Ulrika did win Celebrity Big Brother) but overall I’m happy with the return and with the rest of year promising plenty of cricketing action things are looking good.

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Looking back though, it’s funny how my thought process has changed over the last two years. Back then my goals were to pay the monthly telephone/electricity bill etc. and now I’m dreaming of new cars and fancy holidays! I guess there’s a lesson in there – targets should always be within reach but far enough away to keep you driven.

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Here’s my final results for January:

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Rugby Union : £138.13
Cricket : £132.81
Special Bets : £5.14
Poker : £1.48
Premium Charge : £24.53
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So what does February hold? Well, I’m generally expecting it to be another quiet month with the occasional highlight brightening up the wintry gloom. Most notably the Six Nations commences and my views on Wales defending the trophy haven’t changed. A lot will depend on their first game against Scotland – a win and momentum will rocket, defeat and 4th/5th position beckons. With their odds at around 3.25 to win the Championship I wouldn’t be tempted just yet.

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In keeping with the Rugby theme it shouldn’t be forgotten that the Super League starts on Friday. Leeds face new boys Celtic Crusaders in the first televised game and although I’d love the Bridgend based team to do well I can’t see it happening. If anyone disagrees, you can get 140 on Betfair for them to go on and win the Grand Final.

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Then there’s the Superbowl. Arizona have surprised everybody and although I’m already on Pittsburgh I wouldn’t put it past the Cardinals on taking the prize. I have an ‘icky’ feeling in my stomach that the underdogs may just come through so there’s a good chance I’ll hedge my bets at some point. Either way you can’t fault the event as a spectacle, and I’ll be staying up late to watch it.

Daylight Robbery

2009-01-22T19:56:00.012Z

Since Last Update P/L: £76.14
Monthly P/L: £755.34

I'm not in the best of moods right now following the discovery of my Betfair Premium Charge for last week - £76.14!

So that everyone that reads this post understands, let's make this clear. This is a charge that Betfair make even after they've taken commission AND one which incurs no risk to themselves!

To make that £400 profit I had to put big sums of money on the line (to me at least) and back my own judgement. I could have lost, but because I don't very often (through skill and hard work) I'm victimised and left feeling like an employee. The graph above shows all of my wins and losses for the month so far and you can see that the Premium Charges (the dark red columns) are currently clocking up most of the negative figures.

I know there are many other traders out there paying more than this but I still find it unbelievable how a company can change their business ethics and hike their charges up so much (and get away with it) practically overnight.

Until now I vowed to myself that I'd give Betfair the benefit of the doubt until I could at least judge for myself, but after the last couple of weeks I'm now convinced they're totally taking advantage of their position in the marketplace and extorting the people they've previously gone out of their way to attract! I'm not a happy bunny and with the cricket season fast approaching I really need to consider my options.

I'll change topic briefly. Tomorrow sees the final of Celebrity Big Brother and I've gone 'All In' on Coolio. For some reason I've got a feeling Verne won't win, so it's seems a straight shoot-out between Terry and the American rapper.

A Premium Pressie

2009-01-19T18:36:00.011Z

Since Last Update P/L: £333.97

Monthly P/L: £831.48

It had to happen sooner or later. Last Wednesday saw me incur my first Betfair Premium charge and even though I thought I'd prepared myself, it still left a sour taste in the mouth. I know it's only £15 but when there are no tools/warnings to help predict what this charge will be then it's very difficult to budget for. Being a successful trader/punter is all about control. From stake sizes to discipline it's all part of the big picture, so not having a clue how much Betfair will take at the end of the week tends to go against the grain of things. With this week providing a decent profit, I've got a funny feeling that the size of my gifts are about to start getting bigger.

Okay, rant over.

Here are my latest results:

American Football : £119.79

Cricket : £21.46

Greyhound Racing : £10.22

Horse Racing : £2.88

Rugby Union : £195.55

Premium Charge : £15.93

The NFL playoffs have so far provided a mix bag. I've been able to make surprisingly good amounts on trading individual matches but a lot of my picks for the big prize have fallen by the wayside. My top seeds Pittsburgh will now have to deliver if I'm to finish the Superbowl Winner market in profit.

What about the rest? The 2nd ODI International between Australia and South Africa was fun to trade and helped me get back into the swing of things but once more I made too many wrong decisions. That's the beauty of cricket though - you get so many opportunities to put things right.

The Heineken Cup has been great entertainment (how good were Cardiff?) and my mouth is now watering at the prospect of the Six Nations. From a Welsh perspective I'm confident of another good show but I wouldn't be backing them at 15/8 for the Championship. Scotland will be a tough opener and a lot rides on that first result.

Best not to ask about the Horse and Greyhound Racing ;-)

Caught Out

2009-01-13T19:55:00.014Z

Since Last Update P/L: £306.13
Monthly P/L: £497.51

We've all played Monopoly and we've all been saved by the 'Get Out Of Jail Free' card. Up until Sunday morning I'd forgotten how sweet that feeling was.

Yet again, I'm kicking myself as I should know better. Twenty 20 Cricket is a high octane event and whilst I'd call it my specialised subject, I'm prone to forgetting that it takes time to adjust to the speed of the game - especially after not trading it for a while. So it shouldn't really surprise me that this is exactly what happened when I settled down to watch the Aussies take on the South Africans over the weekend. After being extremely hasty to get involved I was licking my wounds at the turn of innings and staring at a near maximum loss. It was time to steady the ship and fortunately after playing things tight I was able to recoup most of the deficit. Not an ideal way to start the season! However, I do find it comforting to know that even when I get multiple decisions wrong, I'm still able to make just a small loss. The ability to do this when things aren't going my way ends up saving me a hell of a lot of money over the course of a year and it keeps on reminding me that if I can keep to big wins, small wins and small losses I'll end up being a pretty successful trader.

Which leads me onto my next subject - Million Dollar Traders. The idea for the TV Programme that was screened on BBC 2 last night is similar to that described in the book, 'The Way Of The Turtle'. Give ordinary people some money, teach them to trade and watch them succeed. At least that's the idea, but any of you who caught the first show last night will vouch that it didn't look that simple! What made me laugh was how similar the experiences of the novices on the show were to when I started on Betfair. I'm sure many of you recognised the weaknesses; lack of discipline, too much emotion, hesitancy, bad timing, over analysis, reluctance to trade, laziness etc. The list goes on. All good entertainment and it'll be interesting to see how the volunteers fare in the coming weeks. One not to miss, and if I'm truthful I'm a little envious that I missed out on giving this show a go :-)

One last question. I've been a big fan of the Bet Angel team since becoming a customer of theirs over two years ago, and have always been inspired when I watch any of Peter Webb's trading videos. So after reading various new blogs where the authors mention that they've attending Peter's trading course, I now believe the time has come to make a decision on whether I'm serious about trading Horse Racing. Progress on my own systems has been slow so perhaps it's time to gather some insight? This is where I need your advice. If you've attended Peter's course previously then please leave me a comment and let me know if you think it will be suitable to my style. All the testimonials on the site look good (as you'd expect) but for £400 I'd like some independent advice before moving ahead.

Any help would be appreciated ;-)

Here's my full list of latest results:

American Football : £265.19

Cricket : £33.18

Horse Racing : £18.60

Rugby Union : £55.00

Green House

2009-01-10T14:42:00.010Z

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The figures might not be the biggest but after making a series of small trades I've managed to make a green book on the Celebrity Big Brother market. Verne Troyer continues to lead the way and even though he's a justified hot favourite there's the risk that the Producers could still throw another contestant into the mix to liven things up. If they do it's likely to be one of them characters that you'll either love or loathe so be careful about jumping on the 'Mini-Me' train to early. One surprise is the price available on Coolio. Okay, he's controversial and a tad annoying but you can't deny that he's entertaining. With that kind of personality I wouldn't be surprised to see his price shorten quickly if/when he comes up with something unpredictable.
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Elsewhere, the 21st January sees a planned 'Betfair' protest organised by Dariusz from the blog 'Betdaq Revolution'. It's a chance for those of you affected by the Betfair Premium Charge to make your feelings known. Even though I'm all for increased competition in the Betting Exchange market I won't be taking part this time. This is my quiet time of the year and even if I stopped using Betfair for 2 weeks they'd hardly notice.
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