Thursday, 22 July 2010

The Better Team Won

It’s a common phrase used nearly all the time by TV pundits, but the question I like to ask is, “did they really?”

First impressions can be misleading, as our memories have the convenient ability to block out certain inalienable truths and to only recall the key moments of an event or the extraordinary emotions that we associated with them. Try thinking back to the last time your favourite team experienced a sporting high – were they really that good? Or was it just a moment of genius or perhaps your fondness for the result that has given you that impression?

Why is this important? Well these misconceptions can lead to inefficient markets as odds compilers are commonly influenced by past results and not necessarily past performance. Spotting these inefficiencies can therefore have a hugely positive effect on future trading results.


Tuesday, 13 July 2010

Rocky Woods

On the eve of the Open Golf Championship at St. Andrews, I can't help but feel a little cynical about the upcoming events. This time last year Tiger Woods was continuing to dominate the sport and nobody looked like stopping him but after the bizarre events of recent months the mask has fallen and an air of fallibility has wafted over him.

Or has it? True, he's looked a shadow of his former self in recent tournaments, but if you were his closest advisor would you have recommended that he resume where he left off prior to the unveiling of his double life? Or instead, would you have gently suggested that the road back should be a little more arduous in order to win back the fans and the sponsors? In true Hollywood fashion, is it now time for the greatest player the world has ever known to be crowned once more at the home of golf?

To me it smells of being a little conspired and as he demolished the field in his last two visits to this course you won't find me laying the 8's on Betfair.


Saturday, 3 July 2010

Tough Chase

Yes, I did survive my day of golf but it was as tough as I was expecting. After hitting my first shot at 5.25am, it wasn't until 9.30pm that I was able to sink my last putt. Parts of my body that I didn't even know existed had started aching at that point and I was very glad to get to bed that night. Macmillan raised lots of cash though so it was well worth it, and who knows, maybe I'll give it another go next year.

For what it's worth, I'm currently watching England struggle to contain Australia as they come to the end of their innings in today's One Day International. With the score now at 258/5 in the 49th over it'll be a very tough chase for the home side although the Aussie price of 1.44 does seem a bit low. I'll be watching to see if their price is able to get above 1.60 when England get to bat as that would seem like a value price from here.

Good luck with whatever you're up to on this sunny Saturday.