Overview

Okay, it may not be that exciting but since I committed to posting updates on my progress when I was struggling, here's what I've been up to for the last couple of days...

Sunbathing...errr...apart from that?  Hmmm, okay...let's start with the 1st T20 between the Windies and Australia on Tuesday which ended with a positive result. The home team just didn't look comfortable setting a target and the standout statistic for me was the knock from youngster Nkrumah Bonner - just 24 runs from 33 balls.  He could well turn out to be a decent player in this format but on this occasion he looked a little out of his depth and chewed up too many deliveries. With the St Lucia pitch playing well recently the innings total of 150 was always likely to be a few short against a quality batting lineup, and a set of inexperienced bowlers wasn't going to help.  The key then was to get a good price on an Australian win and the opportunity presented itself when David Warner lost his wicket in the 1st over of the reply.  The market over-reacted and the Aussies went on to win comfortably.

Wednesday saw a chunky wedge taken by Betfair's Premium Charge (15% of my previous break even target) but I was able to claw a bit of this back on the 1st Test between England and Sri Lanka in Galle.  I only dipped my toes in the water over the 4 days but a win is a win especially when approaching the end of the month.

Finally, tonight was a slow and steady one with 4 out of 4 wins on the Darts.  Nothing spectacular, just small grounded out results but the monthly picture is looking much rosier now than it did a couple of weeks ago:

With the end of the month only 2 days away it's important that I don't make any big mistakes so the plan is to tread carefully in the 2 T20 Internationals tomorrow.  Some interesting match-ups there (SA v India and WI v Aus) which have ignited my interest so I may have to sit on my hands at some point especially as I don't want to go into the IPL on the back of some losses.

Talking of which....

After doing my diary for April today I realised there are 41 scheduled games during the month!  It really is a mammoth of a competition with it running for the best part of 8 weeks.  For all you tennis traders, could you imagine how you'd feel if Wimbledon lasted that long?  A huge test of stamina with every 4 and 6 looking the same after about the 4th day!  To reassure myself that it is possible to just rack up a string of steady IPL wins, I dug out my results from the 2011 edition to analyse how my results had fluctuated.  Here's a progressive graph showing my cumulative p&l throughout the tournament - let's hope I can repeat the feat this year!:

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Fully Charged

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Buoyed by breaking even I had a new lease of life over the weekend as I started to realise that there were still enough events left this month for me to make some money.  After taking a second to remind myself that this was the time I needed to be careful I got stuck into a couple of Aviva Premiership rugby matches.

First up was Harlequins v Bath at a sun drenched Stoop.  Great conditions for the fans as they downed their beers but maybe not that great for the players, as after an energetic start you could see it was going to be a long day.  The game itself didn't really do the occasion justice but after opposing the home team (who were strong pre-match favourites) during the first half I was able to book a better than expected win as Bath made a game of it. 

Northampton v Wasps followed but that turned out to be a bit one sided as Wasps just weren't up to the task. On a personal level it's sad to see a once dominant side going to the dogs.  Financial troubles at the club this season have really taken their toll as well as an astounding number of player injuries - 2 things which are making life very difficult for Dai Young.  Anyway, I threw in towel after 30 mins and accepted a very small gain.

With an enjoyable Saturday out of the way, the plan for Sunday was to concentrate on the 5th and final ODI between the Windies and Australia but after accidently turning on the Malaysian Grand Prix I became engrossed.  I don't know the finite details, but after watching for 10 minutes one thing was clear - these teams have become alot more competitive of the last couple of years!  Long time readers will know that I've traded the sport before, but after returning very average results I decided to concentrate my efforts elsewhere, but on hearing the team order given to Sergio Perez that he needed to "be careful" and that they "need this position" I couldn't help but lay him when he was threatening for the lead towards the end.  It was a position I took with limited downside and sure enough is price flew out from 1.60 to 11's within seconds a few corners later as he spun the backend of the car.  He would have to settle for 2nd place and I would settle for a pleasing result.  Maybe I should check my lottery ticket?  I did - I'd won £10!

By now I was bouncing and with the sun still shining not even the realisation that the ODI would start an hour later due to the clocks going forward could dampen my mood.  Why can't things be like this all of the time?

Now I'm sure there's a few of you getting a bit sick of all this positivity - time for me to come back to earth? Sorry to disappoint  - here's my p&l graph for the cricket (click to enlarge):

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Pride can come before a fall (as I've experienced many times) but I couldn't hold myself back from being a bit more aggressive in this match and luckily it paid off.  If anything, I guess the negative was that I wasn't able to kick on after such a strong start but it turned out to be one of those 'what could've been' games instead.

With a few T20's still to go before the end of March I'm now up to 148% of my previous break even target.

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Back To The Future

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Hurrah! I made it back into profit for the month but it wasn't an easy ride. After trading yesterday's ODI the final result was a 15% gain towards my target (I am now 5% over it) but as my p&l graph for the match testifies, I had to turn things around after a sticky start (click to enlarge):

My thoughts prior to the match were that I wanted to be with the bowling team. There was a chance of rain and previous ground statistics pointed towards only a marginally better playing surface than in St Vincent, so I was more than happy to side with Australia when they won the toss and opted to bowl.

In turned out to be an incorrect assumption and as you can see, things didn't go quit to plan as the Windies launched an impressive opening salvo by bashing 56/0 off the first 10 overs.  It's at this point I started to realise that conditions were not what I was expecting.

Over the remainder of the innings I continued to nibble at the Australian price at different intervals but to no avail. The Windies were by now on for a good score and it was time to switch - the Aussies were in trouble.  Fortunately for me I did so just in time. Pollard and Sammy exploded with some mighty power hitting in the last 10 overs and a score of 294 was posted.  In my opinion it was too much for an Australian batting lineup containing a few inexperienced players at this level. The question now was all about getting a good price for a Windies win. To make sure I didn't miss out on an early batting collapse I took a half stake position  at odds of 1.66.

It was the right move as the Windies took David Warner's wicket in the 2nd over, but I should have taken this opportunity to reduce my position and improve my average. In the belief that things would only get worse for the batting side I didn't and it came back to haunt me as they rallied and I was once again into negative territory. Doh! In my bid to get over the line I'd been greedy again and gone against what I know I should have done.

Undettered I once again waited for another entry point - still believing the Windies had enough.  The Aussies were hitting boundaries, the market was jumping and they'd become favourites. Surely an overreaction chasing such a high score despite the conditions?  Yes, it was, and it was my entry at this point that sealed my win.  Multiple wickets fell in the coming overs and by the time the visitors were 112/5 I'd decided to call it a day.

This is why I love betting on cricket.  I can be wrong so many times, but as long as I manage my risk it's often relatively straightforward to get into a positive position at some point throughout a match.  I hear alot about people wanting winning strategies but the truth is a lot more simple - stay clear from greed and concentrate on making the right decisions.

My mission has now changed - I need to hold onto this profit until the end of the month!  With 5 cricket matches, a night of darts and a couple of games of rugby to go, there's plenty of time to blow it.

 

Relax - Don't Do It

After not participating in the markets on Wednesday, it was back to normal yesterday with the the Asia Cup Final between Pakistan and Bangladesh plus a night of Premier League Darts.

I've a list of things which make me feel uncomfortable in cricket markets and the words Pakistan, Bangladesh and the scheduling of a tournament just before the IPL kicks off are all on there.  It's nothing personal - Pakistan have some cracking players and likewise Bangladesh seem to have come on leaps and bounds but despite this I can't help feeling a lack of trust when they're involved.  Was yesterday any different?  No, but I adjusted and kept my stakes relatively small. I also went against the crowd quite a bit and opposed low odds at different times which appears to be the way forward in these types of matches.  I wasn't laying for the sake of it, but instead tried to choose my moments for when the market was jumping on the 'winner' and pushing the price too far. My belief was that there would be many more ups and downs along the way and so it proved as Pakistan held on to win by a slender 2 run margin, and I bagged another 12% towards my break even target.

A few hours break was squeezed in during the afternoon before it was time to tune into the darts being screened live from Dublin. The first thing to hit me was the crowd - 9,000 crazy fans getting ready to cheer on a bunch of dart players!  Astonishing and something special.  It also helped motivate the players and there were some great performances on display but unfortunately mine wasn't one of them.  Despite winning on 3 out of 4 matches, the one loser cancelled out most of the wins to leave me with just a further 1% gain.

It's funny, but I can feel my mindset changing now that I'm up to 90%. I'm looking to get over the line and starting to lose sight of the goal. I'd have bitten your hand off to be in this position just a few days ago. This is the dangerous time then when complacency can set in and a greedy moment can see me endure a big loss.

Time to concentrate even harder.

Friday sees me tackle the 4th ODI between the West Indies and Australia.

Here's my break even graph :

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