Moving Target

Since Last Update P/L: £253.03

Monthly P/L: £1,008.37

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Apologies for the lack of updates this week but it’s been a busy few days. Not so much for my trading activity but more to do with some odd jobs that needed taking care of.

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However, the I’m glad to report that January 2009 has developed into my most successful beginning to the year since I started this trading lark. In 2007 my winnings totalled £137.22 and in 2008 they only went up to £304.01, so to post a figure over £1,000 this year signifies that I’m continuing to move in the right direction. Okay, it didn’t all go to plan (Ulrika did win Celebrity Big Brother) but overall I’m happy with the return and with the rest of year promising plenty of cricketing action things are looking good.

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Looking back though, it’s funny how my thought process has changed over the last two years. Back then my goals were to pay the monthly telephone/electricity bill etc. and now I’m dreaming of new cars and fancy holidays! I guess there’s a lesson in there – targets should always be within reach but far enough away to keep you driven.

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Here’s my final results for January:

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Rugby Union : £138.13
Cricket : £132.81
Special Bets : £5.14
Poker : £1.48
Premium Charge : £24.53
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So what does February hold? Well, I’m generally expecting it to be another quiet month with the occasional highlight brightening up the wintry gloom. Most notably the Six Nations commences and my views on Wales defending the trophy haven’t changed. A lot will depend on their first game against Scotland – a win and momentum will rocket, defeat and 4th/5th position beckons. With their odds at around 3.25 to win the Championship I wouldn’t be tempted just yet.

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In keeping with the Rugby theme it shouldn’t be forgotten that the Super League starts on Friday. Leeds face new boys Celtic Crusaders in the first televised game and although I’d love the Bridgend based team to do well I can’t see it happening. If anyone disagrees, you can get 140 on Betfair for them to go on and win the Grand Final.

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Then there’s the Superbowl. Arizona have surprised everybody and although I’m already on Pittsburgh I wouldn’t put it past the Cardinals on taking the prize. I have an ‘icky’ feeling in my stomach that the underdogs may just come through so there’s a good chance I’ll hedge my bets at some point. Either way you can’t fault the event as a spectacle, and I’ll be staying up late to watch it.

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Waiting For A Bus

Since Last Post P/L: £32.47

Monthly P/L: £241.55

Not even a huge 7 days of sporting upsets can make me a decent profit! It really has been the week of the underdog so where do I start? Castleford, Cardiff City, Barnsley, Scotland and even Wales securing the Triple Crown at Croke Park! Can you imagine getting all those on a 50p accumulator!?!

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All these examples and yet my profit & loss has been notable for it's lack of big green numbers and it's very difficult to look on the positive side of things. Granted, a win is a win but it seems that every profitable situation I've placed myself in has turned sour.

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I think I need to slow myself down, take the small wins when they present themselves and not get greedy. A situation I've been in many times before but it seems I'm still learning the same lessons. In fact, the more I think about it the more I realise that there's probably only a handful of trading lessons in total, only they rotate just as the last one gets forgotten.

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Here's my results since my last post:

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Darts

Mardle v Wade : £21.54

Lewis v Part : £24.71

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Rugby League

Castleford v Leeds : £1.28

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Rugby Union

Scotland v England : £7.04

France v Italy : £7.11

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Golf

PODS Championship : £28.09

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I'm sure this lack of progress won't continue for long, and as the title of this post suggests a flurry of nice gains will appear - I just wish they'd hurry up.

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Super League Starts

Daily P/L: £2.42
Monthly P/L: £47.97

Tonight saw the start of the Engage Super League with Wigan and Warrington squaring off. I haven't as much knowledge about Rugby League as I have with Rugby Union so I decided to keep my stakes very low and observe for most of the game.

It became apparent that whilst it's exciting to watch, Rugby League is more predictable than a lot of sports- I knew this already but wanted to make sure I wasn't missing a trick. You'd think this would be good for a trader but I find it the opposite. To me, my speciallity is studying a sport so I can find opportunities that others will mostly miss - with Rugby League every man and his dog seems to know what's likely to happen and it becomes a competition of 'fastest finger first'. I hate this, as the skill of trading then gets replaced by who has the fastest internet connection. Whilst this is very important, to me it should only be part of the picture.

Maybe my early judgement is wrong but I'm not sure this sport will provide me with much success this summer.