Next LIVE Event

Pure greed ensured that I had my most miserable weekend for sometime. Not only did Wales go down to England in the rugby (which is bad enough on it's own) but for some reason I managed to squander a decent profit in the One Day International between Australia and the West Indies AND go all-in on a whim that Scotland would give the French a run for their money at Murrayfield. On both occasions I was left with the dreaded phrase,"how did I let that happen?" running through my head.
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So after my best ever January, I'm now playing catchup in a month that occupies my quiet time of the year. Not ideal, but how can I let this spoil my plans for my next LIVE event? The show must go on!
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With this in mind I hope you can join me on Thursday evening for the kick-off of the 2010 Premier League darts season. I'm not going to kid you that it will be a trading masterclass - it's won't be - but I do enjoy this format and the high paced action always throws up decent money making opportunities.
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Coverage will start on my blog from 7pm.
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As a side note - after the New Orleans Saints stunning victory in the Superbowl, maybe I should re-think my playoff ranking system? :-)
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Artificial Intelligence

Since Last Update P/L: £2.10
Monthly P/L: £1,007.43

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It's funny what you can find by trawling through the recesses of unused folders on your hard drive. Yesterday I stumbled upon one of those forgotten files - a Classic IQ Test that I'd taken when visiting the old Tickle site a couple of years ago.

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I wouldn't have described myself as a 'Visual Mathematician' previously, but after re-reading my results a lot of things seem to make sense:

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"You have a strong ability to process visual-spatial and mathematical information. These skills combined with your strengths in logic are what make you a Visual Mathematician.

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You're able to understand patterns visually and in numbers. That means your mind can create a mental picture for any problem. In addition to that skill, you possess an intelligence that allows you to apply maths to that picture, too. That helps you manipulate multiple parts of the picture (or problem) to come up with a solution.

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You have many skills that are critical to success and problem-solving. Your talents help you understand the "big picture," which is partly why people may turn to you for direction -- especially in the workplace. You flourish in environments where tasks are clearly defined, and you excel at improving processes and making things more efficient. Like Einstein, your ability to detect patterns and your skills in maths and logic, make it natural for you to come up with ideas and theories that simplify processes for everyone."

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All job offers and public appearances considered - LOL! Seriously though, is it my ability to recognise patterns that make me well suited to trading? It seems a reasonable explanation, and as I'm also a Project Manager I'm glad to see that improving processes and making things more efficient should be one of my strengths.

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Now, back to the usual stuff...

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Trading has been slow over the last week and as I haven't been feeling too clever I decided to close the book on February to secure a profit of over a thousand pounds for the month. Achieving little milestones like that (especially in my off season) are important to me and allow me a pat on the back before concentrating on new challenges ahead. As it won't be long before I'm over-whelmed with a number of events to trade, this small break has been more than welcome.

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Mr. Plod (my adopting name for the 'PC' - get it?) has continued to rear his ugly head so the losses on soccer and horse racing mentioned below are mainly my attempts at trying to duck the deductions. Here's my final results for February:

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Darts : £66.10

Horse Racing : £4.06

Rugby Union : £14.48

Soccer : £18.87

Premium Charge : £59.75

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Elsewhere, rumours are rife on the forums regarding Betfair's latest intentions. Allegedly, they are due to release a new product called 'Mini Games' very soon. Not content with enticing people via the casino and arcade, they are now internallly testing a product which will add fruit machines to your betting slip! So where you see Place Bet, My Bets, Rules & Help, you will also now see 'Mini Games' - just in case you were so addicted to losing money that you can't get a fix for another three minutes to the next race! I'll let you decide the ethics behind this one but it seems so bizarre how a company can change it's corporate strategy so quickly and purposefully turn full circle on it's loyal customers. Of course, this could all be 'hear say' but I wouldn't bet against it. If it does happen, then in my opinion Betfair must be struggling to fund their worldwide expansion.

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Tugging Heart Strings

Since Last Update P/L: £245.79

Monthly P/L: £1,009.53

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I've never been able to figure out why some people always bet on their favourite team. After all, should your team lose you not only have to get over the reality that they're perhaps not as good as you thought, but your pockets are also a bit emptier than when the game started. A double whammy. Correction, a triple whammy, as if you follow a high profile team such as Man Utd, Chelsea etc. then the chances are your bet didn't didn't even offer value as the odds on offer were reduced by other casual 'blind' fanatics.

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So what's the answer? Well, "don't bet" would be an acceptable one, but if the temptation is too great then how about backing the other team? This does sound a bit hard to swallow but it's exactly what I did on Saturday when Wales packed down to face England in the Six Nations. I had sweaty palms that England would put in a strong performance and thought that Wales' match odds price of 1.27 was way too short. A quick scan of the other markets then allowed me to notice that England were available at even money with a 10.5 point head start. My decision was made - I'd oppose Wales for the match and back England to cover the handicap. If Wales won by over 10.5 points then I'd be out of pocket to the sum of £65 (a loss that would be worth it!) but if England won or lost by less of a margin then I'd at least break even. A no lose situation in my eyes! By full time, the winning margin of 8pts fell exactly where I wanted :-)

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Here's my latest results:

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Cricket : £134.53

Darts : £264.02

Rugby Union : £16.72

Soccer : £95.87

Premium Charge : £73.61

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Losing It

Since Last Post P/L: £630.97

Monthly P/L: £630.97

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Caden has suffered from a bout of sickness and diarrhoea this week so with looking after him, fighting the snow and coping with the launch of a new product in work it's surprising I've been able to make any profit at all!

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Following a nice win on the 1st ODI International between Australia and New Zealand I decided that I needed to investigate ways of lessening the Premium Charge burden. My initial thoughts were to put together a horse laying system that over a period of time returned a break even p&l with an even percentage of winners of losers. My first foray into this strategy ended in a small loss of £28.43 (which is more than I would have paid in terms of PC) but it's not an approach that can be judged on one day so I won't fret just yet. It is a sad state of affairs though when you have to consider how to lose in order to keep hold of profit.

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With 'losing' firmly in my mindset I then thought to myself, "Hey, what the heck, why not take another look at Tennis?" and proceeded to spend a good few hours going through some simulated scenarios. Although the Movistar Open currently being held in Chile isn't Wimbledon, it served it's purpose and provided some enlightening moments. Although I'm still paying for my education I'm beginning to see some light at the end of the tunnel.

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Here's a round-up of my results for February:

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American Football : £12.60

Cricket : £434.79

Darts : £94.10

Horse Racing : £28.43

Rugby Union : £249.35

Tennis : £53.82

Premium Charge : £77.62

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From Another Planet

Since Last Post P/L: £146.04
Monthly P/L: £187.02

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Has anyone checked to see if Phil Taylor has the markings, 'Made In Taiwan' anywhere on his body? After demolishing Barney in a very one sided contest, the man from Stoke made it 14 World Titles and ended a glorious 12 months in style. He really is a freak and it baffles me how he can be so far ahead of the others. Okay, he practices - alot - but I'm sure most of the players do these days with the amount of prize money on offer, so what makes Taylor score 20 points more than the rest every 3 darts?

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It has to be the psychological advantage he holds and the way he uses it for maximum effect. The pre-final interview revealed a significant amount when he admitted that at the first sign of weakness he would look to bully his opponent. Do all the top stars think this way? I'm sure they do, and when they have the game to back it up they become formidable opponents. If ever there was a man who deserved to win 'Sports Personality of the Year' then you'd need not look further than 'The Power'. Sadly, it seems that prize is one that will elude him.

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Elsewhere, things have trickled along nicely. The NFL Playoffs results have so far edged in my favour and after adding LaToya Jackson to my Celebrity Big Brother portfolio I'm feeling a little more comfortable. An interesting few weeks lie ahead.

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Darts

Van Barneveld v Wade : £70.27

Taylor v King : £0.02

Taylor v Van Barneveld : £19.64

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Rugby Union

Leicester v Bath : £27.18

Wasps v Harlequins : £29.12

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American Football

Baltimore v Miami : £4.17

Superbowl Winner : £4.36

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First Impressions

Since Last Post P/L: £40.98

Monthly P/L: £40.98
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Celebrity Big Brother got underway last night and even though it may seem a little sad, the thought of all these prima-donnas arguing over the milk gets me excited. The line-up is a good mix of personalities but one in particular looks to have stolen the show already.

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Verne Troyer is best known for the role he played as Mini-Me in the Austin Powers series of films, and even though he only measures 2 feet 8 inches it seems he's been keen to explore other opportunities since the last movie 'Goldmember' was released in 2002. Gus from the Tellybetting blog has already pointed out that Verne has some form when it comes to reality shows and as I'm a big believer in first impressions I've decided to make a play after just the first show. I'm opposing the female contestants as voting usually goes the way of the males when the decision on who gets evicted gets put to the public. Here's my book as it currently stands:

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Tonight also sees the start of the NFL playoffs and as usual I've tried to predict the eventual winner of the Superbowl. Last year I did quite poorly so I'm hoping to rectify things over the coming weeks and the following rankings are how I see the teams at the minute based on them meeting at a neutral venue. The latest Betfair odds are in brackets.
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1. Pittsburgh (6.4)
2. Baltimore (16)
3. Philadelphia (16.5)
4. Indianapolis (12)
5. NY Giants (4.1)
6. Tennessee (7.2)
7. Carolina (7.0)
8. Minnesota (42)
9. Atlanta (36)
10. Arizona (65)
11. Miami (55)
12. San Diego (22)
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With the way the seeding system works it's not just a case of backing the top team, so after trying to decipher the outcomes of each game I've dutched the following teams:
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The big gamble is opposing Tennessee. I think they've flattered to deceive this season and even though they finished the regular season with a 13-3 record I can't see them pushing past the likes of Pittsburgh at this stage. They have afterall, lost 3 of their last 6 games. Famous last words eh?!?
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The PDC World Darts Championships also now rolls onto the Semi-Finals and how good was it to see Barney take out a 9 darter last night? He was on fire against Klaasen and the thought of him versus Taylor in the Final is a mouth watering prospect. I can't see Wade causing him too much of a problem on current form.
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I blew a bit of profit last night but at least I've started the year in a positive way:
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Darts
King v Bates : £25.54
Taylor v Stompe : £44.97
Nicholson v Wade : £49.73
Van Barneveld v Klaasen : £79.26
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Cheerio 2008

Since Last Post P/L: £641.21
Monthly P/L: £1,053.89
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With all the pre-tournament anticipation and media build-up it's very easy to get carried away during the first few matches of the PDC Darts World Championships, and that's exactly what I did. I should've known better as by the end of Day 2 I'd traded in 6 matches and dug myself a loss of just over £250. Needless to say my confidence wasn't very high and a different approach was needed. Yep, it was time to cut back on my stake sizes and to just concentrate on making a profit in each market. It sounds easy to say but in reality it's much more difficult to practice, so I had to remind myself that my strategy was sound and that it had produced good results in 2007. That's the problem with Darts - there are not an awful lot of televised events, and when there are the format is often different to the one before. Not ideal conditions when you're trying to perfect entry and exit points!

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Anyway, the following 28 events were a grind but I stuck to my guns and ended with a profit in 22 of them. The temptation once I'd started winning was to up the ante, but I resisted the itchy feelings and thanks to this discipline am now able to post a profit of over a grand for December. Here are my final results for 2008:

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Darts

Jenkins v Smith : £42.86
Painter v Clark : £86.72
Priestley v French : £4.01
Bates v McBrearty : £55.42

Tabern v Beaton : £120.19

Van Gerwen v Young : £146.77

Walsh V Cavern : £40.74

Dudbridge v Fulwell : £17.21

Mardle v Fatum : £24.04

Manley v Sulijovic : £25.35

Mason v MaGowan : £27.38

Kantele v Ilagan : £57.58

Lewis v Stewart : £13.51

Lloyd V Klaasen : £6.03

Baxter v Kantele : £30.40

Osborne v losper : £20.07

Sulijovic v Dudbridge : £63.57

Taylor v Van Gerwen : £6.46

Mardle v Thornton : £38.71

Davis V Bates : £151.70

Baxter v Ovens : £11.97

Klaasen v Van Der Rassel : £91.12

Van Barneveld v Newton : £18.07

King v Walsh : £90.32

Priestley v MaGowan : £35.10

Osborne v Van Der Voort : £5.42

Wade v Eccles : £82.26

Taylor v Painter : £36.99

Bates V Dudbridge : £29.53

Nicholson v Priestley : £76.33

Smith v King : £67.65

Mardle v Stompe : £75.09

Hamilton v Klaasen : £117.40

Van Barneveld v Baxter : £22.52

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From reading that lot it may seem that Christmas was cancelled in our house but I promise you that wasn't the case, as in total there's only about 24 hours work there. After the stress of Caden's operation we were determined to enjoy every minute of the holidays and that's what we did. Seeing his face on Christmas morning was magical and it really made us realise how lucky we are. No trading experience could ever beat that feeling.

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So that's it then, the end of 2008 and if I'm honest I won't miss it! But from a trading viewpoint how have things gone?

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My hope at the beginning of the year was to achieve a profit after commission of £15,000, but unfortunately I fell short. With the final figure ending on £11,938.86 I'm a little disappointed, but after all that's gone on I can't be too hard on myself. Afterall, I'm still only trading part-time and it does mean that I've been able to generate over £20,000 from my original bank of £250 during the course of the last 29 months. That's not a bad effort. However, the most satisfying bit of all this is that I haven't spent the lot! As some of you may be aware, I've always been keen to re-invest as much of my winnings as possible to enable me to play with bigger stakes as I move forward. This has continued throughout the year and my trading bank now stands at £18,216 - a healthy increase on the £8,346 that I started with last January. In case any of you are concerned that I may blow that lot in one go I'll make it clear that I only use a portion of it at any one time. My current maximum exposure is just over 13% which equates to a stake of £2,459. These trades only happen on sports where I feel I have my biggest edge e.g. Cricket, and when the odds fall between a certain price range e.g. 1.01 to 1.50. Managing my risk is vital if I'm to continue making money.

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So what does 2009 hold in store? Nobody knows, but I do have a few wishes and resolutions that I'd like to see come true from both a personal and trading perspective. First the serious one:
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1. That all my friends and family stay healthy. It's true what they say - without your health money means absolutely nothing. I'd really like a normal, uneventful year.
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Then the rest:
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2. Is a £20,000 target after commission being greedy? Probably, but I won't beat myself up if I don't get there. The important thing is that I keep growing. I have a few exciting ideas up my sleeve that I'd like to see turned into reality so watch this space ;-)
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3. I start using my blog more like blog. As I now I sound like I've lost the plot let me explain. Everytime I write a post I feel the need to go into detail about everything and write a bloomin' novel! I need to calm down, post more often and just record my thoughts. I don't want to record drivel but there are other things I'd like to get off my chest apart from my profit and loss. Watch out for me going into a 'Dear Diary' mode though!
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4. This last wish is something which is out of my control. Please, please Betfair don't look to extract any further fees from your successful customers. Just in case you're wondering. I don't class myself in this bracket, but I understand the damage that would be caused if these big fish left. I've gone into these reasons before so I won't repeat myself - so please Betfair, just don't do it.
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Okay, I think I've said enough :-)
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May I wish you all a Happy New Year and may the coming 12 months live up to your expectations.
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Ciao for now.
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Doing The Math

Since Last Post P/L: £500.88
Monthly P/L: £500.88
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The last few days have been challenging. Not so much because of the trading but because I've had to take a good hard look at myself and delve into my past results to see if I can pick out any weaknesses in my methods.
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I mentioned in my last post that I felt that something wasn't right and boy am I glad that I've done this analysis. To start the ball rolling I decided to just go back over my last 3 months profit & loss and review the same statistics that had been mentioned by another blogger (you know who you are!)
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The results were interesting even if they did take a few hours to digest:

• My average win/loss per market : £41.94
• My average win : £102.15
• My average loss : £39.16
• My win % : 57%

Just taking the time to sit down and go through each market has been hugely beneficial with nowhere to hide but the bare facts - it really has been an eye opener! Okay, so what do they mean - what's the big deal? The key thing to remember here is that each of the above are all linked to each other. You can have a great win % but if your average win/loss per market is a negative figure you don't have to be a genius to work out you're losing money etc. From my stats it seems my main strength is cutting my losses quickly as there's quite a big difference in my average win and average loss figures. This is hugely positive and shows that I must be dealing with the psychological aspect of this game pretty well. If I'm looking to pick holes then maybe it's my average win/loss per market. To make a significant and consistent amounts each month this needs to be higher but Rome wasn't built in a day and I'm sure that this number's on an upward curve. Granted, these statistics are only representing my results for a short period of time so I'm now attempting to go a step further. I've already been in touch with Betfair and requested a full list of my settled markets since the 1st January 2007. This will allow me to build a better picture of how well I'm really doing and hopefully help me construct a road map for the rest of the year.

With all of this fresh in my mind I've found it a lot easier to focus over the last few days and it seems to have paid off:

Cricket
Durham v Kent : £170.91
Essex v Yorkshire : £154.96
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Darts
Mardle v Gray : £40.45
Jenkins v McGowan : £0.66
Priestley v Stompe : £1.51
Convery v Klaasen : £21.83
Lewis v Thornton : £28.62
Hamilton v Brenneman : £24.67
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Rugby Union
New Zealand v South Africa : £118.89
Australia v France : £7.61
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Motor Sport
British Grand Prix : £16.87
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On Friday, I was also moved to get involved in the Big Brother 9 winner market. I've not ventured into this area before but after noticing Darnell was a strong joint favourite I felt compelled to shove in a lay at average odds of 3.59. I just can't see him winning and with news that another 3 housemates were going in I was sure his price would drift over the next 9 weeks. At the time of writing he's drifted to 3.80.
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I know, I know, it's a TV show - but if you play it right I'm sure there's plenty of money to be made here. Let's hope I'm right!
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A Bridge Too Far

Since Last Post P/L: £45.65

Monthly P/L: £2,805.80

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When a milestone is in sight it’s hard not to try too hard and unfortunately I fell short off the £3k monthly profit I’d been hoping for. Over trading was largely to blame and despite knowing what I was doing was wrong I was drawn like a moth to flame to too many ‘false’ opportunities.
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Hindsight is a wonderful thing and after I’d read the book Market Wizards by Jack D. Schwager last year, one saying stuck in my mind – “We get out of the markets what we want from the markets”. It’s a profound statement and one which I find hugely thought provoking. Maybe I wasn’t ready to start dealing in those types of numbers just yet? :-)
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Here are my final trading results for May:
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Cricket
Rajasthan v Mumbai : £41.33
Deccan v Chennai : £149.29
Punjab v Rajasthan : £48.16
Chennai v Punjab : £44.02
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Darts
Taylor v Lewis : £21.82
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Rugby Union

Wasps v Leicester : £8.05
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Many of you will know that until now I’ve been re-investing every penny of my winnings back into my trading bank to try and increase my stake sizes gradually. This has worked well but as I explained in this post, it’s time for me to pay the piper - or Nicola, whichever you prefer.
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I guess she’s earned it and at least when I told her the good news that £561 would be winging its way into her bank account she smiled!
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In a nutshell, my profit & loss breakdown for the month is as follows:
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Monthly Profit : £2,805.80
Golden Handshake to Nic : £561.16
Total to Re-invest into Trading Bank : £2,244.64
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I can’t grumble though, the journey continues to move in the right direction and as long as the destination allows me time to enjoy the things that matter in life I’ll be more than happy.

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Sweet Dreams Are Made Of These

Since Last Post P/L: £802.81
Monthly P/L: £802.81

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Okay, if you want to blog interactively then listen to this clip in another window.

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I celebrated my 31st birthday on the weekend by going out for a meal to the Armless Dragon in Cardiff with Nicola and a few friends. The meal was ordinary, the service appalling but with good company we enjoyed the night. One things for sure though - I'm not as young as I used to be. Once upon a time I could guzzle gallons of lager and hardly feel a thing but after the equivalent of 6 or 7 pints I was ready for bed. How things have changed!

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As usual I was spoilt rotten and one of the many presents I received was the book 'The Way Of The Warrior Trader' by Richard D. McCall. Despite only being half way through I can't put the bloody thing down! I remember it being recommended by a fellow blogger and after having a quick preview on Amazon discovered it touched on an outlook similar to mine and I haven't been disappointed. Only time will tell if the lessons pay dividends but I already feel much more content than I was 3 or 4 weeks ago. Controlling emotions and the psychological aspect of trading is so important so anything I can pick up that will help with this difficult topic has to be a step in the right direction.

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Moving on....my full results for the week are:

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Darts

Wade v Part : £28.94

Van Barneveld v Jenkins : £58.15

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Cricket

Bangalore v Deccan : £172.63

Mumbai v Delhi : £289.16

Bangalore v Punjab : £253.93

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There's no prizes for guessing that I'm over the moon with the way things have gone over the last few days. It seemed almost every trade I made went the right way and it got so ridiculous at one point that I was £350 up in the Bangalore v Punjab match within 4 minutes of the first innings! I'd got involved just before the fall of 2 quick Bangalore wickets and the rest they say is history (although you'll notice I did squander a £100 of this profit during the remainder of the match). After such a great start, it would seem May promises so much, but I've been down this path before. Acting with caution is the key but if I can continue to take small steps each day then who knows where I'll finish up.

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The Deal

Since Last Post P/L: £530.66

Monthly P/L: £1326.94

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It seems like a lifetime ago but way back in this post I mentioned that I wouldn't look to make any withdrawals from my Betfair account until I'd accumulated a £10,000 trading bank. As I've now reached this total it's time to take stock and I can't let myself forget how important it's been to have Nicola's support along the way. Without her patience and understanding that I wasn't a drop kick who liked to gamble I wouldn't have been able to make it this far. The hours I've spent glued to the computer whilst she's been alone downstairs have always been accompanied by my shrieks that "I was doing this for us" but I'm not sure she 100% believed me. With this in mind it should therefore not surprise me that she now wants proof. I've hit the long awaited milestone and now she's very keen to cash in her chips and remind me of the deal that we made when I first started this trading odyssey - a monthly % of my winnings!

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What could I do? What woman in their right mind would let their other half gamble as a hobby!?! I was desperate and in a moment of weakness agreed that I would withdraw 50% of any future winnings for our joint use after hitting the target. Naturally, now that I've managed the feat my instinct has been to horde my stash and to renegotiate.

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It wasn't easy - she's a tough nut to crack is Nic - but I'm very pleased to say that we've now mutually agreed to reduce this figure to 20% under the guise that "I need money to make money". I believe this to be the truth but my suggestion of luxury villas and diamond bracelets may have sweetened the deal in my favour.

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Oh bugger....I've gone and done it again....!!!

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My full results for this week have been:

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Darts

Manley v Lewis : £16.73

Mardle v Taylor : £18.15

Van Barneveld v Wade : £29.05

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Motor Sport

Spanish Grand Prix : £0.63

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Cricket

Chennai v Kolkata : £223.69

Bangalore v Rajasthan : £360.37

Punjab v Delhi : £430.10

Mumbai v Deccan : £172.64

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Rugby Union

London Irish v Toulouse : £41.86

Saracens v Munster : £77.40

Heineken Cup - Outright Winner : £11.00

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Some nice big green figures in there but I'm not too happy about some of the large red ones. My cricket trading has been good but I should have been able to control my losses much better so this is something I'm going to have to work on during the course of May.

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Switching subjects - If you've been reading my blog for a while you'll know that until now I've traded part time due to having a full time career. Well, things are changing. My employer has given me the option to reduce my working hours and after a little deliberation (it really wasn't much!) I've decided to try and address the work/life balance. From next week I'll be working 3 days a week (Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday) and hopefully spending the rest of my time either with my family or on Betfair. We're in the fortunate position where we should still have enough to pay the bills so this seems just too good an opportunity to pass up. I may be making a mistake but at certain times in life a door will open and you've just got to walk on through it.

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Start Of Something Big

Since Last Post P/L: £268.53
Monthly P/L: £796.28
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Some events come along and you know that things won't be the same again. Just as the Premier League has transformed the popularity of Darts in recent years, so to will the Indian Premier League transform the game of cricket. It's inevitable. You only had to tune in to the start of the tournament over the weekend to see that Twenty20 cricket is here to stay and that it has much more appeal to the average Joe Bloggs than the traditional Test Match or mundane 50 over equivalent. Why? That's a simple question to answer - it's just so much more exciting!
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The Kolkata Knight Riders versus the Deccan Chargers match on Sunday was a perfect example. A dodgy pitch, top players struggling to make runs and floodlight failure all added to the drama - in short, it had it all! Below is a snapshot of Kolkata's price throughout the game with the green line their price before the start and the blue line indicating their price at the change of innings. Look at the swings! I know it's a coined phrase but this was a "traders dream". Opinions seemed to change following each ball bowled, the market was filled with money and the atmosphere at the grounds electric - fantastic stuff!


So the taste buds have been stimulated and I can't wait for the weekend. On Thursday, Darts will be the appetiser but I've already got my eyes on what promises to be another great Saturday & Sunday. With four IPL games in two days we really are being spoilt.
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Here's a list of my latest results:
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Rugby Union
Bath v Leicester : £61.87
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Darts
Jenkins v Mardle : £1.06
Manley v Wade : £11.97
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Cricket
Punjab v Chennai : £66.78
Delhi v Rajasthan : £64.40
Kolkata v Deccan : £265.31
Mumbai v Bangalore : £59.50
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Making Par

Since Last Post P/L: £19.30

Monthly P/L: £527.75

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A frustrating week has seen me make hardly any progress with greed stunting my growth once again. After a consistent performance in the first 3 Premier League darts matches on Thursday, I totally crumbled in the Taylor v Barneveld matchup. The market hugely favoured Taylor and I was always looking for a swing the other way. The result? My false hopes allowed me to get my fingers burned and it was only after a concerted effort in trading the Masters that I've managed to get back to where I was.

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I'd done my homework and before a ball had been hit I was confident that Tiger's price of 2.42 was way too short. The guy is a machine and he'd been in great form but I'd noted that since the course had been lengthened in 2006 his best round had only been a 70. I accepted that if he hit 70 four days on the trot he'd probably win but I thought that it was unlikely and so it proved. Friday and Saturday I struggled to make a slight profit but my strategy remained the same going into the last day - to lay Tiger at the soonest opportunity and for the lowest price possible.

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I jot down my thoughts as I trade to help me understand why I'm doing the things that I'm doing and I followed this process again during the 4th round. Here's a snip-it of my ramblings just in case you're interested:

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19.29: Price on Tiger too short at 5.30. Two easier holes ahead but if he pars both he should drift very quickly. A big 30 minutes ahead. Need Immelman to get off to a steady start.

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19.38: Bugger - Immelman bogies the first!

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20.18: Tiger drops back to -4 and I can't see any way back. Too hard a course and too many players in front of him. His price is now 12.50.

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20.32: Tiger birdies the 6th and his price crashes back to 8.00 which is surely too low. Not getting involved...yet!

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20.42: Opposed Tiger at 7.60 and sure enough he drifted back to 8.80 pretty quickly - did I get out of this one too early? His price is now 9.20. Will I get another chance to go against him?

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20.54: Time to switch my attention to Immelman - 2 shots clear - can he hold on?

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21.18: Thoughts about who will win have gone out the window. Immelman's price is so volatile I'm just chasing the movement.

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21.43: Immelman is 5 shots clear and it looks like the others are throwing it away. Time to call it a day.

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By just reading my thoughts back on that 2 hour period it surprising how useful I find it as I can almost picture each trade in my head and my thoughts at that time. Okay, it may not be Camtasia but it seems to be a useful tool that's working so I'll continue to use it with the slower moving sports.

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Here's a list of my full results for the week:

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Rugby Union

Heineken Cup - Outright Winner : £12.00

Gloucester v Saracens : £6.51

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Darts

Wade v Mardle : £21.39

Part v Lewis : £15.90

Manley v Jenkins : £23.99

Taylor v Van Barneveld : £137.93

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Golf

Shell Houston Open : £68.24

US Masters : £169.68

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Some great sporting action in there and the week ahead looks great too. It's the start of the Indian Premier League cricket and I really hope all the hype lives up to expectations. I have a feeling the tournament will either turn out to be great television or utter garbage - I've a feeling there won't be an in-between.

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Being Clinical

Since Last Post P/L: £508.45
Monthly P/L: £508.45

That's more like it! I've felt a great deal more relaxed over the last few days and this seems to have made a huge difference to the way I've been trading. I can feel the ambition coming back (which may have been lacking recently) and I'm more determined than ever to get stuck in and get the show back on the road.

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Controlled aggression has been the name of the game and this is where I see similarities between sports trading and poker. Those who play poker will know that if you enter every pot you're almost certain to lose in the long run. It's a case of being patient, playing the premium hands and when the odds fall in your favour being hyper-aggressive. By trading with this mindset (especially yesterday) I've been able to command my emotions and ensure that I'm the one who's dictating my results. The lesson here isn't surrounding the market, it's about taking responsibility and being highly responsive to what's happening around you.

Here's a full list of my latest results:
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Darts

Lewis v Taylor : £55.53

Manley v Van Barneveld : £7.21

Part v Mardle : £13.92

Wade v Lewis : £19.68

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Horse Racing

Grand National : £34.41

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Rugby Union

Heineken Cup - Outright Winner : £14.50

London Irish v Perpignan : £167.59

Gloucester v Munster : £244.61

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Soccer

Blue Square Premier - Winner 2007/2008 : £20.00

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There's some nice figures there which is very pleasing but the number of different markets I've been involved with may concern a few that I'm starting to charter into territories I know little about. I'll explain. The Grand National was a bit of fun (for low stakes) and my loss on the non league soccer was the outcome of some blind optimism at the end of last year that Ebbsfleet would win the league following my £35 investment in becoming a stakeholder! That one was a total waste of money and as it's now impossible for them to reach top spot the market has been settled.

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I'll be sitting back to relax and watch the Welsh teams in Heineken Cup action this afternoon so the only trading I'm likely to take a look at today will be the Shell Houston Open Golf this evening. I'm confident that I can keep my Golf form up to par as I warm up for the main course - the Masters @ Augusta which starts on Thursday. I can't wait!

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Mountain Climbing

Since Last Post P/L: £33.55

Monthly P/L: £150.50

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There are two ways at looking at my progress over the last month - slow & steady if you're an optimist and shaky & inconsistent if you're a pessimist. Fortunately, I can normally find a way of shining a positive light on most situations and in this case my view is that although I may be walking slowly I'm still not walking backwards.

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With life starting to settle down a bit I'm becoming more relaxed and as I'm a person who craves structure and routine this is most welcome. It's a been a challenging few weeks but there now seems to be some light at the end of the tunnel and I'm confident that April will help get my results back on track. It promises to be a busy month with plenty of trading action; the Masters @ Augusta, the start of the UK Domestic Cricket season, Indian Premier League Cricket and continued coverage of the Darts Premier League - surely this is my start to 2008?

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Here's my results since my last post:

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Darts

Jenkins v Wade : £7.04

Van Barneveld v Part : £16.99

Mardle v Manley : £41.25

Taylor v Jenkins : £35.85

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Rugby Union

EDF - Leicester v Wasps : £186.83

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Soccer

Man Utd v Liverpool : £16.16

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Golf

WGC CA Championship : £135.41

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Rugby Union has let me down this month and I'm not entirely sure why. I'm in the process of dissecting my approach to this market and maybe it's time for a little tinkering to the system? One thing is for sure, you can never sit still in this game.

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