Friday, 31 December 2010

Join The List


With the start of a new year just a round the corner it's often a time for us to reflect and take stock. At the same time we like to look forward to what the future holds, but unfortunately, some of us can't look that much further ahead.

A few months ago I read about the plight of a young 23 year old lady named Victoria Tremlett who suffers from Cystic Fibrosis and who is currently waiting for a double lung transplant to transform here life. Now, most of us would crawl under a rock, feel sorry for ourselves and generally retreat from society but not 'Tor' - she's made it her mission to raise awareness of her 'life on the list' and has campaigned tirelessly throughout 2010 for people in the UK to join the Organ Donation Register.

She's still waiting, and she's not the only one. In the UK it's not compulsory to be a donor and the the sad fact is that somebody would have to die for anyone on the list to receive an organ transplant. Whilst an unexpected death would be a terrible situation to face I can't help but feel that I'd like to help someone 'live on' after I've gone.

So this is an appeal to my readers. To join the list and be able to help others if the worst should happen then click here.

If you want to follow Victoria's story then you can also read her Blog or follow here on Twitter.

Hopefully I haven't put too much of a downer on your celebrations, and I wish you all a very happy and prosperous New Year!


Sunday, 26 December 2010

Buffoon Boycott


Congratulations England. A fantastic first day brought embarrassment to the Aussies and also a well known ageing commentator.

Geoffrey Boycott has been around for donkeys years and whilst he may have been a quality player, how much longer can he milk the BBC out of tax payers money by providing expert analysis?

If any of you were listening to 'Five Live' last night then you'll already know what I'm talking about. Boycott started sledging the England team after just 12 minutes play and came out with brash statements such as, "I can't see England winning this" and "I'm supposed to know what I'm talking about, that's why I'm an expert."

You really need to listen for yourself, so click this link and listen from 42 minutes to 48 minutes. The great thing is that this period also covers the fall of the first Aussie wicket, which is very amusing after his earlier comments.

In the end he couldn't have been more wrong - England put on a clinic and the Aussies folded to 98 all out. Boycott should hang up his microphone for good.


Tuesday, 21 December 2010

Tough At The Top

I watch quite a bit of rugby but I haven't seen a tackle as bad as the one Xavier Rush made on England International Courtney Lawes at the weekend for a long time. He nearly took his head off! Click here to see it.

Elsewhere, Phil Taylor has stumbled through his first round match at the PDC World Darts Championships. It's crazy that quite a few TV pundits are now suddenly questioning his credentials. I accept that players in any sport will never hit the dizzy heights forever, but write off Taylor at your peril. His price has drifted on Betfair to a very tempting 2.18 from 1.75, but I can't help but think that the 'Sports Personality of the Year' nomination may have distracted him a little.


Sunday, 19 December 2010

Snow Problem

With the snow putting many of the weekends sporting clashes 'out of action', it's given me the opportunity to review whether I should continue posting my Premier League ratings on the blog.

The initial reason for putting them on here was to generate thoughts and accumulate some feedback. As that hasn't materialised I'm not sure if there's that much interest despite the positive results. So with this in mind is there any point in cluttering up the blog with uninteresting content?

I appreciate that quite a few of my readers may not want to read about Football all the time so what's the answer?

Well, you've probably noticed the yellow banner above this post - I've set-up a mailing list. This helps me solve 3 issues; it frees up the blog again for other things, it will show me if there's any interest in my ratings and it also gives me the opportunity to present the information in a nicer fashion. Here's an example...


With a busy Christmas period coming up it also ensures that anybody who subscribes won't miss my selections. I won't take it personally if I get little response but there's no charge and I won't share your personal information so you haven't got anything to lose.


Saturday, 18 December 2010

Colin Lloyd Loses It


One of the funniest things I've seen in sport for a while happened last night during the first round of the PDC World Darts Championships.

Colin Lloyd, a one-time world number one, totally lost the plot and punched the dart board during his match-up with German Andree Welge.

Unfortunately for Lloyd, even with his fist he was nowhere near the treble 20 :-)

If you missed it then click here to watch. It's even better in slow motion!


Friday, 17 December 2010

Winter Wonderland

After picking 3 out of 4 right results last weekend I'm happy that my ratings are continuing to move in the right direction. With the Man Utd v Arsenal game also a close affair maybe I was a little unlucky not to have a clean sweep? Maybe, maybe not, but one things for sure - I've never been as profitable from betting on Football and that is giving me a lot of encouragement. Here are my latest statistics for the season:

Bets : 58
Won : 36 (62%)
Lost : 22 (38%)
Average Odds : 2.52

And so onto this week....



Blackpool v Tottenham: The only game to stand-out and offer any value according to my figures is this one and once again it would appear that Ian Holloway's men are being neglected. Both teams are very closely rated on 4 match form with Tottenham having a slightly better away/home bias but is this enough to justify odds of 1.70? I don't think so, and with Blackpool having strong performances over the last 2 games there's a chance they could steal all 3 points on Sunday. Conclusion: Lay Tottenham @ 1.70


Wednesday, 8 December 2010

Even Stevens

I was very pleased with Everton's late equaliser against Chelsea last weekend as it meant another profitable week for my new Premier League ratings, but I'm not getting ahead of myself. If I can finish the season in profit then I'll accept that maybe I'm onto something but for the time being I intend to keep stakes relatively small and just learn as much as I can in the process.

For the record though, here are the full statistics for the season to date:

Bets : 54
Won : 33 (61%)
Lost : 21 (39%)
Average Odds : 2.47

Now onto this weekend:


From that table you can probably identify quite a few equally matched teams squaring up this week. Maybe a great day for some score draws? I'm going to reserve judgement until Friday when the prices will have firmed up but be sure to come back as I'll be updating this post with my value picks then. In the meantime, here's the latest form table:


UPDATE - 10/12/2010

Aw shucks! Now I know nobody is reading this as nobody spotted my mistake when I posted my statistics. I would dearly love average odds of 2.90 but as yet I can only manage 2.47. It was an honest typo so please accept my apologies.

Here's the latest odds from Betfair:


So what do I think the weekend holds in store? Okay, from the top....

Everton v Wigan: If I wasn't using these ratings then I wouldn't have even considered this bet. Not much in it between the two sides in both the 4 match supremacy and home/away form (Everton slightly stronger on both) so to discover a juicy draw price of 4.50 means there's only one thing to do. Conclusion: Draw @ 4.50

Stoke v Blackpool: Blackpool seem to be completely underestimated every week according to my ratings. Stoke seem to be priced extremely short when comparing the statistics and with both sets of results very consistent over the last 4 games it didn't take me long to decide to oppose them. Conclusion: Lay Stoke @ 1.67

West Ham v Man City: Another match where I'm pleasantly surprised by the prices available. Man City have been very solid form over the last 4 games and are completely dominant (23.75 v 11.50). Their away form is also superior to West Ham's form this season (21.25 v 15.00) so the 1.95 for an away win seems very appealing. Conclusion: Back Man City @ 1.95

Man Utd v Arsenal: A titanic clash with the 2nd and 3rd placed teams in my form table matching up. Not surprisingly the last 4 games for both sides are packed with strong performances and there's no separating them when it comes to home/away form either. The price of 3.60 on the draw is just big enough to gain my interest. Conclusion: Draw @ 3.60

Thursday, 2 December 2010

Spotting Value

Bolton came to my rescue last weekend to pull back a 2 goal deficit and secure a draw at home to Blackpool. At odds of 4.30 the price seemed a bit high as in my book 3.00 (approx 33%) would have been about right. Even though there were other games of interest, that match turned out to be my only bet as the prices on the other short-list selections didn't provide any value and at the end of the day that's what it's all about.

So can we pick any short-list selections this week?


I'll update this post tomorrow with the latest prices and my thoughts, but I'm really interested to see if any of you lot can highlight some opportunities. There could be quite a few in there so let me know by leaving a comment!

UPDATE - 03/12/2010

Thanks to Matt for taking the time to post his thoughts on my latest ratings. Now it's my turn!

Here's the latest odds (Blackpool v Man Utd has been postponed so this match has been excluded) :


There's a lot going on there but these are the stand-outs from my perspective:

Birmingham v Tottenham: Rafael van der Vaart is out for Spurs so can the London side perform without him? He makes a big difference to the team but with a huge 4 game supremacy (26.25 v 16.25) and superior home/away form I think they can get over the line at a generous price of 2.20. Conclusion: Tottenham win.

Chelsea v Everton: These teams are closely matched on last 4 games and home/away form but it does worry me that both have had a stand-out shocking performance recently (Chelsea 14 and Everton's 9). However 5.10 is a big price and that is enough to sway me towards my decision. Conclusion: Draw

Man City v Bolton: A very similar match-up to the previous game although Bolton probably have a slightly better chance of pulling off a victory. I don't think they will mind so I'll plump for the 4.20 that says it'll end in a stalemate. Conclusion: Draw

Sunderland v West Ham: This was a difficult decision - is the 1.91 on offer for Sunderland to win value? Their form beats West Ham on both counts but this doesn't feel as solid a selection as the 2.20 on Tottenham. Ideally I would be looking for a price above 2.00 but the Hammers have been dismal this season. Conclusion: Sunderland win.

An important part of any betting plan is to manage your risk and stake correctly so for your information the value of my bets decrease for selections with higher odds. However, they're all in proportion with the size of my bank. I'm not saying this is the best way of maximising any edge I may have as I could adopt a 'Kelly' approach but it's working for me right now so I'll stick with it for the time being.

Friday, 26 November 2010

One For The Money

Thanks to those of you who took the time to comment on my last post. It's nice to know someone is taking a look at my ratings and all feedback is appreciated. It even got a mention on Cassini's excellent blog 'Green All Over' which is high praise indeed, although I'm a little stumped as to how our ratings differ so much. If we were picking names out of a hat we'd have ended up with a closer match!

So, onto this weekend....


and here are the current Betfair prices...


What are my thoughts? Well, there's a few matches that raise my interest but this one especially:

Bolton v Blackpool - One thing that I didn't mention previously was my liking for consistency. If a team has one 'green' performance' but then backs it up with a 'yellow' and then a couple of 'reds' it shows signs that they are unreliable. These 2 teams are the exact opposite. Over the last 4 matches both have strung together greens and yellows which leads me to think this could be a close game especially when I look at the respective home and away averages which are 19.29 and 19.39. Bolton do have a good 4 game supremacy difference though (24.00 to 19.50) and Blackpool's scores do seem to be on a dipping trend so it will be the prices that decide what to do from here. Bolton to win at 1.61 (62%) seems too short but on the other hand I don't fancy Blackpool to win. That leaves the draw at 4.30 which represents just over a 23% chance. For me, I think there maybe some value here. With the par price for the draw in Premier League matches normally around 3.40 is the market missing a trick?

That's my insight into the reading of one match but I'm interested to hear your thoughts on any of the other games. Do my ratings highlight any other possibilities?

Tuesday, 23 November 2010

Ghost Town

Well, what did I expect? Not one reply to my last post! Not surprising really as I know I don't blog very often these days, but I'll try once more.

For the record, my thoughts for the last round of games only threw up one solid opportunity and that was for Blackpool to beat Wolves. Why? Well, the first thing I try to identify is for one team to have a strong supremacy over the last 4 games and Blackpool fitted the bill with 3 strong performances and an average rating of 21.00. Wolves on the other hand had 3 poor performances on the bounce and only one strong performance which was 4 matches ago. Their average was only 16.75.

Secondly, I look at the average home and away ratings for the relevant teams for the season to date. I'm looking for the supremacy to continue here and in this example it did. Blackpool had an average home rating of 19.80 compared to Wolves' away rating of 13.00 - that's quite a difference!

Finally, after spotting a mismatch it's all down to the prices on offer. If I get to this stage then I'm confident that I've been able to narrow the result down to a 50/50 shot so if I can get better than odds of 2.00 then I've a short-listed selection. The odds on a Blackpool win was 2.48 and that was good enough for me so I made the bet.

Now I'm not preaching that this is a fool-proof system as there are other factors to consider (like the loss of a key player etc.) but as a rule the idea is to spot value over the long term through a few simple steps. It's not rocket science but there's quite a bit of method behind the ratings so I'm hopeful the run can continue.

For those of you who might still be interested here's my latest form table taking us up to the 22/11/2010. Some unexpected teams are towards the top:


Saturday, 20 November 2010

Something To Chew On

Since the beginning of the football season I've been busy working on a rating system for the Premier League. It's now reached a stage where I feel it offers a level of reliability and has to date enabled my to generate an ROI of 28%. Not bad considering this is all new to me!

So this is how it works. Below is a snippet showing this weekends Premier League games (clicking on it should make it bigger).


The most recent games are nearest to the team name and have been assigned a score from 4 to 34. Naturally the higher the better, but to help there's a traffic light system. A green background indicates a strong performance whilst a yellow one is average and a red poor. Simple eh?

The table also then shows the average score for that team over the last 4 games (Ave) and the average score for the home team playing at home this season (Ho.Ave) and vice versa for the away team (Aw.Ave).

By representing performances in this fashion it should be easier for me to highlight a team on form and when compared to prices it should identify value bets.

Here's the most current pre-match prices for these matches on Betfair:


So how do you interpret these performances against the prices - do you see any value based on my ratings?

Wednesday, 17 November 2010

Geek's Toy - Children In Need



After announcing that the Geeks Toy Trading Software will continue to remain completely free for 49 weeks of 2011, the Geek is also going to extreme lengths to raise money for 'Children In Need'.

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As part of the fundraising there are some excellent prizes up for grabs, including £250 cash and a Betfair API subscription worth £2000.
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In addition, The Geek is running a charity plugathon, so if you're a sports / Betfair blogger / site owner and want to help raise money for good causes then check this out.
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On top of all this version 1.1 of the 'The Toy' was released recently and now includes advanced charting and market overview features. This combined with it's reliability and speed make it the essential partner for any trading session and I'm happy to endorse it.
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Let's raise as much money as possible and thanks to you all in advance.
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All the best,
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Mark

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Friday, 1 October 2010

Splash

The Ryder Cup started this morning and then stopped. Not completely surprising when you consider that this massive televised event is being played during one of the wettest months in the Welsh calendar. Hugely disappointing as after visiting the course for the Wales Open in June I had all my prep notes ready for a big day.

Not surprisingly, the hard to follow format and difficulty in following four balls per match have also led to some sparse liquidity in the markets. Plenty of people out there following the 'wait and see' approach I think.

Elsewhere, I've decided to join the 'twitter' revolution. I know I'm about 5 years behind everyone else but as I don't religiously carry around a mobile phone I've never felt the need to but my thoughts softened a little this week after dropping in on Ian
Poulter - he seems a pretty cool guy.

Not sure how it'll go but if you'd like to be kept up to date with some ramblings on sports trading and things in general then
go here.

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Thursday, 22 July 2010

The Better Team Won

It’s a common phrase used nearly all the time by TV pundits, but the question I like to ask is, “did they really?”

First impressions can be misleading, as our memories have the convenient ability to block out certain inalienable truths and to only recall the key moments of an event or the extraordinary emotions that we associated with them. Try thinking back to the last time your favourite team experienced a sporting high – were they really that good? Or was it just a moment of genius or perhaps your fondness for the result that has given you that impression?

Why is this important? Well these misconceptions can lead to inefficient markets as odds compilers are commonly influenced by past results and not necessarily past performance. Spotting these inefficiencies can therefore have a hugely positive effect on future trading results.

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Tuesday, 13 July 2010

Rocky Woods

On the eve of the Open Golf Championship at St. Andrews, I can't help but feel a little cynical about the upcoming events. This time last year Tiger Woods was continuing to dominate the sport and nobody looked like stopping him but after the bizarre events of recent months the mask has fallen and an air of fallibility has wafted over him.

Or has it? True, he's looked a shadow of his former self in recent tournaments, but if you were his closest advisor would you have recommended that he resume where he left off prior to the unveiling of his double life? Or instead, would you have gently suggested that the road back should be a little more arduous in order to win back the fans and the sponsors? In true Hollywood fashion, is it now time for the greatest player the world has ever known to be crowned once more at the home of golf?

To me it smells of being a little conspired and as he demolished the field in his last two visits to this course you won't find me laying the 8's on Betfair.

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Saturday, 3 July 2010

Tough Chase

Yes, I did survive my day of golf but it was as tough as I was expecting. After hitting my first shot at 5.25am, it wasn't until 9.30pm that I was able to sink my last putt. Parts of my body that I didn't even know existed had started aching at that point and I was very glad to get to bed that night. Macmillan raised lots of cash though so it was well worth it, and who knows, maybe I'll give it another go next year.

For what it's worth, I'm currently watching England struggle to contain Australia as they come to the end of their innings in today's One Day International. With the score now at 258/5 in the 49th over it'll be a very tough chase for the home side although the Aussie price of 1.44 does seem a bit low. I'll be watching to see if their price is able to get above 1.60 when England get to bat as that would seem like a value price from here.

Good luck with whatever you're up to on this sunny Saturday.

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Sunday, 20 June 2010

Summer Loving

Finally, we have what I would call a normal British summer. After a week of little/no rain and with no further rain forecast until at least next Sunday we can all enjoy the outdoors.

Or can we?

If you're anything like me then probably not as with the good weather you can kiss goodbye to rain affected cricket matches, so with a game on everyday it's all systems go. I can't complain as I need to make the most of this time of year but I can admit to being a little envious when my mates get talking about spending lazy afternoons in beer gardens etc.

However, all is not lost as tomorrow I'll be playing golf in the glorious sunshine in aid of McMillan Cancer Support. I lost my mother to breast cancer 8 years ago and feel very strongly that anyone unfortunate to be diagnosed with the disease should be supported and comforted as much as possible.

Hopefully, my contribution will make a small difference but it won't be plain sailing as the challenge is to play 4 rounds of golf on 4 different courses all in one day. That's 20 miles if I hit the ball straight, and with my swing I'm odds against!

Come to think of it, if I'm to get up at 4am then I need to go to bed.

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Friday, 18 June 2010

In The Rough

I watched the hugely interesting documentary, 'The Rise & Fall Of Tiger Woods' last night and boy was it an eye opener. I already knew that Tiger's late father Earl had crafted his career but was astonished at the lengths he'd gone too to ensure his son had the best chance of success. We've all heard of pushy parents but that guy took things to a different level! Maybe he went too far, but there's no doubting that what he did helped to create the World's greatest golfer.

The programme got me thinking. Do we all have the capacity to improve? If I'd practised for the same number of hours as Tiger, would the rate of my improvement have been as consistent and as rapid as his? The instinctive answer is no and the stock response is that we need natural talent but how do we know? Am I succeeding at trading because it suits my personal attributes, because I work harder than others or a due to a mixture of both?

One thing I can say is that you can't beat attention to detail, and after investing more time this year analysing my performance and studying the game of cricket it seems to be paying off.

Now, Who once said, "the harder I work the luckier I get?"

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Tuesday, 15 June 2010

Blah Blah Blah

One of the advantages of having this iPad is the ability to casually monitor the Betfair odds either on the move or whilst casually lounging on the sofa. This is something I used to enjoy doing when I had a laptop but after 30 minutes it used to get uncomfortably hot and the noise used to get slightly irritating.

I no longer have these problems as this nifty device makes no noise and doesn't heat up - can you guess it's my new best friend?

There are some drawbacks though, with the temptation for making 'leisure' bets extremely inviting. It's amazing how markets like the Eurovision song contest and Big Brother suddenly become so much more attractive when you you can strike a bet at a touch of a button.

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Monday, 14 June 2010

The Wonders Of Technology

I know, I know, it's been a while but after the lack of interest shown in my live coverage of T20 I figured that I wouldn't be missed too much.

A lot has been going on but for those of you interested, the IPL didn't turn into a bonanza for me but more of a damage limitation exercise following a couple of extreme losses early in the tournament. I plead guilty to being way too confident and not managing my risk so it should have been expected that I would pay. On the plus side those losses made me re-focus and May became my best ever month so once again every cloud seems to have a silver lining.

So why am I posting now?

Well I've just bought an ipad and thought I'd check out how easy it is to post from tapping away whilst watching TV. If this looks have decent when I get to look at it on a PC then this maybe the way forward as finding the time to fire up the computer and login etc. was just becoming too time consuming.

Now, how do I get someone to write this stuff for me? :-)

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Sunday, 14 March 2010

Kolkata v Bangalore - LIVE From 10.00am

Friday, 12 March 2010

Next LIVE Event


With the IPL now underway, it would be a shame not to cover at least one of the games on the opening weekend.
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With this in mind, let's give the Kolkata v Bangalore game a go on Sunday morning. The match is due to start at 10.30am but I'll be commencing my coverage from 10 o'clock.
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I'm trying to work my way into the tournament slowly but by then I think I'll be up to top speed!
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Hopefully see you then :-)
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Sunday, 7 March 2010

Opportunity Knocks


Christmas has come early! After weeks of speculation, it was finally revealed this week that the IPL (Indian Premier League) will be broadcast on ITV 4 throughout March and April. With it being a 60 match tournament, not having access to a 'live' feed would have been a serious handicap, but there's no need for me to fret anymore - Lalit Modi stuck to his word. Hopefully the extra work that I've conducted in analysis and a new found confidence in the way I trade will provide the results that will kick-start my cricket season. If you've not watched/traded Twenty20 cricket before then it's well worth a look - it has the perfect combination of being highly volatile whilst at the same time the markets squelch with liquidity.....mmmmm.
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Following my last post I've also decided to continue with covering some of the matches but I'll probably invite those of you happy to participate to go 'unmoderated'. This will hopefully promote more discussion during the quiet periods and allow me to concentrate on my trading a little more.
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Roll on Friday - I can't wait!
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Monday, 22 February 2010

Scratching My Head


When I came up with the idea of covering events LIVE on this blog, the sport I expected to be featuring the most was cricket - especially Twenty20 cricket. Afterall, this is where 80% of my profits come from and where I feel my knowledge of the markets and the sport itself is at it's best.
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With this in mind you'll have to forgive me for feeling a little deflated after I covered the T20 game between Pakistan and England last Friday - it just didn't work!
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Don't get me wrong, thanks to the 29 of you who did attend, but it would seem that I hadn't realised how much thought and effort went into my decisions. With it also being quite a speedy game, trying to trade and type just didn't mix and in the end I gave neither 100%. If I'm honest, I probably missed a host of opportunities as I was too busy concentrating on adding a capital letter to a noun or correcting a spelling mistake!
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So, I have a dilemma. The cricket season is about to kick-off big style with the IPL, the T20 World Cup and the all new, singing and dancing Friends Provident T20 tournament on the horizon. I want to keep the coverage going but I also don't want to jeopardise my profits.
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What do I do? Answers on a postcard....
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Friday, 19 February 2010

England v Pakistan - LIVE From 1.45pm

Wednesday, 17 February 2010

Next LIVE Event


After last weeks hectic round of Premier League darts matches I'm very pleased to say that the next live event I'll be covering will be a game of cricket!
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With the T20 World Cup taking place in the West Indies during April/May, many International teams are currently trying to cram in a few warm-up games wherever they can. As the IPL will consume most of the cricketing calendar over the next couple of months, England and Pakistan have taken the opportunity to meet up in Dubai on Friday. The weather is not often a problem there so I'm confident we'll get a full game!
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The match starts at 2pm but I'll be here from 1.45pm. I really need to pick up my performance as until now February has been far from kind.
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Thursday, 11 February 2010

Premier League Darts - LIVE from 7.00pm

Monday, 8 February 2010

Next LIVE Event


Pure greed ensured that I had my most miserable weekend for sometime. Not only did Wales go down to England in the rugby (which is bad enough on it's own) but for some reason I managed to squander a decent profit in the One Day International between Australia and the West Indies AND go all-in on a whim that Scotland would give the French a run for their money at Murrayfield. On both occasions I was left with the dreaded phrase,"how did I let that happen?" running through my head.
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So after my best ever January, I'm now playing catchup in a month that occupies my quiet time of the year. Not ideal, but how can I let this spoil my plans for my next LIVE event? The show must go on!
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With this in mind I hope you can join me on Thursday evening for the kick-off of the 2010 Premier League darts season. I'm not going to kid you that it will be a trading masterclass - it's won't be - but I do enjoy this format and the high paced action always throws up decent money making opportunities.
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Coverage will start on my blog from 7pm.
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As a side note - after the New Orleans Saints stunning victory in the Superbowl, maybe I should re-think my playoff ranking system? :-)
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Tuesday, 2 February 2010

Value Seeker


I was hoping to cover the Twenty20 International between Australia and Pakistan on Friday morning but unfortunately Caden has been summonsed for a hospital check-up. Nothing to worry about I hope, but he does seem to be getting out of breath very quickly after little effort for a 2 year old. Perhaps we're just hyper-sensitive or maybe he just takes after his Dad?!?
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Whilst I decide on what will be my next live event, why don't you find out your Risk Intelligence Quotient? That sounds a bit posh, but in layman's terms it's your ability to estimate probabilities accurately. The test takes about 10 minutes and gives you a score out of 100. As this ability would seem key to becoming a successful trader I'm keen to find out what your scores are - are you lousy traders getting the expected poor marks and are you superstars getting perfect scores?
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It's interesting stuff but let's see if there's any truth behind it.
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Wednesday, 27 January 2010

Team Work


Trading the NFL LIVE on Sunday night turned out to be good fun and if the reader statistics are to be believed, it would appear that 53 of you joined me to watch the game. Those are pretty good numbers which gives me encouragement that quite a few of you like the idea of me giving opinions as I trade.
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As for the match itself, it started the way I expected with the Colts finding it difficult to break down the Jets defense and I was able to capitalise on this to end up with a medium green figure. Unfortunately, the Jets couldn't keep up their good start but fair play to Cassini for forecasting a comeback by the home team - it ended almost bang on his pre-match prediction of a 12 point difference. If you'd like to see exactly what was said then you can review the comments at anytime by going to the post and clicking on the section under the heading. Thanks to those of you who took the time out to be there - I really enjoyed it.
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My trading calendar looks a bit thin this week so it's likely that the next event won't be until the beginning of February. If you want to make sure don't miss it then why don't you sign up for my updates?
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Sunday, 24 January 2010

Jets @ Colts - LIVE from 7.45pm

Saturday, 23 January 2010

Next LIVE Event


Thanks to everyone that attended my first event last night. I really enjoyed it but only time will tell if it will have an affect on my trading results. Obviously maintaining my profits comes first, but if I'm honest I think I'd have lost money on that game anyway - it just didn't fit the profile of the type of game that pays off. In fact I might have lost less last night due to the distraction of blogging at the same time!
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I hope those of you who did follow my commentary had fun though. The idea is that it should add to the experience of following the event and if you can pick up any pointers along the way then great.
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So, what's next? Well, with the NFL playoffs reaching it's peak it would be criminal not to cover at least one match so my next LIVE event will be........
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NEW YORK JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
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Prior to the start of the playoffs this is how I ranked the top 12 teams (Betfair odds at the time in brackets) :
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1. New York Jets (48)
2. Green Bay Packers (22)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (44)
4. Baltimore Ravens (34)
5. San Diego Chargers (5.60)
6. New England Patriots (15.50)
7. Indianapolis Colts (4)
8. Philadelphia Eagles (32)
9. Minnesota Vikings (9.20)
10. Dallas Cowboys (13.50)
11. Arizona Cardinals (32)
12. New Orleans Saints (5.80)
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Some surprising positions there like New Orleans & Cincinnati!
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With the Jets the outsiders of the bunch I'm delighted they've got this far but can they go all the way?
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Kick off is at 8pm on Sunday 24th January, but coverage will start on my blog from 7.45pm.
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Friday, 22 January 2010

Munster v Northampton - LIVE From 7.30pm

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Thursday, 21 January 2010

First LIVE Event


Thanks to you all for your enthusiastic reaction to my last post. It's great to be welcomed back.
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Okay, let's get this party started but before we do I'd like to make it clear how i plan to make this work.
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The LIVE blog isn't meant to be a chat room. It's a place where you'll be able to observe my thoughts whilst I'm trading during an event. Occasionally, I'll look to interact (e.g. ask for your opinion/feedback) but a lot of the time you'll just see me posting what I think will happen, what I intend to do or anything else that's on my mind at the time.
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Please also bear in mind that I'll only be able to reply to a certain amount of questions when an event is in-play as I'll be working at the same time! If you leave any comments I'll try my best to reply to as many as I can, but this will depend on the number of requests and on how busy I am. In a worst case scenario, I may suspend readers from posting any comments so that you're not left waiting for a reply that is unlikely to appear.
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Whilst I'll also try to update the LIVE blog frequently I'm not committing to updating every couple of minutes. At busy times there could be substantial gaps in my posts but if this is likely then I'll try to let you know in advance. Try to think of it as a companion!
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Lastly, I don't want to misguide you into thinking I'll be detailing every trade that I place. Sometimes the market moves so fast I have to react and this is more likely to happen in fast moving sports such as Rugby and Darts. Instead I'll be attempting to paint a more general picture of what's going on and hopefully you'll find something in there that can be of benefit!
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Above all else, please don't hold me liable for any losses you may incur from following my actions. I make plenty of mistakes so if you listen to any of my observations then it has to be your decision as to whether you place any trades and this must be conducted at entirely your own risk.
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Phew! That's about it, so let's see how this idea works out.
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My first LIVE event will be........
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MUNSTER v NORTHAMPTON
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Kick off is at 8pm on Friday 22nd January, but coverage will start on my blog from 7.30pm.
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I hope you can make it, and it'll be interesting to see if any other bloggers introduce this approach over the coming weeks.
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Tuesday, 19 January 2010

I'm Back


It's been a while! It's seems a little strange to be back and posting on here after nearly a year so I'm really hoping some of you are still out there :-)
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So, why have I returned?
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Well, before I answer it's worthwhile remembering why I stopped in the first place. At the time I felt it was important to take a break (from blogging - not trading) as the content of what I was writing had served it's purpose. In addition, a number of similar blogs were appearing and I felt the concept was starting to get a little stale. I made a promise to myself at the time that if I did come back to the blogosphere then it would only be to do something different. I had no idea what the guise would be and I didn't know if that time would ever come, but over the last few weeks some thoughts have started turning in my head which have got me excited again.
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What are they?
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As previous readers will know, I'm predominantly an in-play sports trader whose majority of profits come from one day cricket. I love in-play trading but one of the problems I had last year was that I often felt detached with anyone reading and as a result ended up writing the same type of things as with my shocking memory I'd forget what I'd done and why etc. This was all well and good, but in a perfect world I'd have liked to have communicated at the time, whilst in the moment. I could have used Twitter, MSN or utilised Forums much more but none of those ticked the boxes as I felt I wouldn't be able to control the content of what I wanted to say or manage the participants who would be involved. In the end, I didn't pursue these thoughts any further.
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That is, until now.
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The truth is I've now discovered a platform that will allow me to deliver what I've just described and I can do this all from the comfort of my very own blog. In effect, I intend to publish a LIVE blog as I trade LIVE events and have you for company if you wish to join me. It would be for a trial period, but my longer term intention would be to identify individuals with a professional outlook who could form a small team committed to increasing trading profits. I like the company and trading can be lonely especially on an event that lasts a few hours :-)
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This may not work, and I'm conscious that I don't want it to affect my trading, but I've seen enough to think to myself, "why not give it a go?"
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So, the next bit's down to you. There's two things I'd like to know; are you still out there and would you be interested in reading/participating during live events?
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Please leave a reply in the comments section of this post and if there are enough of you interested we'll kick something off soon.
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All the best, as always.
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Mark
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