Thursday, 26 April 2012

IPL - Week 3

It's not just the markets that have been swinging during the third week of the IPL - so have my moods! From elation one minute to despair the next, it's been am constant struggle to stay on my preferred path of being balanced as each match has thrown up twist after twist.

It only takes one small lapse of concentration and a whole days work can go down the drain so it's no wonder that I'm feeling worn out. Is anyone else feeling the same? I'm guessing there's a few of you out there in the same boat, but there is some good news - we're nearing the half way point of the tournament! Crazy to think that after 34 games there's such a long way to go and I'm now very glad that I booked a family holiday for the last week of May. I'll definitely need time to recover.

Anyway, enough whinging - it hasn't been that bad - has it? Well, it's been profitable but I seem to be vulnerable to Tuesdays as I once again fell foul to another large loss in the match between Pune and Delhi.  Opposing Kevin Pietersen and Virender Sehwag (again!) just as spin bowling was due to slow them down seemed a good idea at the time, but alas it wasn't to be as a flurry of 4's and 6's smashed my book and gave me little time to soften the damage. Ouch.

Luckily, yesterday was better and I recouped the loss and a bit more in the game between Punjab and Mumbai. It was a strange one, with large amounts of money wanting to oppose the supposed favourites at different stages, and the bowlers seemingly happy to oblige with very helpful bowling.  Here's a few snippets courtesy of Cricinfo and their ball by ball commentary (click to enlarge images) .

Maybe it wasn't their day, but with Mumbai needing 32 to win off the final 12 balls surely that could be defended.  Unfortunately not for Punjab as the 19th over was dispatched for 27 runs and the final over became irrelevant:

Week 4 for me was going to be about getting back to fundamentals, but after reading that lot again, maybe I shouldn't bother?


Thursday, 19 April 2012

IPL - Week 2

In comparison to week 1, for me week 2 of the IPL has been a struggle with lapses of concentration more frequent amongst the seemingly constant stream of matches. With at least 1 game a day until the latter stages of the tournament there's little room for downtime so it's of no surprise really that I suffered a maximum loss on Tuesday. These things happen and even though most of the loss has been recovered in the two wins I've had since, it goes to show how gruelling a test this is and that you're only ever a short distance away from making some costly mistakes if you're not on the ball 100% of the time.

So after 15 days of the tournament this is how my progress now compares to what I did in 2011 (click to enlarge):

Even though I'm ahead of last years figures it's uncanny how each line is following the other. A self fulfilling prophecy or is it just that I trade each segment of the competition in the same fashion?  I don't know the answer, but I'll be monitoring things closely to try and make sure I remain in front. My rather optimistic target figure now seems a long way away so I'll just try and focus on each event as it comes and hopefully my p&l will take care of the rest.

From a cricketing perspective there was one standout highlight this week - Chris Gayle hitting 5 consecutive 6's against Pune Warriors.  In their quest to chase down Pune's total of 182, Bangalore had been wallowing at 76/3 from 12 overs before the assault came.  Incredibly, despite needing 107 off the last 48 balls to win they did it.  If you missed the carnage here's a glimpse of what happened:


Thursday, 12 April 2012

IPL - Week 1

It may sound daft considering how much I go on about it, but I've really started to understand the importance the Indian Premier League means to my year and I'm so glad I concentrated on how I would treat things differently this year before the tournament started.

We're only 1 week and 12 matches into the 76 game tournament but already it's been clear to me that trades need to be handled with careful timing and I need to be alert to other factors which I may have previously missed.

I alluded to this on twitter this week and got accused of 'dick waving' when I advised others who were trying to use normal cricket knowledge to think about this. That wasn't my intention as I was simply trying to point out that things can turn around very quickly (more than the usual T20 match) and it can pay off to be alert to what the players are intending to do.  Confused?  Well I was accused of being cryptic too so to help take a quick look at this clip from the 2nd innings from match 9 - in particular the last over of the match (skip to 4.40mins):

I had a good inkling who was going to bowl the last over and I was confident on how the finish would pan out.  The result on this occasion went my way but this is only one example from a smorgasbord full of opportunities that have arisen.  With so many matches left there will be plenty more.

Now a post of mine without a graph wouldn't be right so to finish off here's one of my progress to date in comparison to 2011. It also has quite an audacious pre-tournament target on there that I'm trying to keep up with.  So far to go, but a good start (click to enlarge).


Tuesday, 10 April 2012

Geeks Toy v1.2 Released

The Geek has put version 1.2 onto general release this morning and has retired all other versions with immediate effect so give yourself some extra time if you're planning on trading today.

With 2 IPL matches ahead I'm lucky that I noticed this early this morning as I wouldn't have wanted to have to mess around too close to the beginning of the games, so if you're in the same boat then don't leave things too late.

Due to amount of work that's gone into this release he's also planning to start charging for the product if users don't plug the toy in the next 48 hours.  In his words.....

To be fair, the software is extremely good and especially valuable (in my opinion) for in play betting so I'm more than happy to give it a strong word of recommendation although if he did start charging I'm sure I'd pay.

So, what are you waiting for?  If you're not already using it you can download it here.

If for some reason this is not your thing then you could give Bet Angel a try.  Another very good product.  The try or buy page for that can be found here.


Monday, 2 April 2012

Over The Line

Am I glad that's over!?!  It was tough but after going back to basics half way through the month I'm glad to say I ended the month in profit.  It was still well below what I'd set out to achieve but much better than what it could have been, so I'll take what I've got and move on.  My last pieces of action for March consisted of two T20 internationals on Friday which ended with one good win plus one small loss, and also 2 Aviva Premiership rugby matches on Saturday which finished with the same results.  My break even p&l graph therefore ended looking like this:

When I was struggling, one of the anonymous comments I received focused on monthly targets being too short a period to measure of results.  Of course, on their own they are but long term readers will know that I monitor the bigger picture closely too. Now that Quarter 1 of 2012 is complete I can compare it to 2011 to see if I'm still moving in the right direction.  How better to do this than by showing another graph? (click to enlarge):

All in all, for the same period my p&l is showing a growth of 24.89% when compared to last year. As January 2011 was when I turned my attention to gambling full time this is a relatively direct comparison, so it's even more pleasing to see that I'm ahead when I consider there was no Cricket World Cup.  But how important has cricket become to me? Cue graph.... (click to..blah blah):

By the looks of it - very!  But again the pleasing thing is that over the last 3 months I've traded less matches for more profit - 54 in 2012 versus 67 in 2011.  With there being 76 IPL matches over the course of the next 2 months it all get very busy so it's crucial I concentrate on doing things right and not lose momentum.  It's something I tell myself every year but it doesn't make it an easier - it's a huge test of stamina and the IPL needs to be treated with more caution than with other matches (make of that what you will).

Now that my March recovery is over I'll probably go back to my infrequent posts due to time restrictions (Nic has me on a curfew) but I hope you've enjoyed my worried rambling over the last couple of weeks.  I really did think I was in a hole but getting my feelings out on here helped like I hoped it would.

I'm sure I'll be dropping the odd comment on twitter over the course of the next 9 weeks so if you'd like to follow me you can do so here.

Some of you maybe wondering why I'm not including every sport (inc my shares) in the comparison graph above. The reason is that my activity in other markets is very small, but if the curiosity is too much here's a graph comparing it all...