Team Work

Trading the NFL LIVE on Sunday night turned out to be good fun and if the reader statistics are to be believed, it would appear that 53 of you joined me to watch the game. Those are pretty good numbers which gives me encouragement that quite a few of you like the idea of me giving opinions as I trade.

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As for the match itself, it started the way I expected with the Colts finding it difficult to break down the Jets defense and I was able to capitalise on this to end up with a medium green figure. Unfortunately, the Jets couldn't keep up their good start but fair play to Cassini for forecasting a comeback by the home team - it ended almost bang on his pre-match prediction of a 12 point difference. If you'd like to see exactly what was said then you can review the comments at anytime by going to the post and clicking on the section under the heading. Thanks to those of you who took the time out to be there - I really enjoyed it.

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My trading calendar looks a bit thin this week so it's likely that the next event won't be until the beginning of February. If you want to make sure don't miss it then why don't you sign up for my updates?

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Next LIVE Event

Thanks to everyone that attended my first event last night. I really enjoyed it but only time will tell if it will have an affect on my trading results. Obviously maintaining my profits comes first, but if I'm honest I think I'd have lost money on that game anyway - it just didn't fit the profile of the type of game that pays off. In fact I might have lost less last night due to the distraction of blogging at the same time!

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I hope those of you who did follow my commentary had fun though. The idea is that it should add to the experience of following the event and if you can pick up any pointers along the way then great.

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So, what's next? Well, with the NFL playoffs reaching it's peak it would be criminal not to cover at least one match so my next LIVE event will be........

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NEW YORK JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

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Prior to the start of the playoffs this is how I ranked the top 12 teams (Betfair odds at the time in brackets) :

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1. New York Jets (48)

2. Green Bay Packers (22)

3. Cincinnati Bengals (44)

4. Baltimore Ravens (34)

5. San Diego Chargers (5.60)

6. New England Patriots (15.50)

7. Indianapolis Colts (4)

8. Philadelphia Eagles (32)

9. Minnesota Vikings (9.20)

10. Dallas Cowboys (13.50)

11. Arizona Cardinals (32)

12. New Orleans Saints (5.80)

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Some surprising positions there like New Orleans & Cincinnati!

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With the Jets the outsiders of the bunch I'm delighted they've got this far but can they go all the way?

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Kick off is at 8pm on Sunday 24th January, but coverage will start on my blog from 7.45pm.

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Losing It

Since Last Post P/L: £630.97

Monthly P/L: £630.97

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Caden has suffered from a bout of sickness and diarrhoea this week so with looking after him, fighting the snow and coping with the launch of a new product in work it's surprising I've been able to make any profit at all!

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Following a nice win on the 1st ODI International between Australia and New Zealand I decided that I needed to investigate ways of lessening the Premium Charge burden. My initial thoughts were to put together a horse laying system that over a period of time returned a break even p&l with an even percentage of winners of losers. My first foray into this strategy ended in a small loss of £28.43 (which is more than I would have paid in terms of PC) but it's not an approach that can be judged on one day so I won't fret just yet. It is a sad state of affairs though when you have to consider how to lose in order to keep hold of profit.

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With 'losing' firmly in my mindset I then thought to myself, "Hey, what the heck, why not take another look at Tennis?" and proceeded to spend a good few hours going through some simulated scenarios. Although the Movistar Open currently being held in Chile isn't Wimbledon, it served it's purpose and provided some enlightening moments. Although I'm still paying for my education I'm beginning to see some light at the end of the tunnel.

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Here's a round-up of my results for February:

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American Football : £12.60

Cricket : £434.79

Darts : £94.10

Horse Racing : £28.43

Rugby Union : £249.35

Tennis : £53.82

Premium Charge : £77.62

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A Premium Pressie

Since Last Update P/L: £333.97

Monthly P/L: £831.48

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It had to happen sooner or later. Last Wednesday saw me incur my first Betfair Premium charge and even though I thought I'd prepared myself, it still left a sour taste in the mouth. I know it's only £15 but when there are no tools/warnings to help predict what this charge will be then it's very difficult to budget for. Being a successful trader/punter is all about control. From stake sizes to discipline it's all part of the big picture, so not having a clue how much Betfair will take at the end of the week tends to go against the grain of things. With this week providing a decent profit, I've got a funny feeling that the size of my gifts are about to start getting bigger.

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Okay, rant over.

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Here are my latest results:

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American Football : £119.79

Cricket : £21.46

Greyhound Racing : £10.22

Horse Racing : £2.88

Rugby Union : £195.55

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Premium Charge : £15.93

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The NFL playoffs have so far provided a mix bag. I've been able to make surprisingly good amounts on trading individual matches but a lot of my picks for the big prize have fallen by the wayside. My top seeds Pittsburgh will now have to deliver if I'm to finish the Superbowl Winner market in profit.

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What about the rest? The 2nd ODI International between Australia and South Africa was fun to trade and helped me get back into the swing of things but once more I made too many wrong decisions. That's the beauty of cricket though - you get so many opportunities to put things right.

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The Heineken Cup has been great entertainment (how good were Cardiff?) and my mouth is now watering at the prospect of the Six Nations. From a Welsh perspective I'm confident of another good show but I wouldn't be backing them at 15/8 for the Championship. Scotland will be a tough opener and a lot rides on that first result.

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Best not to ask about the Horse and Greyhound Racing ;-)

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Caught Out

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Since Last Update P/L: £306.13
Monthly P/L: £497.51

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We've all played Monopoly and we've all been saved by the 'Get Out Of Jail Free' card. Up until Sunday morning I'd forgotten how sweet that feeling was.

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Yet again, I'm kicking myself as I should know better. Twenty 20 Cricket is a high octane event and whilst I'd call it my specialised subject, I'm prone to forgetting that it takes time to adjust to the speed of the game - especially after not trading it for a while. So it shouldn't really surprise me that this is exactly what happened when I settled down to watch the Aussies take on the South Africans over the weekend. After being extremely hasty to get involved I was licking my wounds at the turn of innings and staring at a near maximum loss. It was time to steady the ship and fortunately after playing things tight I was able to recoup most of the deficit. Not an ideal way to start the season! However, I do find it comforting to know that even when I get multiple decisions wrong, I'm still able to make just a small loss. The ability to do this when things aren't going my way ends up saving me a hell of a lot of money over the course of a year and it keeps on reminding me that if I can keep to big wins, small wins and small losses I'll end up being a pretty successful trader.

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Which leads me onto my next subject - Million Dollar Traders. The idea for the TV Programme that was screened on BBC 2 last night is similar to that described in the book, 'The Way Of The Turtle'. Give ordinary people some money, teach them to trade and watch them succeed. At least that's the idea, but any of you who caught the first show last night will vouch that it didn't look that simple! What made me laugh was how similar the experiences of the novices on the show were to when I started on Betfair. I'm sure many of you recognised the weaknesses; lack of discipline, too much emotion, hesitancy, bad timing, over analysis, reluctance to trade, laziness etc. The list goes on. All good entertainment and it'll be interesting to see how the volunteers fare in the coming weeks. One not to miss, and if I'm truthful I'm a little envious that I missed out on giving this show a go :-)

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One last question. I've been a big fan of the Bet Angel team since becoming a customer of theirs over two years ago, and have always been inspired when I watch any of Peter Webb's trading videos. So after reading various new blogs where the authors mention that they've attending Peter's trading course, I now believe the time has come to make a decision on whether I'm serious about trading Horse Racing. Progress on my own systems has been slow so perhaps it's time to gather some insight? This is where I need your advice. If you've attended Peter's course previously then please leave me a comment and let me know if you think it will be suitable to my style. All the testimonials on the site look good (as you'd expect) but for £400 I'd like some independent advice before moving ahead.

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Any help would be appreciated ;-)

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Here's my full list of latest results:

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American Football : £265.19

Cricket : £33.18

Horse Racing : £18.60

Rugby Union : £55.00

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From Another Planet

Since Last Post P/L: £146.04
Monthly P/L: £187.02

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Has anyone checked to see if Phil Taylor has the markings, 'Made In Taiwan' anywhere on his body? After demolishing Barney in a very one sided contest, the man from Stoke made it 14 World Titles and ended a glorious 12 months in style. He really is a freak and it baffles me how he can be so far ahead of the others. Okay, he practices - alot - but I'm sure most of the players do these days with the amount of prize money on offer, so what makes Taylor score 20 points more than the rest every 3 darts?

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It has to be the psychological advantage he holds and the way he uses it for maximum effect. The pre-final interview revealed a significant amount when he admitted that at the first sign of weakness he would look to bully his opponent. Do all the top stars think this way? I'm sure they do, and when they have the game to back it up they become formidable opponents. If ever there was a man who deserved to win 'Sports Personality of the Year' then you'd need not look further than 'The Power'. Sadly, it seems that prize is one that will elude him.

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Elsewhere, things have trickled along nicely. The NFL Playoffs results have so far edged in my favour and after adding LaToya Jackson to my Celebrity Big Brother portfolio I'm feeling a little more comfortable. An interesting few weeks lie ahead.

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Darts

Van Barneveld v Wade : £70.27

Taylor v King : £0.02

Taylor v Van Barneveld : £19.64

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Rugby Union

Leicester v Bath : £27.18

Wasps v Harlequins : £29.12

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American Football

Baltimore v Miami : £4.17

Superbowl Winner : £4.36

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First Impressions

Since Last Post P/L: £40.98

Monthly P/L: £40.98
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Celebrity Big Brother got underway last night and even though it may seem a little sad, the thought of all these prima-donnas arguing over the milk gets me excited. The line-up is a good mix of personalities but one in particular looks to have stolen the show already.

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Verne Troyer is best known for the role he played as Mini-Me in the Austin Powers series of films, and even though he only measures 2 feet 8 inches it seems he's been keen to explore other opportunities since the last movie 'Goldmember' was released in 2002. Gus from the Tellybetting blog has already pointed out that Verne has some form when it comes to reality shows and as I'm a big believer in first impressions I've decided to make a play after just the first show. I'm opposing the female contestants as voting usually goes the way of the males when the decision on who gets evicted gets put to the public. Here's my book as it currently stands:

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Tonight also sees the start of the NFL playoffs and as usual I've tried to predict the eventual winner of the Superbowl. Last year I did quite poorly so I'm hoping to rectify things over the coming weeks and the following rankings are how I see the teams at the minute based on them meeting at a neutral venue. The latest Betfair odds are in brackets.
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1. Pittsburgh (6.4)
2. Baltimore (16)
3. Philadelphia (16.5)
4. Indianapolis (12)
5. NY Giants (4.1)
6. Tennessee (7.2)
7. Carolina (7.0)
8. Minnesota (42)
9. Atlanta (36)
10. Arizona (65)
11. Miami (55)
12. San Diego (22)
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With the way the seeding system works it's not just a case of backing the top team, so after trying to decipher the outcomes of each game I've dutched the following teams:
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The big gamble is opposing Tennessee. I think they've flattered to deceive this season and even though they finished the regular season with a 13-3 record I can't see them pushing past the likes of Pittsburgh at this stage. They have afterall, lost 3 of their last 6 games. Famous last words eh?!?
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The PDC World Darts Championships also now rolls onto the Semi-Finals and how good was it to see Barney take out a 9 darter last night? He was on fire against Klaasen and the thought of him versus Taylor in the Final is a mouth watering prospect. I can't see Wade causing him too much of a problem on current form.
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I blew a bit of profit last night but at least I've started the year in a positive way:
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Darts
King v Bates : £25.54
Taylor v Stompe : £44.97
Nicholson v Wade : £49.73
Van Barneveld v Klaasen : £79.26
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Miracles Do Happen

Since Last Post P/L: £412.68

Monthly P/L: £412.68

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The last few weeks have been hugely demanding and extremely stressful but I’m very happy to report that Caden has had his heart repair surgery and is now on the road to recovery. However, there’ve been many highs and lows and I wouldn’t wish an experience like this on my worst enemy.
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To begin with we were told the night before the operation that due to a lack of beds within intensive care, the operation would need to be postponed with there likely to be a 1-2 week delay. After travelling to Bristol you can imagine our despair – his condition was becoming more noticeable and we were now ready, we needed this to happen.
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Fortunately the surgeon could see our determination and agreed for us to stay at the hospital in the unlikely event that a slot became available. Luckily for us one did and the operation took place on the 20th November. For what seemed like the longest 5 hours we lulled around shopping centres and restaurants waiting for the phone call telling us everything was okay and when we were told that everything was over we all shared a huge sigh of relief. Apparently he had suffered 2 : 1 Heart Block when coming out of theatre but this was something they were able to treat quickly and in general things had gone well.

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It was at this point I thought the worst was over. What I hadn’t considered was the possibility of any setbacks.
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The first day after the operation went to plan but when he started to show signs of deterioration on the second day panic started to set in. It turned out that fluid had started to collect around his heart and lungs and that another operation would be needed to drain what was there. The risks weren’t as great but I still had to sign the consent form and whenever that happens there’s always an element of doubt. A stark reminder of this was the 6 month year old boy in the next bed. He’d been admitted for a similar heart operation but following complications during the procedure he’d suffered a lack of oxygen to the brain. Unfortunately there was no way back and he passed away whilst we were there.
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With these thoughts fresh in the memory it was practically impossible to remain completely calm but I shouldn’t have worried as he sailed through. Even though this complication did set him back he started to show signs of improvement pretty quickly afterwards and within a few days he was fully conscious and trying to become more mobile. He was discharged a week later but within 48 hours were back in hospital. His temperature was spiking for no apparent reason and with the risk of infection high on the radar the doctors wanted to be safe rather than sorry.
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That worry has now died down and since then he’s been gradually on the mend. As of today the progress he’s made completely astounds me. He’s nearly back to being normal and if any of you reading this want proof of a living miracle then you’re welcome to visit :-) The little guy’s been through so much we’re now going to make sure he has the best ever first Christmas!
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At this point of my post I’d love to be able lift the mood but unfortunately I can’t as I was deeply saddened this week to read of the passing of Richard Wildman. Richard was a fellow blogger who fought a courageous battle against cancer throughout 2008 before finally succumbing on the 5th December. If medals were awarded for having a ‘positive outlook’ then Richard would have been at the front of queue as anyone who has read his posts would testify. At the age of 36 he leaves behind a wife and two children and my thoughts are with them at this desperately tough time.
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What I’ve mentioned above really does highlight how precious our time is in this life and this is something I need to make sure stays fresh in my mind. If in future I ever take Caden or any of my family for granted I need to stop, take stock and think about how much others who are less fortunate would love to swap places.
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For what it’s worth I’ve now also been able to start trading again. The Heineken Cup Rugby has been the main focus of my attention and here’s my full results for the month so far:
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American Football : £95.91
Horse Racing : £25.55
Rugby Union : £368.55
Special Bets : £8.26
Poker : £34.49
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The highlight of December always seems to be the PDC Darts World Championship and this year appears to be no exception. Things kickoff on Friday and even though Phil Taylor has had a phenomenal year I’m not sure if the tournament being hosted at Alexandra Palace suits him. The Circus Tavern was his territory but last year he looked a little lost in the new surroundings so it’s difficult for me to get too excited about his chances when his odds are hovering around the 1.60 mark. He’ll surely reach the latter stages but I’d be surprised if you aren’t able to get better odds at some point along the line.
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Either way, the 13 days of competition will determine how I finish the year – will I be a ‘star’ or a ‘turkey’?
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Thanks again to everyone who’s left supportive messages during the past few weeks – they meant a great deal.
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Merry Christmas to you all.
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Mark

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The Big One

Since Last Post P/L: £110.66
Monthly P/L: £421.51

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I'd been hoping for a quiet week but an 8 month old baby had other ideas! Caden decided last Tuesday to get himself another infection and this unfortunately hit him harder than before. His oxygen saturation levels weren't good so it was back to the hospital for a very stressful 3 nights and it was only after the Doctors declared that his temperature was back under control that we were allowed to come home on Friday evening. With his full heart repair operation scheduled for Wednesday the worry was that any deterioration in his condition would force it to be delayed and in extreme circumstances this could be for up to another 6 weeks. With his 'tet spells' becoming more regular this is something we clearly want to avoid so it's sods law that Nicola woke up with a cold on Saturday morning! She's now been banned from going anywhere near him :-)

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So this is it - the big one. As a natural control freak this feeling of uselessness isn't resting comfortably on my shoulders and with there little left for me to do, I'm now resigned to the events that lay ahead. The statistics are in our favour but I'm very nervous - I just want my little boy to be okay.

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With all of this going on I've only been able to to take a quick look at a few events over the weekend. There've been some topsy turvey results and if I hadn't taken a look at the NFL last night I'd have saved myself £80.

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American Football : £63.94

Horse Racing : £4.26

Rugby Union : £175.42

Soccer : £0.36

Poker : £5.44

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Nevermind, other things are way more important and all of my attention now turns to what looks to be a hugely challenging few weeks. Hopefully life will start to return to normal come the beginning of December and I'll be able to let out a huge sigh of relief.

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As I'm not likely to be around for a while, many thanks in advance for all the best wishes we may receive - they are a source of strength and we are hugely grateful.

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Juggling Priorities

Since Last Post P/L: £310.85
Monthly P/L: £310.85
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Before now I've often been guilty of forgetting the contents of my previous post so with this in mind I'll get the bit about my head out of the way. The staples came out last Monday and if I do say so myself I was very brave (ha!) and all that remains is a chunky scar which should at least serve as a reminder on not to be such an idiot in future! Of course, despite this mental note I maintain that my mate was to blame :-)
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My trading involvement has been relatively quiet so it's given me a chance to catch up on some reading. 'Reminiscences of A Stock Operator' was one title missing from my collection and with it being regarded as one of the best I was starting to feel a bit like a fraud for not having given it a look previously. I haven't finished it yet so I won't give a full review but my initial impressions are that if you can get past the way the book is written (it was 80 years ago and wordings have changed) there are some hidden gems on how to look at the bigger picture. It seems that the big money is to be made in the big swings and this is not something I've given my full focus to before. I've often looked to just the short term and whether that's for 1 minute, 10 or 20 maybe I haven't fully considered the conditions of the markets I've been active in. Plenty of food for thought there.
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Where possible I've continued to try and lend Betdaq my business - it hasn't been easy but the graphic below will help illustrate that generating decent sized profits on some in-play markets is possible. I went on to lose a bit of this cash but that doesn't matter ;-)
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What about the rest? Well, the Stanford Superstars giving England a whooping did make me chuckle. Everyone at the ECB got what they deserved in my eyes, and I'm sure they're regretting the decision to get involved with the whole thing now. It was very embarrassing. People have made comparisons regarding the sums of money available to that in football but until now there's never been a situation where Chelsea have been pitched to play Arsenal for $20 million in a one off match. No, although I enjoyed the spectacle, the Stanford match represented greed and for that reason it left a sour taste in the mouth. Not sure my comments mean much though as it also netted me a profit!
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Anyway, here are my full results for the beginning of November:
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Cricket
Stanford Superstars v England : £169.86
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American Football
Green Bay @ Tennessee : £80.35
Dallas @ New York Giants : £48.33
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Horse Racing
Wolverhamption : £8.27
Plumpton : £9.47
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Soccer
Newcastle v Aston Villa : £9.58
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Rugby Union
Australia v New Zealand : £18.99
Scotland v New Zealand : £117.30
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Elsewhere, we've been given the date of the 19th November for Caden's full heart repair operation. This date has already been pushed back once so it's possible it could happen again but if everything goes to plan then the blog and my trading activity are likely to be put on hold come the end of the month. We're now at the stage where we just want to get the operation out of the way so that we can look forward to our first family Christmas.
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Just Ahead

Since Last Post P/L: £302.07

Monthly P/L: £231.70

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The experimenting has continued and it must be due to this and the fact that I've used Betdaq wherever possible, that I've managed to avoid the dreaded Betfair Premium tax. Over the last couple of weeks I've dipped my toes into practically everything with Test Match Cricket, Greyhound Racing and Poker all seeing some action but it was from following John's advice that I decided to give creating my own Bot a go by using BetBotPro.

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The early signs were good - for little effort I was making £30 to £40 a day but it wasn't long before a string of events shook me out of my comfort zone. I'd made some calculations and knew the probability of incurring lengthy losing streaks but even I didn't expect to lay 4 consecutive winners at average odds of 7.40 within the first few days of trialling a recovery staking system!

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It took quite a lot of stupidity for me to risk losing £800+ on the fifth selection - a dog running at Crayford! He made me sweat too as the bloody pooch led for 3 bends before eventually tailing off. William Hill Radio is a great service to catch commentary but I'm not sure if listening to the race helped on this occasion! I haven't given up on the idea of automating some of my betting but let's just say my enthusiasm has cooled for the time being :-)

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Here's a full round-up of my latest results:

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American Football : £22.58

Cricket: £134.99

Greyhound Racing : £137.55

Horse Racing : £77.45

Poker : £23.60

Rugby Union : £108.00

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The Stanford Super Series is the only serious stuff I intend to get involved with for the rest of the month and it'll be interesting to see if England choke under the pressure. Will the huge amount of money on offer make a difference? I have a feeling it will and if I'm right expect some very volatile in-play markets.

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In The Lab

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Since Last Post P/L: £70.37
Monthly P/L: £70.37

After all the recent events and with expected quiet periods around the corner, necessity has demanded that I start looking at additional ways of generating a profit. American Football & Horse Racing were likely candidates but my efforts so far have drawn a blank and it’s clear my strategies need to be reviewed. However, there is a glimmer of hope. Online poker is now so accessible that I’m beginning to think just maybe I can turnover a small consistent revenue stream from playing cash games.

This could be a silly idea but I’ve played the game on and off now for the last few years and I seem to be getting a little better. Maybe it’s time to make a serious effort and approach the game in the same way as my trading? With decisions needing to be made constantly I’m expecting my discipline to be severely tested but the early signs are promising and if I set aside a small starting bank then I won’t be risking the world if things go tits-up. A mate of mine recently appeared on the TV show 'How To Become A Poker Millionaire' and this got me thinking - now what did someone once tell me about big things being possible from small beginnings?

Here’s a list of my losses for the month so far :-) :

Poker : £12.24

Horse Racing : £3.55

American Football : £79.06

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Wind Of Change

Since Last Post P/L: £319.53

Monthly P/L: £867.85

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If you want to blog interactively, open this in another window.

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Unsettled Betfair customers will never have a better excuse to explore other options. The Premium Charge fiasco has rumbled on over the last week and now that the gate has been left open the question remains, "how many will walk through?" As many have said, the barriers preventing people from moving elsewhere are slowly coming down and I still can't believe that Betfair have remained silent on the issue. Heads seem firmly buried in the sand at Betfair Towers and short term thinking now seems to have clouded a once visionary company. With news circulating that Bet Angel are due to release API software for Betdaq within days, the time has come for us to join the exodus. Already websites are popping up to protest at the shoddy treatment and it should be of no surprise that the Betfair forum has gone into meltdown since the first debits were taken from qualifying accounts yesterday afternoon. The whole affair reminds me of what we often do in Wales when it comes to rugby - shoot ourselves in the foot.

So what have I been doing whilst this this has all been going on? Well, my strategy over recent days has been to do very little (apart from withdrawing another £2242 from my Betfair account) and to wait for the dust to settle. The incentive to trial systems on markets where I have little or no edge has gone, as the prospect of getting charged if I get 'lucky' doesn't appeal. However, fortunately for me, October and November are expected quiet months so I can afford to stand back and wait a while but once Betdaq becomes a real option, Betfair will become an expensive second option in my eyes. Bad feelings take a long time to dissolve.

Here's my final results for September:

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Cricket

Glamorgan v Worcestershire : £378.00

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American Football

San Francisco @ New Orleans : £3.52

Carolina @ Minnesota : £12.82

Arizona @ Washington : £21.46

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Golf

Ryder Cup 2008 - Winner : £7.71

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Horse Racing

Ascot : £20.00

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In case you haven't already read them, here are a few recent stories in the media regarding the ongoing situation:

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Business As Usual For Betfair Backers Hit By Charges

Betfair Provides a Lesson In Customer Alienation

Betfair Faces Criticism For Massive Rise In Charges

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Out Of Sorts

Since Last Post P/L: £548.32
Monthly P/L: £548.32

With all this uncertainty surrounding the new Betfair Premium charge it should of no surprise to learn that my trading over the last few weeks has been erratic. Yep, I've made a profit but my actions have been undisciplined and my results far too inconsistent. It seems that whenever change occurs in my life the same pattern emerges as exactly the same thing happened when my son was born in March. Maybe it's not just Betfair that find managing change difficult after all?!?

As today signals the last day of Premium Charge freedom I should now be in a position of clarity but if I'm honest I still haven't figured out what my next actions are going to be. Of course, there are a list of options; increase my stakes, explore Betdaq, dabble with spread betting etc. but I'm keen not to rush in and get my fingers burned (act in haste and repent at leisure and all that).

I still feel victimised though so this hasn't stopped me from taking a few steps to show my disapproval:

• I withdrew £2242 from my Betfair account earlier in the week. Not allowing Betfair to make a few pennies in interest has given me some satisfaction but I've left enough in there to act as a temporary float whilst I mull things over.
• I've created a jpg image on the left hand side of my blog that illustrates I oppose the new Premium Charge. This may seem petty but I'm sure that Betfair think this issue will blow over so I'm keen to keep reminding people it exists. If you want a copy of the image to display on your own blog/website etc. then leave your email address in the comment section of this post and I'll send it over to you.
• After receiving an invitation to attend the Betfair Academy programme I politely declined. Even though this is something that did interest me, how can I now promote a company that targets winners? The link to Betfair will remain on my link list but only to show the exchange still exists (please note - I don't get any type of commission from that link).
• Created my own little Bollywood spoof movie about the charge. View it here. Just a little bit of light entertainment to accompany the many other spoof movies posted on the Betfair forum.

It's also interesting to learn that the people over at Bet Angel seem equally as disgruntled as me. This is the notice that currently appears when you log-in to use their software:

PREMIUM CHARGES - BET ANGEL CONFERENCE SESSION
We note that despite being lobbied by us and our customers, Betfair have not made any further statements about the new charges. Therefore we have to assume they will come into effect on Monday. If they make no further statements over the weekend we plan to initiate a web conference session with interested users on Monday evening 7PM UK time. During this session we will have an open discussion and lay out our thoughts and plans. The session will be hosted by Peter Webb. Please check back on Monday morning on this page for details of how to join the session.

I'll be joining the session to see what Peter and the team have to say but I'm not too hopeful. I'm guessing that it'll go along the lines that steps have been made to design alternative software but these things will take time etc. If this is the case then it looks as though the exodus to Betdaq may have to be put on hold for the time being.

So that's that, but as some of you may have noticed I haven't posted any results for September yet. I felt that talking about wins/losses was inappropriate given the circumstances so here's a small catch-up:

American Football: £48.94

Cricket: £251.24

Horse Racing: £17.41

Golf: £84.54

Motor Sport: £177.04

Rugby Union: £39.46

Special Bets: £62.39

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A Lost Weekend

Since Last Post P/L: £427.18
Monthly P/L: £427.18

There are no prizes for guessing what my weekend mostly consisted of. If you guessed drinking (lots and lots) of beer, watching rugby and trading then you are spot on and what a fantastic time I had. Obviously, Wales beating England on their own patch instigated the mayhem and I'm really struggling today to explain what I did and where I did it on Saturday night.

Not everyone was as happy as me though. As you can imagine, Nicola had different feelings when I collapsed half-in and half-out of the doorway on my return home. Yes I was badly behaved but it has been twenty years since we last tasted victory at Twickenham so I had to make the most of it. The house ban that she's now put on me seems justified.

Somehow (and I really don't know how) I also managed to fit in some trading, and maybe the feeling of being on another planet helped me as the profits seemed to mount up without having to work too hard. Even the New York Giants won the Superbowl for goodness sake!

Here's a summary of my latest results:

NFL Season 07/08 - Super Bowl Winner : £147.49

South Africa v West Indies : £245.01

England Saxons v Ireland A : £63.21

Ireland v Italy : £28.53

We all know it works the other way too so I'm going to enjoy this feeling while it lasts and with a bit of luck the rest of February might turn out okay.

Twitchy Bum Time

Since Last Post P/L: £201.34
Monthly P/L: £169.78
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Oh crap! I've got my head in my hands as I'm dangerously close to ending my first month since I started trading with a loss. The NFL playoffs once again proved to be my undoing as I got decision after decision wrong and before I knew it I'd reached my maximum stop loss figure.
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Sunday's Results:
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NFL
San Diego @ New England : £194.88
NFL Season 07/08 Superbowl Winner : £23.47
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Cricket
South Africa v West Indies : £17.01
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There is a slight positive. I felt a little uneasy about Green Bay turning over New York, so before the kick off I decided to spread my position over the three outsiders. It was a lucky move as the Giants are the ones progressing to the Superbowl so at least I have a chance of getting back some profit when they go up against New England. This won't affect my January P/L though as this matchup isn't taking place until the 3rd February.
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So how can I ensure I don't self destruct over the next few days? Well, sitting on my hands is one approach but as the 3rd ODI between the Saffers and the Windies is on Sunday I'll probably get involved. I don't want to ruin my perfect record so I'm going to have to concentrate 100% to stay in profit. Wish me luck!
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Break In Service

Since Last Post P/L: £43.89

Monthly P/L: £371.12

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It's wet, it's dark, it's cold and it's depressing. After a fantastic Christmas, January is the last thing you need and it's no surprise to me that I've found things tough going over the last week. At this time of the year it's seems much easier to let the gremlins get into the mind and to become pessimistic. To this end, I've found myself giving reassurances that things will get better and that this was to be expected. This may be the case but it doesn't mean I like it and I really can't wait for the warm, balmy summer nights to come back.

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I'm still aiming to make a 10% growth on my trading bank by the end of the month, but this is beginning to look like a very unlikely target. Here's a roundup of my results since my last post:

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NFL

NY Giants @ Dallas : £137.02

NFL Season 07/08 Super Bowl Winner : £29.92

San Diego @ Indianapolis : £50.31

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Rugby Union

Wasps v Scarlets : £13.42

Clermont v Munster : £39.86

Castres v Leeds : £24.19

Glasgow v Saracens : £27.27

Dragons v Perpignan : £51.09

Leicester v Leinster : £25.92

Munster v Wasps : £49.39

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Quit a lot of work for no return with the NFL Playoffs really giving me a headache last Sunday. You'll also notice that my consistency with Rugby Union has been letting me down. Is it because I'm using far bigger stakes than what I was using this time last year? Have the rugby in-play markets (for domestic competitions) the liquidity I need? I'm not sure of the answers yet so I'm going to be very cautious between now and the end of the month.

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Sport Of Kings?

Since Last Post P/L: £121.90
Monthly P/L: £415.01

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Despite the dreadful weather my day did brighten up after an ominous start.

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Whilst waiting for the first Heineken Cup match of the day I decided to take a look at the Horse Racing to review a few in-running strategies that had been going through my head. The first race was the 12.40 at Kempton and Red Flare went off as the market leader at 3.00 on Betfair. My strategy was based on the favourite so even though I ended up not placing a bet I was always keeping an eye on his progress and for the most part he was in with a chance...until....the last hurdle. The poor bugger hit the fence flat out and suffered an horrific fall from which he wouldn't recover.

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This bothered me. I've been a fan of the sport since an early age but as more of my time has been taken up watching other things, I'd forgotten how gruesome it can be. Having horses die for my entertainment is not what I call fun and whilst I don't pretend to know all the answers, I'd seen enough to switch channels. If you asked me now to describe my relationship with Horse Racing in real life terms, I'd say we were having a break to see how things work out.

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Leinster v Toulouse

I'm guessing that my head must have still been somewhere else when I sat down to trade this one. I strayed from my game plan early on, lost touch with the match and it wasn't long before I was looking at a sizeable loss. Fortunately, I was able to improve my discipline and by half time accepted a loss of £58.20. It was time for a distraction, so I headed off to Swansea to watch the Ospreys take on Gloucester.

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Seattle @ Green Bay

The Ospreys didn't let me down and even though I got drenched, watching them beat the Guinness Premiership leaders certainly made up for it. After a quick shower, I was back at my desk to get involved in the the NFL and within a few minutes I was convinced it wasn't going to be my day. Two quick scores put Seattle 14-0 up and my fancied Green Bay were in a right mess. My outright bet on the Superbowl winner seemed to be going down the drain and I was struggling to take a hold on the match - could it get any worse? To my relief, the Packers then started to up their game and not long after they'd managed to pull the score level. It was a cracking first half, I'd ridden the wave and come out the other side - my profit on the match ended at £180.10.

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