Calypso Collapso

Today went well and I was able to recoup another 41% of my losses to push me back nearer to my break even target.  In total that's now 56% in 2 days and it's more than I could have hoped for when I wrote my 'under pressure' post.  I can imagine you thinking that I've either been chasing or taking too many risks to get this amount back so quickly but in all honesty I've been doing the opposite.

Instead of jumping at every possible tick I've been really thinking through my plays carefully by constructing in my head the whole event before it's happened.  Impossible eh?  Of course, but it's not impossible to construct what's 'likely' to happen and that in many cases is a great starting point.  This is something I've practised for a while but with a nasty monthly loss staring me in the face it's forced me to pay a bit more attention to detail.

As for the match itself it was a breath of fresh air - the Aussies struggled to post 204 on a difficult pitch and in reply the West Indies imploded and were only able to muster 140.  The market switched favouritism several times and there was none of this bat 1st and win business.  With another 4 ODI's left in this series things could be looking up!

Off to Cardiff tomorrow to support the men in red in their bid for a 3rd Grand Slam in 8 seasons.  It promises to be messy so day 3 of my recovery will be on Sunday.  Here's the graph:

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The Long Road

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Day 1 of my recovery was a long but productive one which consisted of the One Day International between Pakistan and Sri Lanka and an evening of Premier League darts.  All in all it was 11 hours of being extremely cautious and picking up the 'quick wins' when they were on offer but the positive result was that I recouped over 15% of my target.  A good start but still a long way to go before I get back to level for the month.
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Here's my graph (click to enlarge):

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The plan today is to tackle the 1st One Day International between the West Indies and Australia.  I've come to love watching cricket but the ODI format is my least favourite as I spend the majority of the time inactive.  That's always frustrating as it's easy to get involved when there's no need to - a big test of discipline.

As for tomorrow that could well be a write-off as Wales take on France in an attempt to clinch their 3rd Grand Slam in 8 years and as you can imagine, the temptation to join a 12th of the country's population on the streets of Cardiff may prove too much! 

Lastly, I had some interesting comments to my previous post.  Here's some snippets:

"it sounds like you are about to start chasing your losses and are attempting to justify that." 

"Not the most 'professional' thing to do, looking at your pnl in short periods, just as bad as setting a daily limit to be fair."

"Setting positive targets for individual markets now :) No doubt if you miss a target you can always up the stakes for the next one."

"who cares about following a winning previous strategy , just dive in with some speculative lays/backs and cross your fingers." 

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Sounds like I didn't get my points across very well when I described my action plan.  The over-riding message was meant to be, "I need to manage my risk better."

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Under Pressure

Yikes!  I've mentioned recently that I haven't had a losing month for 5 and a half years but after a few things going against me recently, I'm in danger of losing this record.  It's a bit of a long story but the shortened version is that I've dabbled with the stock markets along the way for small amounts and always included any profits or losses in my monthly figures.  Until recently the amounts involved have been insignificant (less than 1% of my bank) but unluckily for me a few of my shares have taken a big hit this month.  Add to this a couple of decent size losses on the cricket and a couple of premium charges to boot and I'm now staring at the biggest monthly deficit I've ever faced.  To get back to level for the month will be a big task.

I've been in a similar position once before - December 2009.  Back then I suffered a maximum cricket loss and started to struggle trading the PDC World Darts Championships.  With it also being a quiet month I was extremely fortunate to scrape back into profit to the grand sum of £6.38.  A lucky escape, but this time the gap is wider and the pressure is on - yes, I have money put by to pay the bills but I can't underestimate how much maintaining that winning record means to me.  Without it l'll feel like Superman in the presence of Kryptonite.

Okay, so what can I do to put things right and ensure panic doesn't set in?

These are the normal steps I take when I'm up against it, so I need to remember to follow them:

1. Accept the loss - The first step is for me to accept the position I'm in.  The quicker I do this the easier it'll be for me to look forward.  Clinging on to losses will only make things worse as scared money rarely wins.

2. Break the deficit into bits - By knowing how many events I've left to trade before the end of March I can estimate what I need to make from each to get back what I've lost.  Of course, if an opportunity presents itself that's too good to miss then I'm not going to pull out because I've hit my 'target, but by instilling a pre-event expectation it'll help me with my lack of patience and control.  Discipline will be more vital than ever,

3. Bank some quick wins - Confidence is such a huge factor so getting a few wins under my belt can help a lot.  It doesn't matter if they're not that big, they just need to get me back on track.  I don't want to be entering the last week of the month too far out of reach of breaking even.

4. Positive thinking - It's a powerful tool.  The truth is I have a good history of making this game pay so I need to stick to what I know and banish any signs of negativity.

4. Blog my results - A bit of a curve-ball this but I've noticed my thinking becoming a little hazy over the last few days.  To help give myself some focus I'll blog my recovery progress between now and the end of March.  I won't be giving exact figures but I will publish a nice graph!  Here's my target graph at the moment: 

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So there you have it, and if that doesn't get you onto my wavelength then there's only one thing left for it... 

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Richard Preen

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For those of you who have read and enjoyed the 'Odds-N-Sods' blog on my blogroll, you'll be saddened to hear that it's author Richard Preen has died whilst undergoing a lung transplant to transform his life.

I'd never met him but from exchanged comments on Twitter he seemed a very decent guy.  Always horrible to hear news like this and once gain it's a reminder that we're not here for long.  Richard was only 33.

Here's a link to the tributes paid to him in the Gloucestershire Echo.

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