Daylight Robbery

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Since Last Update P/L: £76.14
Monthly P/L: £755.34

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I'm not in the best of moods right now following the discovery of my Betfair Premium Charge for last week - £76.14!

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So that everyone that reads this post understands, let's make this clear. This is a charge that Betfair make even after they've taken commission AND one which incurs no risk to themselves!

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To make that £400 profit I had to put big sums of money on the line (to me at least) and back my own judgement. I could have lost, but because I don't very often (through skill and hard work) I'm victimised and left feeling like an employee. The graph above shows all of my wins and losses for the month so far and you can see that the Premium Charges (the dark red columns) are currently clocking up most of the negative figures.

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I know there are many other traders out there paying more than this but I still find it unbelievable how a company can change their business ethics and hike their charges up so much (and get away with it) practically overnight.

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Until now I vowed to myself that I'd give Betfair the benefit of the doubt until I could at least judge for myself, but after the last couple of weeks I'm now convinced they're totally taking advantage of their position in the marketplace and extorting the people they've previously gone out of their way to attract! I'm not a happy bunny and with the cricket season fast approaching I really need to consider my options.

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I'll change topic briefly. Tomorrow sees the final of Celebrity Big Brother and I've gone 'All In' on Coolio. For some reason I've got a feeling Verne won't win, so it's seems a straight shoot-out between Terry and the American rapper.

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Green House

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The figures might not be the biggest but after making a series of small trades I've managed to make a green book on the Celebrity Big Brother market. Verne Troyer continues to lead the way and even though he's a justified hot favourite there's the risk that the Producers could still throw another contestant into the mix to liven things up. If they do it's likely to be one of them characters that you'll either love or loathe so be careful about jumping on the 'Mini-Me' train to early. One surprise is the price available on Coolio. Okay, he's controversial and a tad annoying but you can't deny that he's entertaining. With that kind of personality I wouldn't be surprised to see his price shorten quickly if/when he comes up with something unpredictable.
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Elsewhere, the 21st January sees a planned 'Betfair' protest organised by Dariusz from the blog 'Betdaq Revolution'. It's a chance for those of you affected by the Betfair Premium Charge to make your feelings known. Even though I'm all for increased competition in the Betting Exchange market I won't be taking part this time. This is my quiet time of the year and even if I stopped using Betfair for 2 weeks they'd hardly notice.
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First Impressions

Since Last Post P/L: £40.98

Monthly P/L: £40.98
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Celebrity Big Brother got underway last night and even though it may seem a little sad, the thought of all these prima-donnas arguing over the milk gets me excited. The line-up is a good mix of personalities but one in particular looks to have stolen the show already.

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Verne Troyer is best known for the role he played as Mini-Me in the Austin Powers series of films, and even though he only measures 2 feet 8 inches it seems he's been keen to explore other opportunities since the last movie 'Goldmember' was released in 2002. Gus from the Tellybetting blog has already pointed out that Verne has some form when it comes to reality shows and as I'm a big believer in first impressions I've decided to make a play after just the first show. I'm opposing the female contestants as voting usually goes the way of the males when the decision on who gets evicted gets put to the public. Here's my book as it currently stands:

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Tonight also sees the start of the NFL playoffs and as usual I've tried to predict the eventual winner of the Superbowl. Last year I did quite poorly so I'm hoping to rectify things over the coming weeks and the following rankings are how I see the teams at the minute based on them meeting at a neutral venue. The latest Betfair odds are in brackets.
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1. Pittsburgh (6.4)
2. Baltimore (16)
3. Philadelphia (16.5)
4. Indianapolis (12)
5. NY Giants (4.1)
6. Tennessee (7.2)
7. Carolina (7.0)
8. Minnesota (42)
9. Atlanta (36)
10. Arizona (65)
11. Miami (55)
12. San Diego (22)
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With the way the seeding system works it's not just a case of backing the top team, so after trying to decipher the outcomes of each game I've dutched the following teams:
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The big gamble is opposing Tennessee. I think they've flattered to deceive this season and even though they finished the regular season with a 13-3 record I can't see them pushing past the likes of Pittsburgh at this stage. They have afterall, lost 3 of their last 6 games. Famous last words eh?!?
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The PDC World Darts Championships also now rolls onto the Semi-Finals and how good was it to see Barney take out a 9 darter last night? He was on fire against Klaasen and the thought of him versus Taylor in the Final is a mouth watering prospect. I can't see Wade causing him too much of a problem on current form.
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I blew a bit of profit last night but at least I've started the year in a positive way:
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Darts
King v Bates : £25.54
Taylor v Stompe : £44.97
Nicholson v Wade : £49.73
Van Barneveld v Klaasen : £79.26
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Out Of Sorts

Since Last Post P/L: £548.32
Monthly P/L: £548.32

With all this uncertainty surrounding the new Betfair Premium charge it should of no surprise to learn that my trading over the last few weeks has been erratic. Yep, I've made a profit but my actions have been undisciplined and my results far too inconsistent. It seems that whenever change occurs in my life the same pattern emerges as exactly the same thing happened when my son was born in March. Maybe it's not just Betfair that find managing change difficult after all?!?

As today signals the last day of Premium Charge freedom I should now be in a position of clarity but if I'm honest I still haven't figured out what my next actions are going to be. Of course, there are a list of options; increase my stakes, explore Betdaq, dabble with spread betting etc. but I'm keen not to rush in and get my fingers burned (act in haste and repent at leisure and all that).

I still feel victimised though so this hasn't stopped me from taking a few steps to show my disapproval:

• I withdrew £2242 from my Betfair account earlier in the week. Not allowing Betfair to make a few pennies in interest has given me some satisfaction but I've left enough in there to act as a temporary float whilst I mull things over.
• I've created a jpg image on the left hand side of my blog that illustrates I oppose the new Premium Charge. This may seem petty but I'm sure that Betfair think this issue will blow over so I'm keen to keep reminding people it exists. If you want a copy of the image to display on your own blog/website etc. then leave your email address in the comment section of this post and I'll send it over to you.
• After receiving an invitation to attend the Betfair Academy programme I politely declined. Even though this is something that did interest me, how can I now promote a company that targets winners? The link to Betfair will remain on my link list but only to show the exchange still exists (please note - I don't get any type of commission from that link).
• Created my own little Bollywood spoof movie about the charge. View it here. Just a little bit of light entertainment to accompany the many other spoof movies posted on the Betfair forum.

It's also interesting to learn that the people over at Bet Angel seem equally as disgruntled as me. This is the notice that currently appears when you log-in to use their software:

PREMIUM CHARGES - BET ANGEL CONFERENCE SESSION
We note that despite being lobbied by us and our customers, Betfair have not made any further statements about the new charges. Therefore we have to assume they will come into effect on Monday. If they make no further statements over the weekend we plan to initiate a web conference session with interested users on Monday evening 7PM UK time. During this session we will have an open discussion and lay out our thoughts and plans. The session will be hosted by Peter Webb. Please check back on Monday morning on this page for details of how to join the session.

I'll be joining the session to see what Peter and the team have to say but I'm not too hopeful. I'm guessing that it'll go along the lines that steps have been made to design alternative software but these things will take time etc. If this is the case then it looks as though the exodus to Betdaq may have to be put on hold for the time being.

So that's that, but as some of you may have noticed I haven't posted any results for September yet. I felt that talking about wins/losses was inappropriate given the circumstances so here's a small catch-up:

American Football: £48.94

Cricket: £251.24

Horse Racing: £17.41

Golf: £84.54

Motor Sport: £177.04

Rugby Union: £39.46

Special Bets: £62.39

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No Boundaries

Blue : 2008

Pink : 2007

Orange : 2006

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Since Last Post P/L: £540.23
Monthly P/L: £1,663.86

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Rebecca went! I suppose it was to be expected but after having a pretty successful evening at the races (I won £60) it was a bit of a disappointment to hear that she'd gone. Darnell and Mohamed can count themselves lucky - this is the most open Big Brother there's been and with no certain winner, I can foresee a few shocks and surprises before the series ends. The show seems like it's been on the box forever but there's still another 5 weeks to go!

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Saturday was sublime. With the sun scorching and the fans licking their lips, the scene was set for some serious action and the players didn't let anyone down. After 119 overs of pulsating entertainment the tournament went down to the last 6 balls and by this stage I was absolutely knackered. Is there any wonder why this format of the game is attracting so much interest? Everyone loves it! The sooner they scrap the County Championship the better :-)

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Fortunately, all this cricket has allowed me to finish the month with a bit of a flurry and with a 12% growth of my trading bank during July, I'm quite happy with how things have gone. By analysing my trading activity in more detail it's helped me to concentrate at a level higher and for longer periods than in recent times. One glance at my key statistics backs this up with my win % particularly pleasing:

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Average win/loss per market : £41.60

Average win : £73.43

Average loss : £24.53

Win % : 67.50%

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Here's my final results for July:

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Tennis

Gonzalez v Berdych : £6.61

Robredo v Soderling : £77.73

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Cricket

Essex v Kent : £67.63

Middlesex v Durham : £109.56

Kent v Middlesex : £464.16

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Special Bets

Big Brother - 6th Eviction : £30.00

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Attempting to teach myself the tennis markets has been a little costly but I get the feeling it'll be worthwhile in the long run. I keep reminding myself that twelve months ago I didn't have a clue how to trade cricket and it was only after spending a lot of time studying the game that things started to turn the corner. I'll keep plugging away as I don't want to become a 'one trick pony' just yet.

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Before I go, I'd like to say thanks to those who have voted in my current poll. The results have given me plenty of food for thought and I think the direction on where I'm heading is now a little clearer.

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Ciao for now!

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Monitoring My Markets

Since Last Post P/L: £220.44
Monthly P/L: £721.32
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Inspired by my recent analysis, for the last week I've been meticulously tracking my performance against the key indicators I mentioned in my previous post. My approach has been consistent; look to improve my win %, grow my winning trades, cut any bad decisions short - quickly . This formula seems to be working as my win % is now up to 72% whilst I've still been able to maintain an average win per market of over £40. This is also not taking into consideration that when I trade cricket I often take out 'tie' insurance just in case the unlikely happens. The graph at the top of the page shows that I've been involved in 18 markets and you'll notice that I've been able to make gains in 13 of them. The most surprising bit (to me at least) is that I only make a significant amount a small percentage of the time (around 25%) and quite a lot of time not making much at all (also around 25%). It just goes to show how important it is to make clear targets in order to help maintain focus during the long periods of mediocre results.
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The one frustrating thing has been the lack of trading opportunities. With Yorkshire sending the Twenty20 Cup into disarray and the weather finally turning for the worse, most of my time has been spent sitting on my hands. Fortunately, this has given me plenty of time to think about practically everything and it's always good to de-clutter the mind every now and again.
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So what thoughts have passed through my mind?
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For starters, my hat goes off to anyone doing this full time as when things are quiet....they're quiet! With so much time on your hands it's very easy to get distracted, get lazy or just take your finger off the pulse. Staying disciplined is not something that can just be turned on and off for those who rely on trading as their only source of income - it's an essential ingredient that must be applied 24 hours a day. Easier said than done I'm sure as I've already noticed a considerable difference in my own mindset since cutting down my working hours.
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The other thing I've been mulling over is the importance of having a dream. Does it have to be realistic? It certainly helps but the point I'm trying to make is that you have to have a vision of where you're heading. Myself and Nic try to write a wish list at the end of every year which contains things we'd like to do during the coming 12 months and I definitely believe this helps us live rather than just exist. It's often too easy to get blinkered by circumstances around us that we tend to miss what's really important.
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Okay, I've started rambling now but I'm sure there's something in that last paragraph that relates to trading - I guess you're going to have to pick it out :-)
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Here's my latest results:
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Rugby Union
New Zealand v South Africa - 2nd Test : £40.60
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Cricket
Essex v Northants : £56.23
England v South Africa - 1st Test : £16.97
Worcestershire v Nottinghamshire : £102.06
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Golf
John Deere Classic : £4.58
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My interest in the Big Brother Winner market continues although I've now traded out of my 'Darnell' position following news that he had become 'head of the house'. I'm expecting his reprieve to be temporary and will be watching his progress closely as I still can't see him winning! I'll leave you for this week with a snapshot of my current position in this market.
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Doing The Math

Since Last Post P/L: £500.88
Monthly P/L: £500.88
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The last few days have been challenging. Not so much because of the trading but because I've had to take a good hard look at myself and delve into my past results to see if I can pick out any weaknesses in my methods.
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I mentioned in my last post that I felt that something wasn't right and boy am I glad that I've done this analysis. To start the ball rolling I decided to just go back over my last 3 months profit & loss and review the same statistics that had been mentioned by another blogger (you know who you are!)
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The results were interesting even if they did take a few hours to digest:

• My average win/loss per market : £41.94
• My average win : £102.15
• My average loss : £39.16
• My win % : 57%

Just taking the time to sit down and go through each market has been hugely beneficial with nowhere to hide but the bare facts - it really has been an eye opener! Okay, so what do they mean - what's the big deal? The key thing to remember here is that each of the above are all linked to each other. You can have a great win % but if your average win/loss per market is a negative figure you don't have to be a genius to work out you're losing money etc. From my stats it seems my main strength is cutting my losses quickly as there's quite a big difference in my average win and average loss figures. This is hugely positive and shows that I must be dealing with the psychological aspect of this game pretty well. If I'm looking to pick holes then maybe it's my average win/loss per market. To make a significant and consistent amounts each month this needs to be higher but Rome wasn't built in a day and I'm sure that this number's on an upward curve. Granted, these statistics are only representing my results for a short period of time so I'm now attempting to go a step further. I've already been in touch with Betfair and requested a full list of my settled markets since the 1st January 2007. This will allow me to build a better picture of how well I'm really doing and hopefully help me construct a road map for the rest of the year.

With all of this fresh in my mind I've found it a lot easier to focus over the last few days and it seems to have paid off:

Cricket
Durham v Kent : £170.91
Essex v Yorkshire : £154.96
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Darts
Mardle v Gray : £40.45
Jenkins v McGowan : £0.66
Priestley v Stompe : £1.51
Convery v Klaasen : £21.83
Lewis v Thornton : £28.62
Hamilton v Brenneman : £24.67
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Rugby Union
New Zealand v South Africa : £118.89
Australia v France : £7.61
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Motor Sport
British Grand Prix : £16.87
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On Friday, I was also moved to get involved in the Big Brother 9 winner market. I've not ventured into this area before but after noticing Darnell was a strong joint favourite I felt compelled to shove in a lay at average odds of 3.59. I just can't see him winning and with news that another 3 housemates were going in I was sure his price would drift over the next 9 weeks. At the time of writing he's drifted to 3.80.
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I know, I know, it's a TV show - but if you play it right I'm sure there's plenty of money to be made here. Let's hope I'm right!
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