Artificial Intelligence

Since Last Update P/L: £2.10
Monthly P/L: £1,007.43

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It's funny what you can find by trawling through the recesses of unused folders on your hard drive. Yesterday I stumbled upon one of those forgotten files - a Classic IQ Test that I'd taken when visiting the old Tickle site a couple of years ago.

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I wouldn't have described myself as a 'Visual Mathematician' previously, but after re-reading my results a lot of things seem to make sense:

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"You have a strong ability to process visual-spatial and mathematical information. These skills combined with your strengths in logic are what make you a Visual Mathematician.

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You're able to understand patterns visually and in numbers. That means your mind can create a mental picture for any problem. In addition to that skill, you possess an intelligence that allows you to apply maths to that picture, too. That helps you manipulate multiple parts of the picture (or problem) to come up with a solution.

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You have many skills that are critical to success and problem-solving. Your talents help you understand the "big picture," which is partly why people may turn to you for direction -- especially in the workplace. You flourish in environments where tasks are clearly defined, and you excel at improving processes and making things more efficient. Like Einstein, your ability to detect patterns and your skills in maths and logic, make it natural for you to come up with ideas and theories that simplify processes for everyone."

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All job offers and public appearances considered - LOL! Seriously though, is it my ability to recognise patterns that make me well suited to trading? It seems a reasonable explanation, and as I'm also a Project Manager I'm glad to see that improving processes and making things more efficient should be one of my strengths.

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Now, back to the usual stuff...

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Trading has been slow over the last week and as I haven't been feeling too clever I decided to close the book on February to secure a profit of over a thousand pounds for the month. Achieving little milestones like that (especially in my off season) are important to me and allow me a pat on the back before concentrating on new challenges ahead. As it won't be long before I'm over-whelmed with a number of events to trade, this small break has been more than welcome.

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Mr. Plod (my adopting name for the 'PC' - get it?) has continued to rear his ugly head so the losses on soccer and horse racing mentioned below are mainly my attempts at trying to duck the deductions. Here's my final results for February:

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Darts : £66.10

Horse Racing : £4.06

Rugby Union : £14.48

Soccer : £18.87

Premium Charge : £59.75

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Elsewhere, rumours are rife on the forums regarding Betfair's latest intentions. Allegedly, they are due to release a new product called 'Mini Games' very soon. Not content with enticing people via the casino and arcade, they are now internallly testing a product which will add fruit machines to your betting slip! So where you see Place Bet, My Bets, Rules & Help, you will also now see 'Mini Games' - just in case you were so addicted to losing money that you can't get a fix for another three minutes to the next race! I'll let you decide the ethics behind this one but it seems so bizarre how a company can change it's corporate strategy so quickly and purposefully turn full circle on it's loyal customers. Of course, this could all be 'hear say' but I wouldn't bet against it. If it does happen, then in my opinion Betfair must be struggling to fund their worldwide expansion.

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Rewind?

Since Last Update P/L: £132.77
Monthly P/L: £763.74

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A question I've been asking myself recently is, "If I rewound the clock and only had £250 available to me, would I start this trading journey all over again?"

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At this point I could just give you a quick answer, but let me pause for a moment to consider where I was then, and if I can, recall what my aims were at the time.

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Gaining a steady income from gambling had long been a dream and I was getting fed up of winning, losing and then repeating the cycle for a small profit. It seemed as though I'd explored every system and I was a whisker away from declaring that it wasn't possible to make money (at least a reasonable amount) from this game. Then the 'Eureka' moment came when I realised that I didn't have to predict who would win a contest but just what would happen next. Whether this was during the next 30 minutes or 30 seconds didn't matter, as long as I called it right more often than not.

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This saw a huge shift in my outlook and after spending some brief time putting together some strategies everything started to fall into place. I remember thinking at the time, "Why haven't I thought of this before?"

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Over the next few months my initial feelings were proved correct and my extremely modest bankroll began to grow....quickly. Suddenly, everything felt possible and I could see a huge opportunity in front of me. How could I let it pass me by? Even though my gains were quite small at the time I always had a plan for where I was heading. By re-investing my winnings I'd be able to place bigger trades and make bigger profits - right?

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To a degree this is how it's worked out, but it hasn't been easy. Sacrifices have been made as Nic will testify, but I feel it's been worth it as I'm continuing to make progress. However, I'm by no means at the destination yet. The carrot is still dangling in my front of my face and the window of opportunity is yet to close, but to answer my initial question, "Would I do it all again?"

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Probably not. The Betfair Premium Charge has ended dreams before they've begun and with only a small amount of cash in my back pocket, I probably wouldn't have bothered putting in all the hard work. Unfortunately, I'm guessing that those of you reading this who are where I was then, will feel the same.

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My recent results:

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Cricket : £114.29

Horse Racing : £18.48

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Losing It

Since Last Post P/L: £630.97

Monthly P/L: £630.97

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Caden has suffered from a bout of sickness and diarrhoea this week so with looking after him, fighting the snow and coping with the launch of a new product in work it's surprising I've been able to make any profit at all!

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Following a nice win on the 1st ODI International between Australia and New Zealand I decided that I needed to investigate ways of lessening the Premium Charge burden. My initial thoughts were to put together a horse laying system that over a period of time returned a break even p&l with an even percentage of winners of losers. My first foray into this strategy ended in a small loss of £28.43 (which is more than I would have paid in terms of PC) but it's not an approach that can be judged on one day so I won't fret just yet. It is a sad state of affairs though when you have to consider how to lose in order to keep hold of profit.

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With 'losing' firmly in my mindset I then thought to myself, "Hey, what the heck, why not take another look at Tennis?" and proceeded to spend a good few hours going through some simulated scenarios. Although the Movistar Open currently being held in Chile isn't Wimbledon, it served it's purpose and provided some enlightening moments. Although I'm still paying for my education I'm beginning to see some light at the end of the tunnel.

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Here's a round-up of my results for February:

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American Football : £12.60

Cricket : £434.79

Darts : £94.10

Horse Racing : £28.43

Rugby Union : £249.35

Tennis : £53.82

Premium Charge : £77.62

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A Premium Pressie

Since Last Update P/L: £333.97

Monthly P/L: £831.48

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It had to happen sooner or later. Last Wednesday saw me incur my first Betfair Premium charge and even though I thought I'd prepared myself, it still left a sour taste in the mouth. I know it's only £15 but when there are no tools/warnings to help predict what this charge will be then it's very difficult to budget for. Being a successful trader/punter is all about control. From stake sizes to discipline it's all part of the big picture, so not having a clue how much Betfair will take at the end of the week tends to go against the grain of things. With this week providing a decent profit, I've got a funny feeling that the size of my gifts are about to start getting bigger.

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Okay, rant over.

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Here are my latest results:

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American Football : £119.79

Cricket : £21.46

Greyhound Racing : £10.22

Horse Racing : £2.88

Rugby Union : £195.55

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Premium Charge : £15.93

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The NFL playoffs have so far provided a mix bag. I've been able to make surprisingly good amounts on trading individual matches but a lot of my picks for the big prize have fallen by the wayside. My top seeds Pittsburgh will now have to deliver if I'm to finish the Superbowl Winner market in profit.

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What about the rest? The 2nd ODI International between Australia and South Africa was fun to trade and helped me get back into the swing of things but once more I made too many wrong decisions. That's the beauty of cricket though - you get so many opportunities to put things right.

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The Heineken Cup has been great entertainment (how good were Cardiff?) and my mouth is now watering at the prospect of the Six Nations. From a Welsh perspective I'm confident of another good show but I wouldn't be backing them at 15/8 for the Championship. Scotland will be a tough opener and a lot rides on that first result.

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Best not to ask about the Horse and Greyhound Racing ;-)

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Caught Out

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Since Last Update P/L: £306.13
Monthly P/L: £497.51

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We've all played Monopoly and we've all been saved by the 'Get Out Of Jail Free' card. Up until Sunday morning I'd forgotten how sweet that feeling was.

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Yet again, I'm kicking myself as I should know better. Twenty 20 Cricket is a high octane event and whilst I'd call it my specialised subject, I'm prone to forgetting that it takes time to adjust to the speed of the game - especially after not trading it for a while. So it shouldn't really surprise me that this is exactly what happened when I settled down to watch the Aussies take on the South Africans over the weekend. After being extremely hasty to get involved I was licking my wounds at the turn of innings and staring at a near maximum loss. It was time to steady the ship and fortunately after playing things tight I was able to recoup most of the deficit. Not an ideal way to start the season! However, I do find it comforting to know that even when I get multiple decisions wrong, I'm still able to make just a small loss. The ability to do this when things aren't going my way ends up saving me a hell of a lot of money over the course of a year and it keeps on reminding me that if I can keep to big wins, small wins and small losses I'll end up being a pretty successful trader.

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Which leads me onto my next subject - Million Dollar Traders. The idea for the TV Programme that was screened on BBC 2 last night is similar to that described in the book, 'The Way Of The Turtle'. Give ordinary people some money, teach them to trade and watch them succeed. At least that's the idea, but any of you who caught the first show last night will vouch that it didn't look that simple! What made me laugh was how similar the experiences of the novices on the show were to when I started on Betfair. I'm sure many of you recognised the weaknesses; lack of discipline, too much emotion, hesitancy, bad timing, over analysis, reluctance to trade, laziness etc. The list goes on. All good entertainment and it'll be interesting to see how the volunteers fare in the coming weeks. One not to miss, and if I'm truthful I'm a little envious that I missed out on giving this show a go :-)

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One last question. I've been a big fan of the Bet Angel team since becoming a customer of theirs over two years ago, and have always been inspired when I watch any of Peter Webb's trading videos. So after reading various new blogs where the authors mention that they've attending Peter's trading course, I now believe the time has come to make a decision on whether I'm serious about trading Horse Racing. Progress on my own systems has been slow so perhaps it's time to gather some insight? This is where I need your advice. If you've attended Peter's course previously then please leave me a comment and let me know if you think it will be suitable to my style. All the testimonials on the site look good (as you'd expect) but for £400 I'd like some independent advice before moving ahead.

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Any help would be appreciated ;-)

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Here's my full list of latest results:

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American Football : £265.19

Cricket : £33.18

Horse Racing : £18.60

Rugby Union : £55.00

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Miracles Do Happen

Since Last Post P/L: £412.68

Monthly P/L: £412.68

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The last few weeks have been hugely demanding and extremely stressful but I’m very happy to report that Caden has had his heart repair surgery and is now on the road to recovery. However, there’ve been many highs and lows and I wouldn’t wish an experience like this on my worst enemy.
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To begin with we were told the night before the operation that due to a lack of beds within intensive care, the operation would need to be postponed with there likely to be a 1-2 week delay. After travelling to Bristol you can imagine our despair – his condition was becoming more noticeable and we were now ready, we needed this to happen.
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Fortunately the surgeon could see our determination and agreed for us to stay at the hospital in the unlikely event that a slot became available. Luckily for us one did and the operation took place on the 20th November. For what seemed like the longest 5 hours we lulled around shopping centres and restaurants waiting for the phone call telling us everything was okay and when we were told that everything was over we all shared a huge sigh of relief. Apparently he had suffered 2 : 1 Heart Block when coming out of theatre but this was something they were able to treat quickly and in general things had gone well.

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It was at this point I thought the worst was over. What I hadn’t considered was the possibility of any setbacks.
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The first day after the operation went to plan but when he started to show signs of deterioration on the second day panic started to set in. It turned out that fluid had started to collect around his heart and lungs and that another operation would be needed to drain what was there. The risks weren’t as great but I still had to sign the consent form and whenever that happens there’s always an element of doubt. A stark reminder of this was the 6 month year old boy in the next bed. He’d been admitted for a similar heart operation but following complications during the procedure he’d suffered a lack of oxygen to the brain. Unfortunately there was no way back and he passed away whilst we were there.
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With these thoughts fresh in the memory it was practically impossible to remain completely calm but I shouldn’t have worried as he sailed through. Even though this complication did set him back he started to show signs of improvement pretty quickly afterwards and within a few days he was fully conscious and trying to become more mobile. He was discharged a week later but within 48 hours were back in hospital. His temperature was spiking for no apparent reason and with the risk of infection high on the radar the doctors wanted to be safe rather than sorry.
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That worry has now died down and since then he’s been gradually on the mend. As of today the progress he’s made completely astounds me. He’s nearly back to being normal and if any of you reading this want proof of a living miracle then you’re welcome to visit :-) The little guy’s been through so much we’re now going to make sure he has the best ever first Christmas!
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At this point of my post I’d love to be able lift the mood but unfortunately I can’t as I was deeply saddened this week to read of the passing of Richard Wildman. Richard was a fellow blogger who fought a courageous battle against cancer throughout 2008 before finally succumbing on the 5th December. If medals were awarded for having a ‘positive outlook’ then Richard would have been at the front of queue as anyone who has read his posts would testify. At the age of 36 he leaves behind a wife and two children and my thoughts are with them at this desperately tough time.
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What I’ve mentioned above really does highlight how precious our time is in this life and this is something I need to make sure stays fresh in my mind. If in future I ever take Caden or any of my family for granted I need to stop, take stock and think about how much others who are less fortunate would love to swap places.
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For what it’s worth I’ve now also been able to start trading again. The Heineken Cup Rugby has been the main focus of my attention and here’s my full results for the month so far:
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American Football : £95.91
Horse Racing : £25.55
Rugby Union : £368.55
Special Bets : £8.26
Poker : £34.49
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The highlight of December always seems to be the PDC Darts World Championship and this year appears to be no exception. Things kickoff on Friday and even though Phil Taylor has had a phenomenal year I’m not sure if the tournament being hosted at Alexandra Palace suits him. The Circus Tavern was his territory but last year he looked a little lost in the new surroundings so it’s difficult for me to get too excited about his chances when his odds are hovering around the 1.60 mark. He’ll surely reach the latter stages but I’d be surprised if you aren’t able to get better odds at some point along the line.
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Either way, the 13 days of competition will determine how I finish the year – will I be a ‘star’ or a ‘turkey’?
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Thanks again to everyone who’s left supportive messages during the past few weeks – they meant a great deal.
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Merry Christmas to you all.
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Mark

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The Big One

Since Last Post P/L: £110.66
Monthly P/L: £421.51

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I'd been hoping for a quiet week but an 8 month old baby had other ideas! Caden decided last Tuesday to get himself another infection and this unfortunately hit him harder than before. His oxygen saturation levels weren't good so it was back to the hospital for a very stressful 3 nights and it was only after the Doctors declared that his temperature was back under control that we were allowed to come home on Friday evening. With his full heart repair operation scheduled for Wednesday the worry was that any deterioration in his condition would force it to be delayed and in extreme circumstances this could be for up to another 6 weeks. With his 'tet spells' becoming more regular this is something we clearly want to avoid so it's sods law that Nicola woke up with a cold on Saturday morning! She's now been banned from going anywhere near him :-)

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So this is it - the big one. As a natural control freak this feeling of uselessness isn't resting comfortably on my shoulders and with there little left for me to do, I'm now resigned to the events that lay ahead. The statistics are in our favour but I'm very nervous - I just want my little boy to be okay.

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With all of this going on I've only been able to to take a quick look at a few events over the weekend. There've been some topsy turvey results and if I hadn't taken a look at the NFL last night I'd have saved myself £80.

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American Football : £63.94

Horse Racing : £4.26

Rugby Union : £175.42

Soccer : £0.36

Poker : £5.44

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Nevermind, other things are way more important and all of my attention now turns to what looks to be a hugely challenging few weeks. Hopefully life will start to return to normal come the beginning of December and I'll be able to let out a huge sigh of relief.

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As I'm not likely to be around for a while, many thanks in advance for all the best wishes we may receive - they are a source of strength and we are hugely grateful.

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Juggling Priorities

Since Last Post P/L: £310.85
Monthly P/L: £310.85
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Before now I've often been guilty of forgetting the contents of my previous post so with this in mind I'll get the bit about my head out of the way. The staples came out last Monday and if I do say so myself I was very brave (ha!) and all that remains is a chunky scar which should at least serve as a reminder on not to be such an idiot in future! Of course, despite this mental note I maintain that my mate was to blame :-)
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My trading involvement has been relatively quiet so it's given me a chance to catch up on some reading. 'Reminiscences of A Stock Operator' was one title missing from my collection and with it being regarded as one of the best I was starting to feel a bit like a fraud for not having given it a look previously. I haven't finished it yet so I won't give a full review but my initial impressions are that if you can get past the way the book is written (it was 80 years ago and wordings have changed) there are some hidden gems on how to look at the bigger picture. It seems that the big money is to be made in the big swings and this is not something I've given my full focus to before. I've often looked to just the short term and whether that's for 1 minute, 10 or 20 maybe I haven't fully considered the conditions of the markets I've been active in. Plenty of food for thought there.
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Where possible I've continued to try and lend Betdaq my business - it hasn't been easy but the graphic below will help illustrate that generating decent sized profits on some in-play markets is possible. I went on to lose a bit of this cash but that doesn't matter ;-)
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What about the rest? Well, the Stanford Superstars giving England a whooping did make me chuckle. Everyone at the ECB got what they deserved in my eyes, and I'm sure they're regretting the decision to get involved with the whole thing now. It was very embarrassing. People have made comparisons regarding the sums of money available to that in football but until now there's never been a situation where Chelsea have been pitched to play Arsenal for $20 million in a one off match. No, although I enjoyed the spectacle, the Stanford match represented greed and for that reason it left a sour taste in the mouth. Not sure my comments mean much though as it also netted me a profit!
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Anyway, here are my full results for the beginning of November:
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Cricket
Stanford Superstars v England : £169.86
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American Football
Green Bay @ Tennessee : £80.35
Dallas @ New York Giants : £48.33
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Horse Racing
Wolverhamption : £8.27
Plumpton : £9.47
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Soccer
Newcastle v Aston Villa : £9.58
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Rugby Union
Australia v New Zealand : £18.99
Scotland v New Zealand : £117.30
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Elsewhere, we've been given the date of the 19th November for Caden's full heart repair operation. This date has already been pushed back once so it's possible it could happen again but if everything goes to plan then the blog and my trading activity are likely to be put on hold come the end of the month. We're now at the stage where we just want to get the operation out of the way so that we can look forward to our first family Christmas.
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Just Ahead

Since Last Post P/L: £302.07

Monthly P/L: £231.70

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The experimenting has continued and it must be due to this and the fact that I've used Betdaq wherever possible, that I've managed to avoid the dreaded Betfair Premium tax. Over the last couple of weeks I've dipped my toes into practically everything with Test Match Cricket, Greyhound Racing and Poker all seeing some action but it was from following John's advice that I decided to give creating my own Bot a go by using BetBotPro.

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The early signs were good - for little effort I was making £30 to £40 a day but it wasn't long before a string of events shook me out of my comfort zone. I'd made some calculations and knew the probability of incurring lengthy losing streaks but even I didn't expect to lay 4 consecutive winners at average odds of 7.40 within the first few days of trialling a recovery staking system!

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It took quite a lot of stupidity for me to risk losing £800+ on the fifth selection - a dog running at Crayford! He made me sweat too as the bloody pooch led for 3 bends before eventually tailing off. William Hill Radio is a great service to catch commentary but I'm not sure if listening to the race helped on this occasion! I haven't given up on the idea of automating some of my betting but let's just say my enthusiasm has cooled for the time being :-)

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Here's a full round-up of my latest results:

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American Football : £22.58

Cricket: £134.99

Greyhound Racing : £137.55

Horse Racing : £77.45

Poker : £23.60

Rugby Union : £108.00

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The Stanford Super Series is the only serious stuff I intend to get involved with for the rest of the month and it'll be interesting to see if England choke under the pressure. Will the huge amount of money on offer make a difference? I have a feeling it will and if I'm right expect some very volatile in-play markets.

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In The Lab

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Since Last Post P/L: £70.37
Monthly P/L: £70.37

After all the recent events and with expected quiet periods around the corner, necessity has demanded that I start looking at additional ways of generating a profit. American Football & Horse Racing were likely candidates but my efforts so far have drawn a blank and it’s clear my strategies need to be reviewed. However, there is a glimmer of hope. Online poker is now so accessible that I’m beginning to think just maybe I can turnover a small consistent revenue stream from playing cash games.

This could be a silly idea but I’ve played the game on and off now for the last few years and I seem to be getting a little better. Maybe it’s time to make a serious effort and approach the game in the same way as my trading? With decisions needing to be made constantly I’m expecting my discipline to be severely tested but the early signs are promising and if I set aside a small starting bank then I won’t be risking the world if things go tits-up. A mate of mine recently appeared on the TV show 'How To Become A Poker Millionaire' and this got me thinking - now what did someone once tell me about big things being possible from small beginnings?

Here’s a list of my losses for the month so far :-) :

Poker : £12.24

Horse Racing : £3.55

American Football : £79.06

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Wind Of Change

Since Last Post P/L: £319.53

Monthly P/L: £867.85

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If you want to blog interactively, open this in another window.

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Unsettled Betfair customers will never have a better excuse to explore other options. The Premium Charge fiasco has rumbled on over the last week and now that the gate has been left open the question remains, "how many will walk through?" As many have said, the barriers preventing people from moving elsewhere are slowly coming down and I still can't believe that Betfair have remained silent on the issue. Heads seem firmly buried in the sand at Betfair Towers and short term thinking now seems to have clouded a once visionary company. With news circulating that Bet Angel are due to release API software for Betdaq within days, the time has come for us to join the exodus. Already websites are popping up to protest at the shoddy treatment and it should be of no surprise that the Betfair forum has gone into meltdown since the first debits were taken from qualifying accounts yesterday afternoon. The whole affair reminds me of what we often do in Wales when it comes to rugby - shoot ourselves in the foot.

So what have I been doing whilst this this has all been going on? Well, my strategy over recent days has been to do very little (apart from withdrawing another £2242 from my Betfair account) and to wait for the dust to settle. The incentive to trial systems on markets where I have little or no edge has gone, as the prospect of getting charged if I get 'lucky' doesn't appeal. However, fortunately for me, October and November are expected quiet months so I can afford to stand back and wait a while but once Betdaq becomes a real option, Betfair will become an expensive second option in my eyes. Bad feelings take a long time to dissolve.

Here's my final results for September:

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Cricket

Glamorgan v Worcestershire : £378.00

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American Football

San Francisco @ New Orleans : £3.52

Carolina @ Minnesota : £12.82

Arizona @ Washington : £21.46

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Golf

Ryder Cup 2008 - Winner : £7.71

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Horse Racing

Ascot : £20.00

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In case you haven't already read them, here are a few recent stories in the media regarding the ongoing situation:

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Business As Usual For Betfair Backers Hit By Charges

Betfair Provides a Lesson In Customer Alienation

Betfair Faces Criticism For Massive Rise In Charges

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Out Of Sorts

Since Last Post P/L: £548.32
Monthly P/L: £548.32

With all this uncertainty surrounding the new Betfair Premium charge it should of no surprise to learn that my trading over the last few weeks has been erratic. Yep, I've made a profit but my actions have been undisciplined and my results far too inconsistent. It seems that whenever change occurs in my life the same pattern emerges as exactly the same thing happened when my son was born in March. Maybe it's not just Betfair that find managing change difficult after all?!?

As today signals the last day of Premium Charge freedom I should now be in a position of clarity but if I'm honest I still haven't figured out what my next actions are going to be. Of course, there are a list of options; increase my stakes, explore Betdaq, dabble with spread betting etc. but I'm keen not to rush in and get my fingers burned (act in haste and repent at leisure and all that).

I still feel victimised though so this hasn't stopped me from taking a few steps to show my disapproval:

• I withdrew £2242 from my Betfair account earlier in the week. Not allowing Betfair to make a few pennies in interest has given me some satisfaction but I've left enough in there to act as a temporary float whilst I mull things over.
• I've created a jpg image on the left hand side of my blog that illustrates I oppose the new Premium Charge. This may seem petty but I'm sure that Betfair think this issue will blow over so I'm keen to keep reminding people it exists. If you want a copy of the image to display on your own blog/website etc. then leave your email address in the comment section of this post and I'll send it over to you.
• After receiving an invitation to attend the Betfair Academy programme I politely declined. Even though this is something that did interest me, how can I now promote a company that targets winners? The link to Betfair will remain on my link list but only to show the exchange still exists (please note - I don't get any type of commission from that link).
• Created my own little Bollywood spoof movie about the charge. View it here. Just a little bit of light entertainment to accompany the many other spoof movies posted on the Betfair forum.

It's also interesting to learn that the people over at Bet Angel seem equally as disgruntled as me. This is the notice that currently appears when you log-in to use their software:

PREMIUM CHARGES - BET ANGEL CONFERENCE SESSION
We note that despite being lobbied by us and our customers, Betfair have not made any further statements about the new charges. Therefore we have to assume they will come into effect on Monday. If they make no further statements over the weekend we plan to initiate a web conference session with interested users on Monday evening 7PM UK time. During this session we will have an open discussion and lay out our thoughts and plans. The session will be hosted by Peter Webb. Please check back on Monday morning on this page for details of how to join the session.

I'll be joining the session to see what Peter and the team have to say but I'm not too hopeful. I'm guessing that it'll go along the lines that steps have been made to design alternative software but these things will take time etc. If this is the case then it looks as though the exodus to Betdaq may have to be put on hold for the time being.

So that's that, but as some of you may have noticed I haven't posted any results for September yet. I felt that talking about wins/losses was inappropriate given the circumstances so here's a small catch-up:

American Football: £48.94

Cricket: £251.24

Horse Racing: £17.41

Golf: £84.54

Motor Sport: £177.04

Rugby Union: £39.46

Special Bets: £62.39

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The Grinder

Blue :2008

Pink : 2007

Orange : 2006

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Since Last Post P/L: £85.15
Monthly P/L: £1,267.17

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It's been a steady if unspectacular end to August but it's left me with a decent return for the month. I was hoping to do better but the important thing for me now is to remember how my results this year compare to where I was 12 months ago. Growth is the name of the game and if I can continue to earn more than the equivalent month in 2007 then I'm continuing down the right track. However, my mind has been wandering lately though so I'm aware I need to buck up my ideas. This could be easier said than done as September now looks a bit bare after the Champions Trophy cricket tournament being postponed and the ever unpredictable British weather threatening to wash out any scheduled cricket. With my trading portfolio now relying so heavily on the bat and willow I'm once again feeling anxious that my good form won't continue as I'm forced to explore sports I'm less familiar with. To this end I'm going to make a concerted effort this year to make the NFL pay and just hope that these weekly match-ups can keep me ticking over until February.

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Here's my latest results:

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Cricket

Worcestershire v Gloucestershire : £77.87

England v South Africa - 4th ODI : £3.33

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Rugby Union

South Africa v Australia : £26.04

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Horse Racing

Barth : £16.03

Market Rasen : £1.88

Ripon : £2.00

Chester : £0.12

Sandown : £0.43

Newton Abbott : £0.92

Chester: £4.47

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As you can see, the Horse Racing trading still continues to fail!

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On a much brighter note, Caden has recovered well from last weeks escapade much to Mam and Dad's relief, so many thanks to all those who gave their best wishes :-)

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Vegetating

Since Last Post P/L: £93.29
Monthly P/L: £872.92

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I'm going to try and keep this short for two reasons - it's been another quiet week and because I have to get ready to go out on an all day session :-)

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Being given a day-pass from Nic doesn't happen very often so I intend to make the most of it!

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So what have I been up to? Well, not a lot. I really haven't had the time to get involved in the Olympics and jumping in without getting a feel for the events is something I've been reluctant to do. Instead, I've tried to stick to the tried and tested but even then things haven't gone my way.

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Last night for example I'd forged an all green £50 position in the Pro40 game between Derbyshire and Yorkshire. As I wasn't feeling 100%, I decided to finish earlier than normal and whereas I'd normally take out some insurance against the tie I decided not to bother. What happened next? Yep, low and behold both teams finished on 213 runs and I woke up this morning with a Betfair account balance the same size as it was yesterday. It's very frustrating when that happens, especially as I've wasted quite a bit of my profits covering the tie on previous matches this year.

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On Wednesday I also decided to follow one of Graeme's picks as it seemed a good opportunity to pick up an in-running profit. The selection was 'Icannshift' and whilst I agreed that the price of 7.80 was a little short, I was confident it would trade lower than during the race as it was a proven front runner. I backed the horse before the off and submitted a lay at odds of 4.00 to be kept in-play but although the horse led at one point I didn't get matched. No luck this time but that won't put me off following Graeme's thoughts in future - take a look for yourself and visit his blog over at the 'The Experiment'.

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My involvement in the Big Brother market has also come to an end and the final picture now looks like the screenshot I've included below. My thoughts on Darnell have changed during the last few weeks. He's not my preferred winner but the British public might just see him as the best of a bad bunch and I could end up with just a £14 profit.

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Here's a full list(!) of my latest results:
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Rugby Union
New Zealand v South Africa : £53.84
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Cricket
Essex v Kent : £16.95
Nottinghamshire v Durham : £47.50
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Horse Racing
Folkestone : £25.00
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On a more positive note, things should change a bit next week as there's Cricket on almost every day and the US Open starts. The latter should provide me with the chance to further my Tennis education and hopefully not lose too much money!
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Right....now where's that first beer......
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YOU Are Evicted

Since Last Post P/L: £402.31

Monthly P/L: £1123.63

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To be honest, I haven't got a clue how to start this post. It's been a strange week. There's been some highs, some lows and a few non events so I'm at a loss as to which I mention first.

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Okay, let's start with the bad stuff which all stemmed from the events of last Friday night. It was our works Summer Ball and as expected I got quite drunk. Now this hangover business is bad at the best of times but add a newly born baby into the mix and the following day can become an extremely long one indeed. However, Saturday morning started well - after slipping down a few paracetamols to get rid of the headache, 40 minutes later I'd traded the Tri-Nations game between Australia v South Africa for a profit. I should have stopped there as about midday that all too familiar warm, tingly feeling starting to come over me - you know the one - the achy, eye shutting, roll up in a ball sensation that feels like your body's shutting down. So did I do the sensible thing? Of course not - instead I thought it would be a great idea to give the horse racing markets "another go". You'll see from my results below that I lived up to the old adage that a fool and his money are soon parted. It got so ridiculous that by the end of the afternoon I was 'laying' any horse I didn't like the look of!

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Sunday saw the start of my recovery (a combined profit of £0.49 on the Golf and Grand Prix!) but it was from Monday onwards that I started to get back into the swing of things.

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I've mentioned many times on this blog about my desire to get more involved with Tennis and as the ATP Masters Rogers Cup began in Toronto, and with not much else happening, it seemed a good opportunity to take a look. Fortunately, the experience was a pleasant one and even after reducing my stake levels considerably (compared to what I use for Cricket) I was able to make over £50 for around an hours work. The only drawback here is that I see Cricket and Tennis conflicting when it comes to scheduling, so I'll really have to think how I structure my weeks to get the best from both worlds. With Cricket again being my saviour over the last few days there's just no way I can consider dropping the sport from my trading portfolio.

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Here are my full results from the past week:

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Rugby Union

Australia v South Africa : £26.13

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Golf

The Open Championship : £0.44

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Cricket

Durham v Glamorgan : £79.57

Durham v Somerset : £64.56

Glamorgan v Surrey : £294.72

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Motor Sport

German Grand Prix : £0.05

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Tennis

Llodra v Gasquet : £45.79

Canas v Soderling : £13.28

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Horse Racing

Newbury : £99.90

Ripon : £24.67

Market Rasen : £2.05

Yarmouth : £0.29

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So what about this weekend? Well my first involvement is in tonight's Big Brother 6th eviction market. Rebecca, Mohamed and Darnell are the individuals in the mix and after watching the programme regularly I'm convinced that Rebecca's price is a little off. Following last night's programme (she did have a bad show) she was trading at 1.15 and whilst I agree she should be favourite I don't think she'll get 87% of the vote. In the hope that I'm right, I've entered a £200 lay with the view of it being a straight up bet - I'm getting 13/2 that either Mohamed or Darnell will get evicted instead, and I'm happy with those odds.

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Tomorrow then promises to be the best day in the cricketing calendar - it's Twenty20 Cup Finals Day! The Rose Bowl in Southampton is the venue and with 3 matches played in succession it'll be a feast of 4's, 6's, wickets and wonga! Even if you're not a cricket fan it's hard not to enjoy all the razzmatazz.

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But.....before that all happens, myself and Nic are off to Chepstow races tonight with a gang of people from work. It should be a laugh and I won't be taking it too seriously. I've only given myself a £30 betting budget to play with, and as I'll be counting this as 'leisure time' I won't be recording any wins or losses in my results.

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If you're watching on TV, keep an eye out for me, I'll be holding a Betfair umbrella :-)

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Top Gear

Since Last Post P/L: £449.73
Monthly P/L: £767.22
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After experiencing an initial setback I was able to recover this week and finally managed to ‘build the lead’ that I described in my last post. I’m delighted to have what I would describe as a decent total ‘on the board’ but not everyone is pleased. The comment I had from Nic on Monday said it all – “How can you go from making £2800 in one month to £750 the next?” I could see her point but replied in a flash, “quite easily!”
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That’s one of the problems with this gambling lark – managing expectations. It’s so easy to get ahead of yourself and to start spending the money you’ve yet to earn. Even if you’re able to control those thoughts you then have the issue of reigning in those close to you who are only too eager to start jumping the gun. I keep reminding myself that this is a marathon and not a sprint but now that she’s had a sniff of my winnings I think I’m in trouble – she’s not going to let up!
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Here’s a list of my results for the past week:
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Cricket
Worcestershire v Somerset : £155.59
Lancashire v Yorkshire : £298.78
Northants v Glamorgan : £16.86
Hampshire v Surrey : £28.58
Essex v Sussex : £23.25
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Horse Racing
Redcar : £3.87
Ascot : £0.49
Wolverhampton : £0.08
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Formula 1
French Grand Prix : £217.84
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Tennis
Hewitt v Haase : £15.69
Kanepi v Williams : £0.04
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With Wimbledon underway I decided to dabble into the tennis markets and had a brief but positive experience. Lleyton Hewitt versus Robin Haase was the focus of my attention and with the Australian’s price trading at 1.17 before the start I was quite confident it would trade higher in play. It did. I wasn’t exposing myself to large amounts so gradually traded my way out of my position as his price rose to 1.55 within the first couple of sets. In the end the match went the full five sets which makes me believe that no one except Federer and Nadal can be considered as shoe-ins.
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You’ll also notice that a nice green figure came from the French Grand Prix. Prior to the race, the market made it a two horse race between Raikkonen and Massa due to Ferrari’s dominance. With the Scandinavian trading as a strong 1.50 favourite it didn’t look like he’d have much competition and within a few laps his price had crumbled to 1.28. He was in control and extending his lead – what could possibly go wrong? Thank heavens for a dodgy exhaust. I latched onto the fact that Massa was catching him through each sector pretty quickly, and nudged in a lay for a conservative amount at 1.20. Sure enough, every man and his dog then realised the severity of the situation and within minutes his price had shot out to above 30! I’m gutted that I didn’t lump on the mortgage but I can’t be greedy – there’ll be plenty more opportunities throughout the rest of the Championship and I’ll learn from this.
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I don’t usually like to end my ramblings on a sombre note but I’d like to mention how saddened I was to learn that John Lovell (page 33) the Cardiff bookmaker had died recently. I’d met John a couple of times during some Betfair Education evenings and he seemed like a very likeable guy and a genuine person. My thoughts go to his family at this difficult time.
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