Increase Betfair Profits - Do A Good Turn

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I feel bad - I've been back from holiday for 3 weeks and I have posted on my blog once! A poor effort but if the truth is told, all of the rain we've had over the last couple of weeks has dampened my mood. It's one of the major drawbacks of being a cricket gambler/trader - you just can't control the weather and this can have a big effect on your monthly p&l.  Fortunately, things have started to pick up over the last few days so I thought it was about time I jotted down some thoughts.
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Here goes...

During the IPL I took to tweeting and conversing with other traders on a more regular basis and I found it very interesting to observe how each person would interpret information in a different way. It also became clear very quickly that a lot of us have different approaches to how we manage our positions during a game. This doesn't sound very enlightening, but when someone mentioned that after they took an initial position they normally stuck with it, it made me realise that some may not not appreciate the value of 'turns'.

Turns? What the hell are they? In short a 'turn' is when you've successfully been matched on both the 'back'  and 'lay' sides of a selection.  The beauty of Betfair is that you're able to do this many times during an event for no additional cost, so by 'turning' my money over and over and taking advantage of the market fluctuations it's possible to generate bigger profits whilst keeping the risks low.

Time for an example. The Betfair graph below shows the in-play price of Somerset in their recent match against Northants (click to enlarge).

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You can see that they started the match at around 1.60 favourites, so had I looked to back them at this point then the most I could have won had I held my position throughout would have been 60 ticks (1.60 to 1.00).  That's a fair return, but I would have had to stuck to my guns throughout the match, Somerset would have needed to win the game and I'd have had to go through the unnecessary stress and self doubts along the way. Alternatively, by entering the market many times and conducting many 'turns' the amount of ticks I could have won would have significantly increased. A rough estimate following each peak and trough on the graph would give an indication that at least 330 ticks were possible if it was traded perfectly. That's obviously very unlikely, but even 20% of that would have returned 66 ticks which would have been more than the back and hold approach.
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Still with me? Good. To clarify, I'm not saying "become a scalper" - I'm saying be flexible and have an open mind when it comes to the market.  Turns can last for seconds or hours, but the length of time you have an position open doesn't matter, it's being aware that being active in the market can be a good thing and can offer up more opportunities.
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IPL - The End

After what seems like an eternity, today's IPL game between Chennai and Delhi signalled the end of a challenging 2 months and the beginning of my holiday. It's been a long tournament and tough at times but has it all been worth it?

To make things straightforward, I'll use some graphs :-)  First up, my completed IPL comparison (click to enlarge images):

You'll notice I didn't hit my target but I'm delighted to even get close to it after drifting off the pace in the mid-stages.Some serious lapses of concentration in the final games (which I'm blaming on thinking the job was already done) caused the blip but a nice win in the last match helped me finish on a high.

That's the overall picture but what about my key stats - what went right for me to improve so much in 12 months? How about my win %?

Not sure how I did it but from the 73 matches I played, I managed to win 65 and only lost on 8. That means my win % rose from 78.87% to 89.04%. That's quite a jump and the only answer I can give is that I knew when 'not' to get involved this year. After doing my homework before the tournament, I'd highlighted scenarios when I'd stay out of the market and fortunately it seems to have paid off. This shows that by sometimes being inactive, you can really have a positive effect on your results.

How did my average win (dark purple) and average loss (light purple) compare this year?

Well, my average win increased by 46.97% whilst my average loss went up by 43.34%.  At this point, some  of you maybe thinking how I could improve my results if I lost 'more' when I lost?  Simply put, with my win % rising and my average wins also going up I could afford bigger losses when I did lose.  In this case, the net result is that the average value that each event was worth to me went through the roof:

In total, each match was worth 97.49% more to me than 2011. The devil is in the detail and I honestly believe that if I hadn't changed my approach for this years competition then my results would have continued to decline. The moral of the story?  If somethings not working, make sure you highlight what it is and don't be afraid to change things.

You'll remember from this post in March that the IPL was proving to be a thorn in my side, I'm hoping now that I've turned things around.

Right, time for a break....pass me that sangria!

Adios for now amigos!

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IPL - Week 6

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With just 9 games of the IPL left before I set off on our family holiday, I'm starting to wish the competition wouldn't end.  For me, the last week has been nearly perfect and has produced results far beyond my expectations, with the winning streak continuing (now up to 26 wins on the trot) and a return per game that's averaging more than my pre-tournament target.  My graph has now taken off and unbelievably considering where I was a few weeks back, I'm getting close to the white line! (click to enlarge)

In the past, I'd be expecting a big slap in the chops about now - the type of one that sobers me up and brings me back to earth - but this time it feels different. Why? I can think of two reasons.

Firstly, now that I've made enough for me to class the last 2 months as a success, I've started to relax more. I specifically targeted the IPL as a focus for my year and with such lot riding on it, it's no surprise that my form dipped midway into the 2nd week. Of course it's not over yet, and yes I can lose money from here (touch wood), but unless something catastrophic happens I should be able to manage my risk so that any losses I incur from now on don't do too much damage.

The second reason is I believe my foundations are now stronger than ever before.  The extra time I've had to study and research events has allowed me even more capability to squeeze a few extra ticks out of the market, and believe me, over time these add up. Could I have achieved this had I not done this full-time?  I doubt it. The workload combined with sharing my time elsewhere would have left me deflated, distracted and happy to settle. Urrggghh...and I hate settling.

Even though it may sound like it, this is not meant to be a tap on the back session. I'm still very aware that the road ahead is a very long one to get to where I want to go, but I think it does show that hard work pays off. This game is not an easy one and to stay ahead over the long term is an ongoing battle.  Without doing the donkey work I'm 100% sure I wouldn't have got this far.

So what about the cricket?  Well at times it's been like watching an episode of Eastenders, but overall there's been more big hits and karbonn kamaal catches than you can shake a stick at. This weeks highlight?

No competition for me - just take a look at this....

CLICK FOR OFFICIAL VIDEO

And one last thing before I go.....a question that's been floating around in my head - what T20 ground do YOU think is the best in the world for batsmen?  Let me know and I'll include the consensus opinion in my next blog:

VOTE HERE

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IPL - Week 5

5 weeks down and only 2 to go! It seems like I've been harping on about the IPL for ages and I apologise if you're getting sick of it, but I promised to keep posting updates throughout the competition and I'm a man of my word ;-)

So, what's the latest? Each day is a bit like Groundhog Day at the moment ; get up, get Caden ready for school, breakfast, shower, IPL - you get the picture. It's a little boring at times and it does get a bit repetitive but the big positive is that I've had a storming start to May and I'm currently on a run of 15 straight wins with each match returning what I was aiming for at the beginning of the tournament. More importantly, I feel very settled in what I'm doing and have a clear picture of where I'm heading (click graph to enlarge).

You can see from that picture how things have started to pick up, but with 20 matches to go before I jet off on the family holiday there's still time for many ups and downs. Everything comes at a cost though, and you might remember that I mentioned back in January that I'd be tracking my working hours throughout the year. Well, nothing comes for free so it's no surprise that I've had to put in extra effort to get these results (click pic to enlarge).

 
April saw me averaging 55 hours a week, whilst May is banging on 50, but so far the return has been worth it so I'm not complaining. I've known for a long time that these months tend to be my busiest of the year, so although it's tricky to manage a young family at the same time, there's also some light at the end of the tunnel.

To be fair, the cricket itself has been mostly entertaining too and I'm sure I'll be having withdrawal symptoms in a few months if this gloomy weather continues throughout the British summer. The highlight for me this week was undoubtedly a fantastic bit of fielding from Australian Steven Smith.  Was it a bird, was it a plane?  Take a look for yourself...

CLICK HERE FOR OFFICIAL YOUTUBE VIDEO

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