Wednesday, 21 March 2012

Split Personality


Yesterday saw the third ODI between West Indies and Australia and that was the focus of my day.  As it was also the third match to be played in St Vincent it was no surprise that the teams were tested once again with tricky conditions but I much prefer watching a game like that than others where it can become a run fest with nothing in it for the bowlers.

Whilst having 3 matches at the same venue can often be helpful for identifying trends, it doesn't take long for the market to catch on and this can make it more difficult to spot opportunities.  My P&L graph for this match sort of tells the story (click to enlarge):


You can see that during the first innings I didn't hold a strong position at anytime and my plays were generally small.  I  often find this as the downside to trading an ODI as over 8 hours things can get a little slow and then.....BANG....in the second innings after a brief lapse of concentration (as highlighted) I find myself staring at a loss when things get a little more volatile.

Fortunately I was able to pull this position back but in the end it didn't matter as the match ended in a tie!  Now a lot of cricket traders tend not to cover themselves in the 'tied match' market but I always do and after looking at that graph you should start to understand why.  Yes, I often take bad value (aren't all types of insurance?) but after experiencing all those ups and downs I want to make sure I get paid.

So it's an additional 10% from the cricket towards my break even target but a Premium Charge being taken today will reduce that by 2%.  The total is therefore now 77% - I'm within touching distance!


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2 comments:

SoccerDude said...

Hi Mark

I'm surprised it's taken me so long to add your blog to my roll, seeing as yours is one of the longest running, most well-established blogs around.

Not really sure why. Anyway, if you want to swap links that would be great.

Mine is "A Football Trader's Path" at http://footytradingposts.blogspot.co.uk/

Cheers
Eddie.

Mark Iverson said...

Hi Eddie,

No worries - to be honest I've lost track of whose on my blogroll too!

I've added you now anyway.

Good luck as always and thanks.

Mark