Out Of Sorts

Since Last Post P/L: £548.32
Monthly P/L: £548.32

With all this uncertainty surrounding the new Betfair Premium charge it should of no surprise to learn that my trading over the last few weeks has been erratic. Yep, I've made a profit but my actions have been undisciplined and my results far too inconsistent. It seems that whenever change occurs in my life the same pattern emerges as exactly the same thing happened when my son was born in March. Maybe it's not just Betfair that find managing change difficult after all?!?

As today signals the last day of Premium Charge freedom I should now be in a position of clarity but if I'm honest I still haven't figured out what my next actions are going to be. Of course, there are a list of options; increase my stakes, explore Betdaq, dabble with spread betting etc. but I'm keen not to rush in and get my fingers burned (act in haste and repent at leisure and all that).

I still feel victimised though so this hasn't stopped me from taking a few steps to show my disapproval:

• I withdrew £2242 from my Betfair account earlier in the week. Not allowing Betfair to make a few pennies in interest has given me some satisfaction but I've left enough in there to act as a temporary float whilst I mull things over.
• I've created a jpg image on the left hand side of my blog that illustrates I oppose the new Premium Charge. This may seem petty but I'm sure that Betfair think this issue will blow over so I'm keen to keep reminding people it exists. If you want a copy of the image to display on your own blog/website etc. then leave your email address in the comment section of this post and I'll send it over to you.
• After receiving an invitation to attend the Betfair Academy programme I politely declined. Even though this is something that did interest me, how can I now promote a company that targets winners? The link to Betfair will remain on my link list but only to show the exchange still exists (please note - I don't get any type of commission from that link).
• Created my own little Bollywood spoof movie about the charge. View it here. Just a little bit of light entertainment to accompany the many other spoof movies posted on the Betfair forum.

It's also interesting to learn that the people over at Bet Angel seem equally as disgruntled as me. This is the notice that currently appears when you log-in to use their software:

PREMIUM CHARGES - BET ANGEL CONFERENCE SESSION
We note that despite being lobbied by us and our customers, Betfair have not made any further statements about the new charges. Therefore we have to assume they will come into effect on Monday. If they make no further statements over the weekend we plan to initiate a web conference session with interested users on Monday evening 7PM UK time. During this session we will have an open discussion and lay out our thoughts and plans. The session will be hosted by Peter Webb. Please check back on Monday morning on this page for details of how to join the session.

I'll be joining the session to see what Peter and the team have to say but I'm not too hopeful. I'm guessing that it'll go along the lines that steps have been made to design alternative software but these things will take time etc. If this is the case then it looks as though the exodus to Betdaq may have to be put on hold for the time being.

So that's that, but as some of you may have noticed I haven't posted any results for September yet. I felt that talking about wins/losses was inappropriate given the circumstances so here's a small catch-up:

American Football: £48.94

Cricket: £251.24

Horse Racing: £17.41

Golf: £84.54

Motor Sport: £177.04

Rugby Union: £39.46

Special Bets: £62.39

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Dodging Bullets

Since Last Post P/L: £309.10

Monthly P/L: £1,182.02

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Last Friday turned out to be a great laugh - I just wish I could say the same for the rest of the Bank Holiday weekend.

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On Sunday, Caden was taken ill and admitted to hospital following a bout of diarrhoea, violent vomiting and a soaring temperature. With his heart conditions also a factor, a view was taken that it was better to be safe than sorry so we grabbed our things and got there as quickly we could. Needless to say, the next few hours were pretty horrendous as they had to give him a thorough going over - the poor bugger was still awake at 2.30am as the Doctors tried 8 times to get a blood sample out of him. I've never felt so distressed. It was excruciating to see him in pain and be absolutely powerless to help him. I've always been a bit of a protective type so to subdue my natural instincts I had to keep reminding myself that it was for the best. This wasn't so easy to do on Monday though, as his lack of wet nappies indicated that he was dehydrated - the solution was to have a feeding tube put down through his nose and into his stomach. If the previous night had been bad this was ten times worse. As they began to pass the tube down, his body began to contract and vomit at the same time - it was horrific. He was screaming, Nic was starting to have a panic attack and I didn't have a clue where I was.

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I'm glad to say that after a few minutes things started to get back to normal. Another night of observation followed, but after clear blood test results were received he was discharged on Tuesday. Looking back, I must have come across as being a bit pushy but I'm sure the nurses understand that parents are just worried sick. The thought of him having his heart repair operation is now weighing very heavily on my mind.

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As you can imagine, my trading performance over the last week pales into significance compared to the other stuff that's been going on but for those of you still reading here's the full list of my results:

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Rugby Union

South Africa v Australia : £2.01

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Motor Sport

European Grand Prix : £20.08

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Cricket

Middlesex v Hampshire : £259.17

Gloucestershire v Middlesex : £27.84

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In all honesty, these figures don't tell the whole story.

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On Wednesday, I successfully blew a £250 profit and last night I was staring at a £435 loss on the Somerset v Worcestershire match before a miracle happened.

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What saved me?

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The tie! Can you believe it!?!

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Worcestershire were chasing Somerset's score of 298 and off the last ball required 4 runs to draw the game. Only a boundary would do if I was to escape unharmed and unbelievably that's what happened! I definitely used up one of my nine lives here so I'm planning to have Friday off, take Caden around his grandparents and take Nic out for a curry. I think I've pushed my luck enough for one week.

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MISSING: One Fat Lady

Since Last Post P/L: £594.16

Monthly P/L: £594.16

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Her dulcet tones have been heard a million times, but for some reason, this week she's decided to make herself scarce.

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Felipe Massa was the first victim of her vanishing act. After beating Lewis Hamilton to the first bend of the Hungarian Grand Prix he looked a shoe-in to storm to an unlikely victory, but it was not to be. With only 3 laps to go, his engine failed and he was out of the race. Ouch - with 18k matched at 1.01 there's a few people out there now patching-up the holes in their pockets. Luckily, I wasn't one of them but I remember thinking at the time that those lumping on the cash must have been mental.

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In the Pro40 cricket the twists and turns continued, as Middlesex and Essex both managed to defend low scores when facing Somerset and Northants. The graph below shows the Middlesex price throughout their match and provides a great illustration of why I love trading cricket. The game goes through many peaks and troughs and you don't have to be too concerned with how quickly you can click the mouse button. Not many sports allow you to see a selection open at 1.90, drift to 8.00 and then go on to win!

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It really is amazing how many 'sure things' get turned over, but spotting a real 'cert' from a dud isn't an easy task. This isn't to say I don't think it's possible or profitable, but in my opinion putting your hopes in animals or machines at such low odds is asking for trouble. Odds of 1.05 on Phil Taylor winning a Darts match and odds of 1.05 on 'Dirty Dobbin' winning the Derby just aren't the same in my book :-)

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Here's my results from this week:

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Rugby Union

New Zealand v Australia : £15.77

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Cricket

Middlesex v Somerset : £233.09

Essex v Surrey : £205.39

Warwickshire v Northants : £1.65

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Tennis

Moya v Murray : £23.69

Karlovic v Kohlschreiber : £7.74

Murray v Djokovic : £8.76

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Motor Sport

Hungary Grand Prix : £115.59

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I'm very happy with those figures and with my focus now completely on becoming highly consistent I just want to keep things moving. I'm aware that with Caden due to have his operation at the beginning of October, trading time will be at a minimum so making the most of the summer will be crucial if I'm going to post a decent total for 2008.

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The Olympics also kicks off today and although my knowledge of the various events is limited, it may pay to take a look at the more liquid markets. I'm not pencilling anything in yet but I'll keep my eyes peeled for anything of interest. With the Games guaranteed to generate a lot of media interest, over-hype and national pride may lead to inefficient markets.

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YOU Are Evicted

Since Last Post P/L: £402.31

Monthly P/L: £1123.63

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To be honest, I haven't got a clue how to start this post. It's been a strange week. There's been some highs, some lows and a few non events so I'm at a loss as to which I mention first.

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Okay, let's start with the bad stuff which all stemmed from the events of last Friday night. It was our works Summer Ball and as expected I got quite drunk. Now this hangover business is bad at the best of times but add a newly born baby into the mix and the following day can become an extremely long one indeed. However, Saturday morning started well - after slipping down a few paracetamols to get rid of the headache, 40 minutes later I'd traded the Tri-Nations game between Australia v South Africa for a profit. I should have stopped there as about midday that all too familiar warm, tingly feeling starting to come over me - you know the one - the achy, eye shutting, roll up in a ball sensation that feels like your body's shutting down. So did I do the sensible thing? Of course not - instead I thought it would be a great idea to give the horse racing markets "another go". You'll see from my results below that I lived up to the old adage that a fool and his money are soon parted. It got so ridiculous that by the end of the afternoon I was 'laying' any horse I didn't like the look of!

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Sunday saw the start of my recovery (a combined profit of £0.49 on the Golf and Grand Prix!) but it was from Monday onwards that I started to get back into the swing of things.

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I've mentioned many times on this blog about my desire to get more involved with Tennis and as the ATP Masters Rogers Cup began in Toronto, and with not much else happening, it seemed a good opportunity to take a look. Fortunately, the experience was a pleasant one and even after reducing my stake levels considerably (compared to what I use for Cricket) I was able to make over £50 for around an hours work. The only drawback here is that I see Cricket and Tennis conflicting when it comes to scheduling, so I'll really have to think how I structure my weeks to get the best from both worlds. With Cricket again being my saviour over the last few days there's just no way I can consider dropping the sport from my trading portfolio.

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Here are my full results from the past week:

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Rugby Union

Australia v South Africa : £26.13

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Golf

The Open Championship : £0.44

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Cricket

Durham v Glamorgan : £79.57

Durham v Somerset : £64.56

Glamorgan v Surrey : £294.72

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Motor Sport

German Grand Prix : £0.05

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Tennis

Llodra v Gasquet : £45.79

Canas v Soderling : £13.28

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Horse Racing

Newbury : £99.90

Ripon : £24.67

Market Rasen : £2.05

Yarmouth : £0.29

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So what about this weekend? Well my first involvement is in tonight's Big Brother 6th eviction market. Rebecca, Mohamed and Darnell are the individuals in the mix and after watching the programme regularly I'm convinced that Rebecca's price is a little off. Following last night's programme (she did have a bad show) she was trading at 1.15 and whilst I agree she should be favourite I don't think she'll get 87% of the vote. In the hope that I'm right, I've entered a £200 lay with the view of it being a straight up bet - I'm getting 13/2 that either Mohamed or Darnell will get evicted instead, and I'm happy with those odds.

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Tomorrow then promises to be the best day in the cricketing calendar - it's Twenty20 Cup Finals Day! The Rose Bowl in Southampton is the venue and with 3 matches played in succession it'll be a feast of 4's, 6's, wickets and wonga! Even if you're not a cricket fan it's hard not to enjoy all the razzmatazz.

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But.....before that all happens, myself and Nic are off to Chepstow races tonight with a gang of people from work. It should be a laugh and I won't be taking it too seriously. I've only given myself a £30 betting budget to play with, and as I'll be counting this as 'leisure time' I won't be recording any wins or losses in my results.

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If you're watching on TV, keep an eye out for me, I'll be holding a Betfair umbrella :-)

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Doing The Math

Since Last Post P/L: £500.88
Monthly P/L: £500.88
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The last few days have been challenging. Not so much because of the trading but because I've had to take a good hard look at myself and delve into my past results to see if I can pick out any weaknesses in my methods.
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I mentioned in my last post that I felt that something wasn't right and boy am I glad that I've done this analysis. To start the ball rolling I decided to just go back over my last 3 months profit & loss and review the same statistics that had been mentioned by another blogger (you know who you are!)
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The results were interesting even if they did take a few hours to digest:

• My average win/loss per market : £41.94
• My average win : £102.15
• My average loss : £39.16
• My win % : 57%

Just taking the time to sit down and go through each market has been hugely beneficial with nowhere to hide but the bare facts - it really has been an eye opener! Okay, so what do they mean - what's the big deal? The key thing to remember here is that each of the above are all linked to each other. You can have a great win % but if your average win/loss per market is a negative figure you don't have to be a genius to work out you're losing money etc. From my stats it seems my main strength is cutting my losses quickly as there's quite a big difference in my average win and average loss figures. This is hugely positive and shows that I must be dealing with the psychological aspect of this game pretty well. If I'm looking to pick holes then maybe it's my average win/loss per market. To make a significant and consistent amounts each month this needs to be higher but Rome wasn't built in a day and I'm sure that this number's on an upward curve. Granted, these statistics are only representing my results for a short period of time so I'm now attempting to go a step further. I've already been in touch with Betfair and requested a full list of my settled markets since the 1st January 2007. This will allow me to build a better picture of how well I'm really doing and hopefully help me construct a road map for the rest of the year.

With all of this fresh in my mind I've found it a lot easier to focus over the last few days and it seems to have paid off:

Cricket
Durham v Kent : £170.91
Essex v Yorkshire : £154.96
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Darts
Mardle v Gray : £40.45
Jenkins v McGowan : £0.66
Priestley v Stompe : £1.51
Convery v Klaasen : £21.83
Lewis v Thornton : £28.62
Hamilton v Brenneman : £24.67
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Rugby Union
New Zealand v South Africa : £118.89
Australia v France : £7.61
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Motor Sport
British Grand Prix : £16.87
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On Friday, I was also moved to get involved in the Big Brother 9 winner market. I've not ventured into this area before but after noticing Darnell was a strong joint favourite I felt compelled to shove in a lay at average odds of 3.59. I just can't see him winning and with news that another 3 housemates were going in I was sure his price would drift over the next 9 weeks. At the time of writing he's drifted to 3.80.
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I know, I know, it's a TV show - but if you play it right I'm sure there's plenty of money to be made here. Let's hope I'm right!
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Top Gear

Since Last Post P/L: £449.73
Monthly P/L: £767.22
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After experiencing an initial setback I was able to recover this week and finally managed to ‘build the lead’ that I described in my last post. I’m delighted to have what I would describe as a decent total ‘on the board’ but not everyone is pleased. The comment I had from Nic on Monday said it all – “How can you go from making £2800 in one month to £750 the next?” I could see her point but replied in a flash, “quite easily!”
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That’s one of the problems with this gambling lark – managing expectations. It’s so easy to get ahead of yourself and to start spending the money you’ve yet to earn. Even if you’re able to control those thoughts you then have the issue of reigning in those close to you who are only too eager to start jumping the gun. I keep reminding myself that this is a marathon and not a sprint but now that she’s had a sniff of my winnings I think I’m in trouble – she’s not going to let up!
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Here’s a list of my results for the past week:
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Cricket
Worcestershire v Somerset : £155.59
Lancashire v Yorkshire : £298.78
Northants v Glamorgan : £16.86
Hampshire v Surrey : £28.58
Essex v Sussex : £23.25
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Horse Racing
Redcar : £3.87
Ascot : £0.49
Wolverhampton : £0.08
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Formula 1
French Grand Prix : £217.84
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Tennis
Hewitt v Haase : £15.69
Kanepi v Williams : £0.04
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With Wimbledon underway I decided to dabble into the tennis markets and had a brief but positive experience. Lleyton Hewitt versus Robin Haase was the focus of my attention and with the Australian’s price trading at 1.17 before the start I was quite confident it would trade higher in play. It did. I wasn’t exposing myself to large amounts so gradually traded my way out of my position as his price rose to 1.55 within the first couple of sets. In the end the match went the full five sets which makes me believe that no one except Federer and Nadal can be considered as shoe-ins.
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You’ll also notice that a nice green figure came from the French Grand Prix. Prior to the race, the market made it a two horse race between Raikkonen and Massa due to Ferrari’s dominance. With the Scandinavian trading as a strong 1.50 favourite it didn’t look like he’d have much competition and within a few laps his price had crumbled to 1.28. He was in control and extending his lead – what could possibly go wrong? Thank heavens for a dodgy exhaust. I latched onto the fact that Massa was catching him through each sector pretty quickly, and nudged in a lay for a conservative amount at 1.20. Sure enough, every man and his dog then realised the severity of the situation and within minutes his price had shot out to above 30! I’m gutted that I didn’t lump on the mortgage but I can’t be greedy – there’ll be plenty more opportunities throughout the rest of the Championship and I’ll learn from this.
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I don’t usually like to end my ramblings on a sombre note but I’d like to mention how saddened I was to learn that John Lovell (page 33) the Cardiff bookmaker had died recently. I’d met John a couple of times during some Betfair Education evenings and he seemed like a very likeable guy and a genuine person. My thoughts go to his family at this difficult time.
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The Deal

Since Last Post P/L: £530.66

Monthly P/L: £1326.94

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It seems like a lifetime ago but way back in this post I mentioned that I wouldn't look to make any withdrawals from my Betfair account until I'd accumulated a £10,000 trading bank. As I've now reached this total it's time to take stock and I can't let myself forget how important it's been to have Nicola's support along the way. Without her patience and understanding that I wasn't a drop kick who liked to gamble I wouldn't have been able to make it this far. The hours I've spent glued to the computer whilst she's been alone downstairs have always been accompanied by my shrieks that "I was doing this for us" but I'm not sure she 100% believed me. With this in mind it should therefore not surprise me that she now wants proof. I've hit the long awaited milestone and now she's very keen to cash in her chips and remind me of the deal that we made when I first started this trading odyssey - a monthly % of my winnings!

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What could I do? What woman in their right mind would let their other half gamble as a hobby!?! I was desperate and in a moment of weakness agreed that I would withdraw 50% of any future winnings for our joint use after hitting the target. Naturally, now that I've managed the feat my instinct has been to horde my stash and to renegotiate.

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It wasn't easy - she's a tough nut to crack is Nic - but I'm very pleased to say that we've now mutually agreed to reduce this figure to 20% under the guise that "I need money to make money". I believe this to be the truth but my suggestion of luxury villas and diamond bracelets may have sweetened the deal in my favour.

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Oh bugger....I've gone and done it again....!!!

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My full results for this week have been:

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Darts

Manley v Lewis : £16.73

Mardle v Taylor : £18.15

Van Barneveld v Wade : £29.05

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Motor Sport

Spanish Grand Prix : £0.63

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Cricket

Chennai v Kolkata : £223.69

Bangalore v Rajasthan : £360.37

Punjab v Delhi : £430.10

Mumbai v Deccan : £172.64

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Rugby Union

London Irish v Toulouse : £41.86

Saracens v Munster : £77.40

Heineken Cup - Outright Winner : £11.00

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Some nice big green figures in there but I'm not too happy about some of the large red ones. My cricket trading has been good but I should have been able to control my losses much better so this is something I'm going to have to work on during the course of May.

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Switching subjects - If you've been reading my blog for a while you'll know that until now I've traded part time due to having a full time career. Well, things are changing. My employer has given me the option to reduce my working hours and after a little deliberation (it really wasn't much!) I've decided to try and address the work/life balance. From next week I'll be working 3 days a week (Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday) and hopefully spending the rest of my time either with my family or on Betfair. We're in the fortunate position where we should still have enough to pay the bills so this seems just too good an opportunity to pass up. I may be making a mistake but at certain times in life a door will open and you've just got to walk on through it.

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Throwing It Away

Since Last Post P/L: £43.97
Monthly P/L: £427.19

A busy trading weekend has left me feeling very frustrated. Why? Well, put simply it's because on Saturday and Sunday I let reasonable green figures end in a loss when I knew on both occasions that the right thing to do was turn off the computer and do something else. I think most of us have experienced this feeling before and I'd rank it as one of the worst feelings you can get. If I try and put this loss into perspective then all I have to do is realise that I'm ending the last few days with more money than when I left work on Friday afternoon, but with a quiet week ahead it's going to be a while before I can make up for my mistakes.
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England v West Indies
After the Windies had posted a huge 289 off their 50 overs it could only have been blind optimism from England backers that led to the visitors' price hovering around 1.60 at the change of innings. I could tell the price was screaming "value" and can only regret greening out early. The gain should have been bigger but at the time I was happy with a decent £61.67 profit.
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Desert Classic Darts
My demise over the weekend was down to the darts. I was wasn't feeling confident (maybe down to me not trading it for a while) and it's not the type of sport that you can trade with any trace of hesitancy. To cut a long story short I was gobbled up as I chased losses and cut winning trades short. I should have figured what I was doing sooner but by the time I did it was too late. My results were; Smith v Part £68.75, Barneveld v Scholten £0.29, Manley v Jenkins £84.09, Part v Barneveld £58.46.
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British Grand Prix
All was not lost though, a ray of sunshine did shine during the British Grand Prix. All the pre-race hype focused on the new golden boy Lewis Hamilton but being in pole position didn't mean he was a shoe-in for top place on the podium. As it turned out, he finished third and he even though he may have been disappointed I was very satisfied with how things had gone. A great race to trade with plenty of twists and turns (no pun intended) allowed me to finish with a good gain. Maybe I need to focus on Formula 1 a little more as a Raikkonen victory earned me £105.95.
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Pole Position

Daily P/L: £50.31
Monthly P/L: £194.67

As they say, patience is a virtue. Picking my moments seems to be working but I'll be glad to see the back of May. It's been tough and with the finals of the Premier League Darts tomorrow there's plenty of scope for things to go pear-shaped. I plan to be more cautious than normal as finishing the month in profit makes such a big difference to me. I don't want to ruin all the good work I've done over the past couple of weeks with a few moments of madness.

Today was all about picking up what I could and I'm fairly happy with the results.

Monaco Grand Prix
A lot of the hype this week has been about Lewis Hamilton. The rookie has had a fantastic start to his Formula 1 career and after securing 2nd place on the grid he had a great chance to win his first Grand Prix. Unfortunately, he didn't quite do it but he gave it a fantastic effort and this guy has a big future a head of him if he can keep himself level-headed. I'm still not 100% comfortable in trading this sport but I'm learning things with each race. You have to remember that if you enter a trade and one of the drivers retires (crashes or has technical failure etc.) you could lose a lot of money so this has to be taken into account when determining stake sizes. My profit on the race was £27.02.

Crowne Plaza Invitational
Rain had affected the tournament over the weekend which meant that the players had to finish off their 3rd round before playing the final round today. It was anybody's game going into the final 18 holes as there was a number of players within a couple of shots of the lead but there seemed to be value in opposing Jim Furyk. Jim's a very good player but I don't think he's been quite as clinical this season compared to his normal standards. He was trading in the 3.00 to 5.00 range for most of the round which I felt was a little on the low side. He ended up making a late rally over the closing holes and could have won it in a playoff but fortunately I'd turned off the computer by then. I'm starting to get a better feel for golf again and even though I felt I could have performed better I was still able to make a gain of £23.29 here.

Being Patient

Since Last Post P/L: £3.42
Monthly P/L: £131.51

I've been sitting on my hands since the weekend as I don't want a repeat of getting involved in events I should be leaving well alone. Instead, I've decided to wait until Saturday and just stick with the rugby. It's very important for me to finish the month in profit and if I pick my moments I think I can finish with a healthy result.

Last Sunday I did have a little dabble but as the end result was a bit of washout I've been a little slack in updating the blog. This is what happened:

Spanish Grand Prix
Formula 1 intrigues me. It's not the best spectator sport as only a few drivers normally win but from a trading perspective it appears to have plenty of opportunities. I'll give an example - Massa was in pole position before the race and was trading at around 2.60. A lot had been mentioned about how important it would be to lead at the first bend as there'd be a great chance of opening up a gap quite quickly. Sure enough, Massa managed to hold onto first place (after a brief touch of cars with Alonso) and within a few minutes his price was trading at 1.60 - a full one point swing with less than a few laps completed! Obviously, there's plenty of traders out there who make serious money from this so I'm going to give it more attention as the season progresses. My profit on the race was £32.87.

The Players @ Sawgrass
I'm still struggling to find the golf form which gave me a lot of confidence last year. I'm not keen on backing players during the 4th round of any tournament and even though Phil Mickelson maneuvered himself into a very strong position within the first couple of holes I was always looking for things to move against him. My belief was that the tough course would make things difficult for him at some point but this didn't happen and in the end he sealed a comfortable victory. There's not many close to Tiger's standard but Phil is one of the contenders. I decided to take a loss of £29.45 so that I could still show a green figure for the day.
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