Sunday, 20 November 2011

Geek's Toy For Betdaq!

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Interesting times ahead as the 'Geek' has announced he'll be releasing a Betdaq version of the 'Toy' very soon.  The liquidity on Betdaq has been increasing gradually over the summer since Betfair announced their new 'super' Premium Charge, so it'll be interesting to see if this software release will further help push users over to their rival exchange.  In my opinion this is great news.
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In addition, the 'Geek' is also running another fantastic fundraiser for BBC Children in Need.   There's some great prizes up for grabs so it's well worth checking out!
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For those of you unfamiliar with Geeks Toy, it's a completely free pice of software for betting or trading on Betfair and to be fair it's very good.  My favourite feature is that it allows you to see the amounts being matched on each side of the market, but the recently released 1.2 Beta now has Dutching, Bookmaking, stop loss, a multibet tool, support for Betfair video.  A new in play interface is also due to be released on Monday.
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Their forum is also very active so if you have any problems there's always someone willing to help out.  As the 'Geek' says.....
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Geeks Toy - Probably the best Betfair trading software in the world!
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Friday, 11 November 2011

Work In Progress

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I've been continuing to fiddle with my in-play p&l monitoring tool since my my last post and really feel it's helping me take a broader view in the markets I'm playing.
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Many of you'll have noticed an increase in the number of fast picture merchants on Betfair over the last few years which has meant the opportunity of nicking a tick here and there is fast disappearing.  This lack of bonus ticks can make a big impact over the long term so I've been very conscious that I need to adapt in some areas to make up the shortfall.  In addition, when using bigger sums it's harder to get in and out so being more selective and looking to hold positions for longer seems to be a logical move.
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First up was the 1st Test Match between South Africa and Australia in Cape Town which turned out to be an extraordinary affair with 23 wickets falling on the 2nd day - totally bonkers!  Here's my graph - click here.  Once again I played very cautiously on the first day before realising it was time to get a bit more aggressive when things were starting to happen.  I didn't push it though, and decided to call it a day at the end of the South African 1st innings.  Lucky I did as Australia were then bowled out for just 47!
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Yesterday's second event was some more NFL action with the Raiders visiting the Chargers.  As you can see from this graph, things didn't go to plan yet again as the visitors got an early lead and I needed to claw things back.  The positive?  Well, I finished with a profit and by not monitoring my risk throughout I may not have.  I'm sure the monitoring tool saved me but as the end of the game became more volatile the market became illiquid resulting in some inaccurate figures being recorded on the chart.
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Hope you're liking the screenshots as much as I am :-)
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Tuesday, 8 November 2011

Lights, Camera...Action!

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Move over Tom Cruise!  I've been thinking a lot recently as to how I can improve my in-play betting and have come to the conclusion that it would be great if I could review my performance quickly and easily after an event has finished.  Reviewing what went well and not so well in the heat of the battle has never my strong point of mine due to me not having the time or inclination to trawl through my Betfair account and work out what trades were winners, but now I think I found a solution.
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I could try and explain by writing it here but it would probably long winded and confusing.  Instead, dim the lights, get comfy and reach for the popcorn - it's time for my first video blog!
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I'm no Brad Pitt and I don't have the screen presence of Richard Burton (in fact I look genuinely ill after being up all night), but you might find it interesting.  Leave me a comment if you do but please, no autograph requests....
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CLICK HERE TO WATCH VIDEO
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Sunday, 6 November 2011

Remember Remember...

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November always signifies the quietest time of the year for me and if I wasn't expecting a new arrival in December it would normally be time to get away for a while.  Discipline is called for and experimenting on unfamiliar sports is scaled down.  Playing it a little safer is my normal play when events are sparse.
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NFL though is one sport that tends to pick up during the month as it contains the national holiday, 'Thanksgiving'.  Along with another excuse to get out the turkey, it also allows the Americans to schedule more gridiron action which is one of the reasons I've really concentrated on the game this year.
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Naturally, I build my own views from statistics available on sites like NFL.com and ESPN NFL, but it's always good practice to compare my expectations against others and recently I've stumbled across a website and mobile app that allows me to do this for free.
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Alot of you maybe familiar with this firm already but 'Accuscore' are a self-proclaimed leading sports forecasting company, so who better to match up against?
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They do offer a fee based service but there's no need to go that far as on both platforms they provide sufficient analysis on the weeks matches without a cost.  For example, here's a snippet from their Jets @ Bills preview for this weekend (click for video):
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"The Buffalo Bills are a solid favorite with a 62% chance to beat the New York Jets. Fred Jackson is projected for 90 rushing yards and a 51% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 38% of simulations where New York Jets wins, Mark Sanchez averages 1.31 TD passes vs 0.75 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.87 TDs to 1.47 interceptions."   
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Now I like that type of thing as the write-up is highly specific and over time I'll be able to judge how accurate they are.  In addition, the mobile app is really easy to use and is quite a funky companion although it only features the same information as whats available on their website.  If you prefer other North American sports like Baseball or the NBA then they've got them covered too (at least they do when they're not on lockout).
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Don't get me wrong, this tool is unlikely to make you rich overnight but what it does illustrate, to me at least, is that it's useful to have a quality benchmark to measure yourself against.
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