Wind Of Change

Since Last Post P/L: £319.53

Monthly P/L: £867.85

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Unsettled Betfair customers will never have a better excuse to explore other options. The Premium Charge fiasco has rumbled on over the last week and now that the gate has been left open the question remains, "how many will walk through?" As many have said, the barriers preventing people from moving elsewhere are slowly coming down and I still can't believe that Betfair have remained silent on the issue. Heads seem firmly buried in the sand at Betfair Towers and short term thinking now seems to have clouded a once visionary company. With news circulating that Bet Angel are due to release API software for Betdaq within days, the time has come for us to join the exodus. Already websites are popping up to protest at the shoddy treatment and it should be of no surprise that the Betfair forum has gone into meltdown since the first debits were taken from qualifying accounts yesterday afternoon. The whole affair reminds me of what we often do in Wales when it comes to rugby - shoot ourselves in the foot.

So what have I been doing whilst this this has all been going on? Well, my strategy over recent days has been to do very little (apart from withdrawing another £2242 from my Betfair account) and to wait for the dust to settle. The incentive to trial systems on markets where I have little or no edge has gone, as the prospect of getting charged if I get 'lucky' doesn't appeal. However, fortunately for me, October and November are expected quiet months so I can afford to stand back and wait a while but once Betdaq becomes a real option, Betfair will become an expensive second option in my eyes. Bad feelings take a long time to dissolve.

Here's my final results for September:

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Cricket

Glamorgan v Worcestershire : £378.00

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American Football

San Francisco @ New Orleans : £3.52

Carolina @ Minnesota : £12.82

Arizona @ Washington : £21.46

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Golf

Ryder Cup 2008 - Winner : £7.71

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Horse Racing

Ascot : £20.00

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In case you haven't already read them, here are a few recent stories in the media regarding the ongoing situation:

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Business As Usual For Betfair Backers Hit By Charges

Betfair Provides a Lesson In Customer Alienation

Betfair Faces Criticism For Massive Rise In Charges

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Out Of Sorts

Since Last Post P/L: £548.32
Monthly P/L: £548.32

With all this uncertainty surrounding the new Betfair Premium charge it should of no surprise to learn that my trading over the last few weeks has been erratic. Yep, I've made a profit but my actions have been undisciplined and my results far too inconsistent. It seems that whenever change occurs in my life the same pattern emerges as exactly the same thing happened when my son was born in March. Maybe it's not just Betfair that find managing change difficult after all?!?

As today signals the last day of Premium Charge freedom I should now be in a position of clarity but if I'm honest I still haven't figured out what my next actions are going to be. Of course, there are a list of options; increase my stakes, explore Betdaq, dabble with spread betting etc. but I'm keen not to rush in and get my fingers burned (act in haste and repent at leisure and all that).

I still feel victimised though so this hasn't stopped me from taking a few steps to show my disapproval:

• I withdrew £2242 from my Betfair account earlier in the week. Not allowing Betfair to make a few pennies in interest has given me some satisfaction but I've left enough in there to act as a temporary float whilst I mull things over.
• I've created a jpg image on the left hand side of my blog that illustrates I oppose the new Premium Charge. This may seem petty but I'm sure that Betfair think this issue will blow over so I'm keen to keep reminding people it exists. If you want a copy of the image to display on your own blog/website etc. then leave your email address in the comment section of this post and I'll send it over to you.
• After receiving an invitation to attend the Betfair Academy programme I politely declined. Even though this is something that did interest me, how can I now promote a company that targets winners? The link to Betfair will remain on my link list but only to show the exchange still exists (please note - I don't get any type of commission from that link).
• Created my own little Bollywood spoof movie about the charge. View it here. Just a little bit of light entertainment to accompany the many other spoof movies posted on the Betfair forum.

It's also interesting to learn that the people over at Bet Angel seem equally as disgruntled as me. This is the notice that currently appears when you log-in to use their software:

PREMIUM CHARGES - BET ANGEL CONFERENCE SESSION
We note that despite being lobbied by us and our customers, Betfair have not made any further statements about the new charges. Therefore we have to assume they will come into effect on Monday. If they make no further statements over the weekend we plan to initiate a web conference session with interested users on Monday evening 7PM UK time. During this session we will have an open discussion and lay out our thoughts and plans. The session will be hosted by Peter Webb. Please check back on Monday morning on this page for details of how to join the session.

I'll be joining the session to see what Peter and the team have to say but I'm not too hopeful. I'm guessing that it'll go along the lines that steps have been made to design alternative software but these things will take time etc. If this is the case then it looks as though the exodus to Betdaq may have to be put on hold for the time being.

So that's that, but as some of you may have noticed I haven't posted any results for September yet. I felt that talking about wins/losses was inappropriate given the circumstances so here's a small catch-up:

American Football: £48.94

Cricket: £251.24

Horse Racing: £17.41

Golf: £84.54

Motor Sport: £177.04

Rugby Union: £39.46

Special Bets: £62.39

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Argy Bargy

Since Last Post P/L: £185.47
Monthly P/L: £779.63

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For a game that appears to have been resoundingly one sided, how the heck did I manage to suffer such a big loss? You've probably already guessed, the match I'm talking about was the South Africa v Argentina Rugby International which took place in Johannesburg on the weekend. The scoreline ended 63-9 in favour of the Springboks so surely this was a 1.01 train?!?

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No!

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The South Africans pre-match price was 1.05 and although it probably reflected their chance of winning the game, it probably didn't represent value as the Argies are normally a tough nut to crack. Yes, they'd been been buoyed by a recent win over the All Blacks but the situation was different here - this wasn't a Tri-Nations game and the boys in blue and white were fielding a decent team.

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So what did I do wrong?

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My first mistake was that I didn't really have a strategy before the match began. I find taking a view on what I expect to happen - even if that changes later on - extremely helpful. Without that view I can be prone to indecision, which (for me at least) is usually fatal when quick decisions are needed.

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My error was compounded when Argentina started strongly and my lack of control began to breed - a number of heavy tackles were putting the home side on the back foot and following a few infringements the South Americans were able to convert 3 penalty opportunities to open up a 9-0 lead. With 20 minutes gone this was starting to look more of a contest and with memories still fresh in the mind of Argentina beating France on their own patch at the World Cup, the likelihood of an upset began to increase. The odds on the favourites had now drifted to 1.30ish and this is where it went pear shaped.

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The South Africans were attacking so I lumped on and got matched within a second. I'd convinced myself that a score was on the cards but a dropped ball and a 60 metre kick ahead saw the visiting team counter attack and myself rushing for the lay button. A try for Argentina here would have put them 16-0 ahead and the market would have flip-flopped straight away. I admit I panicked, and looked to get out of my position at the nearest possible price. My lay was matched at 1.56.

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I hadn't followed my usual trading plan, had succumbed to indiscipline and as a consequence paid the price. I was staring at a maximum loss and should have switched off the computer to do something else. Another bout of poor decision making led to me staying in my seat, but fortunately over the next 10 minutes I grafted successfully to lessen my loss by £150. This could have gone tits up though, so grafting when you're down is not something I'd recommend, but it does show that I'd completely lost the plot by this point.

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Here are my latest results:

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Rugby Union

South Africa v Argentina : £202.10

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Golf

US PGA Championship : £24.32

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Cricket

Hampshire v Sussex : £363.25

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With the weather and other factors (even floodlights!) conspiring against me it's been a quiet week, so to make any profit after all that mess is a minor miracle. Putting those thoughts behind me is now crucial in order for me to keep moving forward.

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YOU Are Evicted

Since Last Post P/L: £402.31

Monthly P/L: £1123.63

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To be honest, I haven't got a clue how to start this post. It's been a strange week. There's been some highs, some lows and a few non events so I'm at a loss as to which I mention first.

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Okay, let's start with the bad stuff which all stemmed from the events of last Friday night. It was our works Summer Ball and as expected I got quite drunk. Now this hangover business is bad at the best of times but add a newly born baby into the mix and the following day can become an extremely long one indeed. However, Saturday morning started well - after slipping down a few paracetamols to get rid of the headache, 40 minutes later I'd traded the Tri-Nations game between Australia v South Africa for a profit. I should have stopped there as about midday that all too familiar warm, tingly feeling starting to come over me - you know the one - the achy, eye shutting, roll up in a ball sensation that feels like your body's shutting down. So did I do the sensible thing? Of course not - instead I thought it would be a great idea to give the horse racing markets "another go". You'll see from my results below that I lived up to the old adage that a fool and his money are soon parted. It got so ridiculous that by the end of the afternoon I was 'laying' any horse I didn't like the look of!

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Sunday saw the start of my recovery (a combined profit of £0.49 on the Golf and Grand Prix!) but it was from Monday onwards that I started to get back into the swing of things.

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I've mentioned many times on this blog about my desire to get more involved with Tennis and as the ATP Masters Rogers Cup began in Toronto, and with not much else happening, it seemed a good opportunity to take a look. Fortunately, the experience was a pleasant one and even after reducing my stake levels considerably (compared to what I use for Cricket) I was able to make over £50 for around an hours work. The only drawback here is that I see Cricket and Tennis conflicting when it comes to scheduling, so I'll really have to think how I structure my weeks to get the best from both worlds. With Cricket again being my saviour over the last few days there's just no way I can consider dropping the sport from my trading portfolio.

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Here are my full results from the past week:

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Rugby Union

Australia v South Africa : £26.13

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Golf

The Open Championship : £0.44

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Cricket

Durham v Glamorgan : £79.57

Durham v Somerset : £64.56

Glamorgan v Surrey : £294.72

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Motor Sport

German Grand Prix : £0.05

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Tennis

Llodra v Gasquet : £45.79

Canas v Soderling : £13.28

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Horse Racing

Newbury : £99.90

Ripon : £24.67

Market Rasen : £2.05

Yarmouth : £0.29

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So what about this weekend? Well my first involvement is in tonight's Big Brother 6th eviction market. Rebecca, Mohamed and Darnell are the individuals in the mix and after watching the programme regularly I'm convinced that Rebecca's price is a little off. Following last night's programme (she did have a bad show) she was trading at 1.15 and whilst I agree she should be favourite I don't think she'll get 87% of the vote. In the hope that I'm right, I've entered a £200 lay with the view of it being a straight up bet - I'm getting 13/2 that either Mohamed or Darnell will get evicted instead, and I'm happy with those odds.

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Tomorrow then promises to be the best day in the cricketing calendar - it's Twenty20 Cup Finals Day! The Rose Bowl in Southampton is the venue and with 3 matches played in succession it'll be a feast of 4's, 6's, wickets and wonga! Even if you're not a cricket fan it's hard not to enjoy all the razzmatazz.

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But.....before that all happens, myself and Nic are off to Chepstow races tonight with a gang of people from work. It should be a laugh and I won't be taking it too seriously. I've only given myself a £30 betting budget to play with, and as I'll be counting this as 'leisure time' I won't be recording any wins or losses in my results.

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If you're watching on TV, keep an eye out for me, I'll be holding a Betfair umbrella :-)

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Monitoring My Markets

Since Last Post P/L: £220.44
Monthly P/L: £721.32
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Inspired by my recent analysis, for the last week I've been meticulously tracking my performance against the key indicators I mentioned in my previous post. My approach has been consistent; look to improve my win %, grow my winning trades, cut any bad decisions short - quickly . This formula seems to be working as my win % is now up to 72% whilst I've still been able to maintain an average win per market of over £40. This is also not taking into consideration that when I trade cricket I often take out 'tie' insurance just in case the unlikely happens. The graph at the top of the page shows that I've been involved in 18 markets and you'll notice that I've been able to make gains in 13 of them. The most surprising bit (to me at least) is that I only make a significant amount a small percentage of the time (around 25%) and quite a lot of time not making much at all (also around 25%). It just goes to show how important it is to make clear targets in order to help maintain focus during the long periods of mediocre results.
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The one frustrating thing has been the lack of trading opportunities. With Yorkshire sending the Twenty20 Cup into disarray and the weather finally turning for the worse, most of my time has been spent sitting on my hands. Fortunately, this has given me plenty of time to think about practically everything and it's always good to de-clutter the mind every now and again.
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So what thoughts have passed through my mind?
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For starters, my hat goes off to anyone doing this full time as when things are quiet....they're quiet! With so much time on your hands it's very easy to get distracted, get lazy or just take your finger off the pulse. Staying disciplined is not something that can just be turned on and off for those who rely on trading as their only source of income - it's an essential ingredient that must be applied 24 hours a day. Easier said than done I'm sure as I've already noticed a considerable difference in my own mindset since cutting down my working hours.
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The other thing I've been mulling over is the importance of having a dream. Does it have to be realistic? It certainly helps but the point I'm trying to make is that you have to have a vision of where you're heading. Myself and Nic try to write a wish list at the end of every year which contains things we'd like to do during the coming 12 months and I definitely believe this helps us live rather than just exist. It's often too easy to get blinkered by circumstances around us that we tend to miss what's really important.
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Okay, I've started rambling now but I'm sure there's something in that last paragraph that relates to trading - I guess you're going to have to pick it out :-)
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Here's my latest results:
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Rugby Union
New Zealand v South Africa - 2nd Test : £40.60
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Cricket
Essex v Northants : £56.23
England v South Africa - 1st Test : £16.97
Worcestershire v Nottinghamshire : £102.06
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Golf
John Deere Classic : £4.58
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My interest in the Big Brother Winner market continues although I've now traded out of my 'Darnell' position following news that he had become 'head of the house'. I'm expecting his reprieve to be temporary and will be watching his progress closely as I still can't see him winning! I'll leave you for this week with a snapshot of my current position in this market.
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Holiday Hangover

Since Last Post P/L: £152.80

Monthly P/L: £317.49

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I survived – just! Apologies for not posting sooner but it’s taken a while for me to recover and with the Twenty20 Cup kicking into action I haven’t had much spare time on my hands. It was a great trip but the 4am start on the Friday took it’s toll and by the time I got back at midnight on the Monday I’d consumed enough alcohol to last a lifetime! Reluctantly I’ve had to admit that I’m not as young as I used to be. My days of dancing the night away until the early hours are now officially over.
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Positive gains have been difficult to come by recently and a little bit of indiscipline has crept into my trading. After having such a good month in May I suppose it should have been expected! The plan as they say in rugby circles is to now ‘build a lead’ and not get involved in any rash trades. Little and often needs to be the motto for the next week so I’ll be playing things tight with the aim of growing profits gradually.

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Here's a full list of my latest results:
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Rugby Union
Australia v Ireland : £56.30
New Zealand v England : £20.92
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Cricket
Kent v Sussex : £61.79
Worcestershire v Gloucestershire : £4.56
England v New Zealand (T20) : £70.65
Somerset v Warwickshire : £43.77
England v New Zealand (ODI) : £209.35
Middlesex v Surrey : £301.34
Lancashire v Durham : £64.06
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Golf
US Open - Winner : £129.31
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Tennis
Nadal v Djokovic : £2.45
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The highlight out of that lot was undoubtedly Tiger Woods winning the US Open on one leg - the guy's a freak. The winner market had more swings than a kiddies play park and even though Rocco Mediate was a gallant loser was the result ever in doubt? Tiger's putt on the 18th during the 4th round seemed destined for the hole and you just knew when it dropped that there'd only be one winner. News has broken today that Woods will be out for the rest of the season and whilst you have to feel sorry for him it should make for some competitive tournaments during the rest of the Summer.
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Elsewhere, it’s great to see the Betfair Trader back and posting on his blog. He and Matt from Punt.com have been an inspiration to me over the last 18 months so I hope he continues to let us know his thoughts.
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That's about it for now and I promise I won't leave it as long next time!
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Whilst The Sun Shines...

Since Last Post P/L: £742.88

Monthly P/L: £1545.69

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My part time hours have now kicked in and I'm starting to wonder why I didn't make the switch sooner :-) Take today for example.

• 8am - Got up and went to the gym (I joined on Friday - healthy body makes for a healthy mind and all that).
• 11am - Took Caden around to his Nan's as he's staying there tonight.
• 12pm - Decided it'd be nice for myself and Nic to go to Alfred's in Pontypridd for a spot of lunch - it's very good.
• 2pm - Got back home and had a nap.
• 3pm - Woke up to trade the cricket.
• 6pm - Hung up the mouse and knocked off the computer.

Sounds great eh? Seriously though, despite having a great couple of weeks I realise that the trading life cycle never travels in a smooth line so it's important I keep my feet on the ground and just keep plugging away. You'll see from my latest trading results that practically all of my involvement has centered on the Indian Premier League and as you may know, this tournament will come to an end at the beginning of June. But that's okay. It's good to rotate as 'sticking' to just the one format of one sport can become a little restrictive. Have a larger portfolio of events to fall back on is a sound move as not many sports are available to trade all year round. This isn't to say I think specialising isn't the best approach, I believe it is, but having some variety is also a great way of uncluttering the mind in an attempt to stay sharp providing you can still make money.

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Here's a breakdown of what I've been up to since my last update:

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Cricket

Rajasthan v Deccan : £38.18

Chennai v Punjab : £102.07

Deccan v Kolkata : £159.14

Rajasthan v Delhi : £466.54

Punjab v Bangalore : £55.65

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Rugby Union

Gloucester v Bath : £0.95

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Golf

The Players Championship : £1.39

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So it's back to work tomorrow and I know it may seem a bit strange to say but I'm quite looking forward to it! Three days on and four days off seems the right balance to me and it'll be nice to catchup with everyone in the office.

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Whether I'll still be saying this come tomorrow night remains to be seen!

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Making Par

Since Last Post P/L: £19.30

Monthly P/L: £527.75

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A frustrating week has seen me make hardly any progress with greed stunting my growth once again. After a consistent performance in the first 3 Premier League darts matches on Thursday, I totally crumbled in the Taylor v Barneveld matchup. The market hugely favoured Taylor and I was always looking for a swing the other way. The result? My false hopes allowed me to get my fingers burned and it was only after a concerted effort in trading the Masters that I've managed to get back to where I was.

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I'd done my homework and before a ball had been hit I was confident that Tiger's price of 2.42 was way too short. The guy is a machine and he'd been in great form but I'd noted that since the course had been lengthened in 2006 his best round had only been a 70. I accepted that if he hit 70 four days on the trot he'd probably win but I thought that it was unlikely and so it proved. Friday and Saturday I struggled to make a slight profit but my strategy remained the same going into the last day - to lay Tiger at the soonest opportunity and for the lowest price possible.

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I jot down my thoughts as I trade to help me understand why I'm doing the things that I'm doing and I followed this process again during the 4th round. Here's a snip-it of my ramblings just in case you're interested:

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19.29: Price on Tiger too short at 5.30. Two easier holes ahead but if he pars both he should drift very quickly. A big 30 minutes ahead. Need Immelman to get off to a steady start.

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19.38: Bugger - Immelman bogies the first!

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20.18: Tiger drops back to -4 and I can't see any way back. Too hard a course and too many players in front of him. His price is now 12.50.

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20.32: Tiger birdies the 6th and his price crashes back to 8.00 which is surely too low. Not getting involved...yet!

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20.42: Opposed Tiger at 7.60 and sure enough he drifted back to 8.80 pretty quickly - did I get out of this one too early? His price is now 9.20. Will I get another chance to go against him?

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20.54: Time to switch my attention to Immelman - 2 shots clear - can he hold on?

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21.18: Thoughts about who will win have gone out the window. Immelman's price is so volatile I'm just chasing the movement.

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21.43: Immelman is 5 shots clear and it looks like the others are throwing it away. Time to call it a day.

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By just reading my thoughts back on that 2 hour period it surprising how useful I find it as I can almost picture each trade in my head and my thoughts at that time. Okay, it may not be Camtasia but it seems to be a useful tool that's working so I'll continue to use it with the slower moving sports.

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Here's a list of my full results for the week:

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Rugby Union

Heineken Cup - Outright Winner : £12.00

Gloucester v Saracens : £6.51

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Darts

Wade v Mardle : £21.39

Part v Lewis : £15.90

Manley v Jenkins : £23.99

Taylor v Van Barneveld : £137.93

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Golf

Shell Houston Open : £68.24

US Masters : £169.68

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Some great sporting action in there and the week ahead looks great too. It's the start of the Indian Premier League cricket and I really hope all the hype lives up to expectations. I have a feeling the tournament will either turn out to be great television or utter garbage - I've a feeling there won't be an in-between.

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Being Clinical

Since Last Post P/L: £508.45
Monthly P/L: £508.45

That's more like it! I've felt a great deal more relaxed over the last few days and this seems to have made a huge difference to the way I've been trading. I can feel the ambition coming back (which may have been lacking recently) and I'm more determined than ever to get stuck in and get the show back on the road.

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Controlled aggression has been the name of the game and this is where I see similarities between sports trading and poker. Those who play poker will know that if you enter every pot you're almost certain to lose in the long run. It's a case of being patient, playing the premium hands and when the odds fall in your favour being hyper-aggressive. By trading with this mindset (especially yesterday) I've been able to command my emotions and ensure that I'm the one who's dictating my results. The lesson here isn't surrounding the market, it's about taking responsibility and being highly responsive to what's happening around you.

Here's a full list of my latest results:
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Darts

Lewis v Taylor : £55.53

Manley v Van Barneveld : £7.21

Part v Mardle : £13.92

Wade v Lewis : £19.68

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Horse Racing

Grand National : £34.41

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Rugby Union

Heineken Cup - Outright Winner : £14.50

London Irish v Perpignan : £167.59

Gloucester v Munster : £244.61

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Soccer

Blue Square Premier - Winner 2007/2008 : £20.00

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There's some nice figures there which is very pleasing but the number of different markets I've been involved with may concern a few that I'm starting to charter into territories I know little about. I'll explain. The Grand National was a bit of fun (for low stakes) and my loss on the non league soccer was the outcome of some blind optimism at the end of last year that Ebbsfleet would win the league following my £35 investment in becoming a stakeholder! That one was a total waste of money and as it's now impossible for them to reach top spot the market has been settled.

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I'll be sitting back to relax and watch the Welsh teams in Heineken Cup action this afternoon so the only trading I'm likely to take a look at today will be the Shell Houston Open Golf this evening. I'm confident that I can keep my Golf form up to par as I warm up for the main course - the Masters @ Augusta which starts on Thursday. I can't wait!

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Mountain Climbing

Since Last Post P/L: £33.55

Monthly P/L: £150.50

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There are two ways at looking at my progress over the last month - slow & steady if you're an optimist and shaky & inconsistent if you're a pessimist. Fortunately, I can normally find a way of shining a positive light on most situations and in this case my view is that although I may be walking slowly I'm still not walking backwards.

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With life starting to settle down a bit I'm becoming more relaxed and as I'm a person who craves structure and routine this is most welcome. It's a been a challenging few weeks but there now seems to be some light at the end of the tunnel and I'm confident that April will help get my results back on track. It promises to be a busy month with plenty of trading action; the Masters @ Augusta, the start of the UK Domestic Cricket season, Indian Premier League Cricket and continued coverage of the Darts Premier League - surely this is my start to 2008?

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Here's my results since my last post:

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Darts

Jenkins v Wade : £7.04

Van Barneveld v Part : £16.99

Mardle v Manley : £41.25

Taylor v Jenkins : £35.85

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Rugby Union

EDF - Leicester v Wasps : £186.83

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Soccer

Man Utd v Liverpool : £16.16

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Golf

WGC CA Championship : £135.41

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Rugby Union has let me down this month and I'm not entirely sure why. I'm in the process of dissecting my approach to this market and maybe it's time for a little tinkering to the system? One thing is for sure, you can never sit still in this game.

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Keeping Focused

Since Last Post P/L: £170.97
Monthly P/L: £116.95
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Don't ever underestimate the effect your personal circumstances can have on your profit & loss figure. From a trading perspective, March has until now has been an extremely disappointing month and it's only over the last few days that some evidence has appeared that I maybe on the road to recovery. I'm under no illusions that the arrival of Caden and all the additional responsibilities that go with having a baby are the reason I've been unsettled and in turn my mind hasn't been fully 'on the job' when switching on the computer. Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't swap him for the world but there's an important lesson to learn - events beyond our control can effect our mental state despite our best intentions and these changes can have a serious impact on how much money we can make.
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Here's my results since my last post:
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Golf
Arnold Palmer Invitational - Winner : £54.06
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Darts
Jenkins v Lewis : £43.77
Mardle v Barneveld : 53.87
Part v Manley : £19.27
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It's pleasing to see that Golf is starting to make a comeback to my portfolio. It's been a long time since I felt comfortable trading the sport and with Tourcast being discontinued I was sure that any edge I had may have disappeared.
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I've also spent a bit of time studying the Darts this week and last night was the first time of trialling the improved system with reduced stakes. The results were consistent but more importantly I felt confident in my 'call to actions'.
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Waiting For A Bus

Since Last Post P/L: £32.47

Monthly P/L: £241.55

Not even a huge 7 days of sporting upsets can make me a decent profit! It really has been the week of the underdog so where do I start? Castleford, Cardiff City, Barnsley, Scotland and even Wales securing the Triple Crown at Croke Park! Can you imagine getting all those on a 50p accumulator!?!

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All these examples and yet my profit & loss has been notable for it's lack of big green numbers and it's very difficult to look on the positive side of things. Granted, a win is a win but it seems that every profitable situation I've placed myself in has turned sour.

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I think I need to slow myself down, take the small wins when they present themselves and not get greedy. A situation I've been in many times before but it seems I'm still learning the same lessons. In fact, the more I think about it the more I realise that there's probably only a handful of trading lessons in total, only they rotate just as the last one gets forgotten.

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Here's my results since my last post:

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Darts

Mardle v Wade : £21.54

Lewis v Part : £24.71

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Rugby League

Castleford v Leeds : £1.28

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Rugby Union

Scotland v England : £7.04

France v Italy : £7.11

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Golf

PODS Championship : £28.09

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I'm sure this lack of progress won't continue for long, and as the title of this post suggests a flurry of nice gains will appear - I just wish they'd hurry up.

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A Day To Forget

Daily P/L: £155.57
Monthly P/L: £544.71
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Oh balls! In particular - golf balls. Today was not a good day and it wasn't helped by the fuzzy feeling hangover I was nursing or the row I had with my old man. Throw into the mix the most topsy turvey Open Championship for years and you have a recipe for disaster. Okay, it wasn't quite that bad but I felt very deflated at the end of it all.
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The British Open
Sergio Garcia is a great golfer but for as long as I can remember he's been thought of as a bit of a bottler when it matters - but - surely not today? When he began the final round he was 3 shots ahead of Steve Stricker and a further 3 ahead of the field and a score of 71 (par for the course) would surely be enough to take the title? Yes, it would have been but it didn't happen. Garcia faltered but I missed the signs of his demise and started to go down with him. I was never ahead and the drama over the closing holes just made things worse. My loss was £121.49 and I should have turned the computer off then but couldn't resist a look at the...
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Stan James World Matchplay
I'm going to Blackpool to watch this on Friday so I thought I'd take a look to get a taste of what lies ahead but I should've known better. Darts has been a bogey sport for me recently and my only guess as to why is that I must be having difficulty in switching between the volatility of the slower trading sports (golf & cricket) and the quicker ones. I only traded the one match - Painter v Gray - but did so very badly. The outright market has definitely changed since my success at the World Championships in December, and my failure to adjust with it has led to my problems. To cap off a miserable day I lost £34.08 on this match.
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I'm not going to get too down though. I still hold a healthy profit for the month and because I want to keep it that way it's likely my only large trading activity left for the month will be the Pro 40 game between Warwickshire and Nottinghamshire on Tuesday. I'm then going to Prague with work on Wednesday so it's all go. Busy weeks ahead are normally not good for trading as any distractions can lead to lapses of concentration.
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Pole Position

Daily P/L: £50.31
Monthly P/L: £194.67

As they say, patience is a virtue. Picking my moments seems to be working but I'll be glad to see the back of May. It's been tough and with the finals of the Premier League Darts tomorrow there's plenty of scope for things to go pear-shaped. I plan to be more cautious than normal as finishing the month in profit makes such a big difference to me. I don't want to ruin all the good work I've done over the past couple of weeks with a few moments of madness.

Today was all about picking up what I could and I'm fairly happy with the results.

Monaco Grand Prix
A lot of the hype this week has been about Lewis Hamilton. The rookie has had a fantastic start to his Formula 1 career and after securing 2nd place on the grid he had a great chance to win his first Grand Prix. Unfortunately, he didn't quite do it but he gave it a fantastic effort and this guy has a big future a head of him if he can keep himself level-headed. I'm still not 100% comfortable in trading this sport but I'm learning things with each race. You have to remember that if you enter a trade and one of the drivers retires (crashes or has technical failure etc.) you could lose a lot of money so this has to be taken into account when determining stake sizes. My profit on the race was £27.02.

Crowne Plaza Invitational
Rain had affected the tournament over the weekend which meant that the players had to finish off their 3rd round before playing the final round today. It was anybody's game going into the final 18 holes as there was a number of players within a couple of shots of the lead but there seemed to be value in opposing Jim Furyk. Jim's a very good player but I don't think he's been quite as clinical this season compared to his normal standards. He was trading in the 3.00 to 5.00 range for most of the round which I felt was a little on the low side. He ended up making a late rally over the closing holes and could have won it in a playoff but fortunately I'd turned off the computer by then. I'm starting to get a better feel for golf again and even though I felt I could have performed better I was still able to make a gain of £23.29 here.

Being Patient

Since Last Post P/L: £3.42
Monthly P/L: £131.51

I've been sitting on my hands since the weekend as I don't want a repeat of getting involved in events I should be leaving well alone. Instead, I've decided to wait until Saturday and just stick with the rugby. It's very important for me to finish the month in profit and if I pick my moments I think I can finish with a healthy result.

Last Sunday I did have a little dabble but as the end result was a bit of washout I've been a little slack in updating the blog. This is what happened:

Spanish Grand Prix
Formula 1 intrigues me. It's not the best spectator sport as only a few drivers normally win but from a trading perspective it appears to have plenty of opportunities. I'll give an example - Massa was in pole position before the race and was trading at around 2.60. A lot had been mentioned about how important it would be to lead at the first bend as there'd be a great chance of opening up a gap quite quickly. Sure enough, Massa managed to hold onto first place (after a brief touch of cars with Alonso) and within a few minutes his price was trading at 1.60 - a full one point swing with less than a few laps completed! Obviously, there's plenty of traders out there who make serious money from this so I'm going to give it more attention as the season progresses. My profit on the race was £32.87.

The Players @ Sawgrass
I'm still struggling to find the golf form which gave me a lot of confidence last year. I'm not keen on backing players during the 4th round of any tournament and even though Phil Mickelson maneuvered himself into a very strong position within the first couple of holes I was always looking for things to move against him. My belief was that the tough course would make things difficult for him at some point but this didn't happen and in the end he sealed a comfortable victory. There's not many close to Tiger's standard but Phil is one of the contenders. I decided to take a loss of £29.45 so that I could still show a green figure for the day.
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A Mixed Bag

Since Last Post P/L: £85.15
Monthly P/L: £174.81

I traded poorly over the weekend as I was trying to 'push it'. Luckily, I managed to stay on the right side of my profit & loss but it does concern me that a lack of discipline crept into my approach. I know why this is - I was forced into trading sports I'm still learning to trade but my expectation levels were the same as if I was trading all rugby and darts matches. As my results weren't hitting my expectations I felt the need to force things and 'over-trade' which we all know is the wrong way to go. I now need to spend more time analysing cricket and golf to come up with an edge that will see me through the summer.

Bristol v Worcester
After the treat of European rugby over recent months it appears the good times are over as the liquidity in this game was very low. This meant less opportunities and therefore a smaller profit. I was out of the game by half time with an all round green figure of £20.62.

Enzo Macaranelli v Bobby Gunn
Saturday night promised a boxing extravaganza and even though it didn't live up to expectations I thought I'd spotted an opportunity in this fight. Macaranelli is an excellent boxer but to me his trading price of 1.09 before the fight was too short. As the fight was going in-play my strategy was to get out after 5-6 rounds when I'd try and back him for around 1.20. It didn't turn out this way as Bobby 'The Machine' Gunn turned out to be more of a 'Tumble Dryer' and fell to the canvas soon after the fight started. My low liability meant I only made a small loss of £9.90.

Australia v England
I convinced myself that England had a chance in this one and that proved costly. After posting a score of 247 the general opinion on the Betfair forum was that England hadn't scored enough and even though I agreed I didn't think it was as bad as many thought. I'd previously jotted down that a par score would be around 265 so if England could take a couple of early wickets it'd be 'match on'. They didn't and they also struggled to peg the Australian score back (mainly due to an expensive Mahmood) and once Ponting got settled an English victory was never on the cards. My delay in realising this meant a loss of £30.84.

US Masters
The course at Augusta is a beast. It's very long and very difficult and this meant it was impossible to identify a winner until the final holes. The key point for me was Zach Johnson's shot to the par 3 16th. As soon as it landed 10 feet away from the pin I lumped on him at 1.80 and this proved to be a wise move. The 16th hole has ended many dreams in the past and as soon as he made birdie I guessed he'd done enough to take the green jacket. Tiger Woods made me sweat a little but it wasn't to be his day and even though Johnson made a bogey on the 17th he'd done enough to take victory. I ended up with a flattering profit of £105.27 on the tournament.

I'm doing the garden tomorrow and it's back to the day job on Tuesday so my next trading action will be the darts on Thursday - where am I going to make profits after that finishes?!?

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Super Sunday

Daily P/L: £68.53
Monthly P/L: £134.10

I had a great day today which has helped push me up to a decent total for the month. My trading day consisted of:

Gloucester v Leicester
Even though I'd finished trading the match by half time I was surprised that Leicester ended up losing - in my eyes they had enough to put Gloucester away but perhaps they didn't want it enough. Some trades at key times helped me to a £18.47 profit on the match.

England v France
Fair play to England, they did a job on France who never looked in top gear. I don't think England are a great team yet but there's no doubt that Brian Ashton has made a significant difference. For starters he's picked the right players. This is something his predecessor Andy Robinson completely messed up. France were trading as low as 1.20 in the first half which was a crazy price considering at the time they were only 3-0 up - I didn't lump on at this point but in hindsight I should have! Nevermind, I still managed a profit of £26.42.

PGA TOUR - PODS Championship
Who said that the older you get the worse you get? This doesn't apply to Mark Calcavecchia. He turned back the clock and ended up winning the tournament and all thanks to his putter - he sunk a few long ones to push himself ahead of the pack and never got caught. From a trading point of view I was starting to get a little tired so I called it a day once I'd made a profit of £17.56.

I also decided to follow David Stewarts HorseGraph again and he didn't fail to deliver. Sure enough, the race followed his analysis and 'Gidam Gidam' secured the win. I'm beginning to become a big fan of Dave's as it's obvious this guy knows his stuff - and the best bit? - his information is free (for how long!?!) to anyone who visits his site. Thanks Dave, I didn't win much due to my low stakes but I'll take £6.08 any day.

I plan to watch the Tennis for the next few days to try and devise a winning strategy. There's a lot of money to be made if you know what you're doing but it's also a sport that can turn against you very quickly if you don't. Therefore, I'll probably hold back and wait for the Premier League Darts on Thursday.