Friday, 30 December 2011

A Very Happy New Year!

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Just a quick note to let you all know that Kobe Iverson was born yesterday at 2.20pm, weighing exactly 8lb.  Mother and baby doing well ;-)

Thanks to all of you that have offered best wishes on Twitter and through the blog - they really have been appreciated.

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Monday, 26 December 2011

Get Tracking

I hope you're enjoying the holidays!  If your house is anything like mine then you'll still have enough biscuits and chocolate left to see you through to June.  I guess the diet will have to wait!

Anyway, just a quick post to let you know I've decided to make my Betfair monitoring tool available to anyone who wants it.  I received a few emails from readers following my last post asking how they could implement something similar, so rather than talk through each step I've knocked up a page where anyone interested can acquire it. It really has changed the way I trade in-play on cricket but it can be used for any Betfair market.  For example, if you're a horse racing trader would you be interested in reviewing how your p&l fluctuated in the 10 minutes before a race?  The time intervals set for recording your position can be modified to whatever you like and it's easy to setup although you do need a Betfair account, Microsoft Excel and be a Bet Angel Professional subscriber.

Still there?  Then either click the banner above or click here.

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Saturday, 24 December 2011

Merry Christmas!

I'd like to wish all my blog readers and Twitter followers a very happy Christmas, and really hope Santa thinks you've all been good!

A couple of days off for me and it's all systems on standby for the ultimate Christmas gift - odds on he arrives tomorrow!

Until my next post, here's a few snapshots of my p&l progress from a few in-play big bash games so far (click on images to enlarge). Overall it's been a good start but I think I need to keep an eye on getting into negative positions to early in the first innings.
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Monday, 19 December 2011

Go With Flow

If people ask how I'm doing or how much money I've made, all I normally say is that I've not had a losing month for 5 and a half years. Of course there have been months where I've made next to nothing and others where I've made a bundle, but the number one aim I've had at the beginning of each one is 'don't lose!'.  In fact it's become like a mission statement to me.  The thought of a losing month (which can obviously happen) fills me with dread and I'm sure it's because of this that I've been able to continue my progression, albeit more slowly but perhaps steadily than some others.

Why am I bringing this up now?  Well to be honest I had a shocking weekend where I just wasn't mentally right.  I threw away quite a lot of money on a number of events and looking back I think I was trying to do too much.  Losing was my way of telling myself to take a break.

I've known this was a danger for sometime but despite this I tend to push myself until something like this happens, but I don't want you to think that I'm reckless in my approach.  The opposite is true - I would like to explain how I recognise this behaviour before it becomes a problem and how I go about changing it.

Let me explain.  Firstly, as I've mentioned in other blog posts. I create a diary each month and record the events I intend to trade. This is helpful as it defines a plan that I can revolve my life around. With so much sport on TV these days it's possible to be tapping away for 24 hours a day but is 'all' of that time really going to be productive?  Instead, my diary highlights what I would consider opportunities and and in turn backs up a very effective discipline cycle - if it's not in the diary I don't bet.

Now for the point of this post.  In addition to my diary I also produce a flow of how much I expect to earn from each sport based on the number of events during that month.  Sounds simple right?  That's because it is!  But....there is one important point - you need to have a good idea of how much each event is worth to you.  How do you do this?  Well, if you keep detailed records of your betting activity you already have the information - it's just a case of adding up your total profit and dividing it by the number of markets.  This gives you your average profit per market.  To illustrate my point, here's my 'flow' for December (if you click on the picture it should enlarge):



Guess where I went wrong on the weekend?  That's right - a few maximum losses on the darts, but by filling in my flow it's allowed me to realise that I've gone off track.  However, it's not all doom and gloom as I still have time to do something about it whilst at the same time cheer myself up by identifying that I've already surpassed my expectations on Rugby and the NFL.

There will be some who advise that setting targets is not a good idea and that a bet is a bet if it offers value.  I can totally see their point, but when I make a bet I'm not only thinking of that, I'm betting on what my emotions will be like afterwards and by doing this it helps me to remain in control.  Maybe something like this can help you too?

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Thursday, 15 December 2011

Big Bash

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No signs of the baby so I've yet another reason to get excited - the start of the KFC Big Bash!  Yep, the Australian Domestic T20 competition starts at 8am (GMT) tomorrow and with 31 games scheduled between now and the end of January it will definitely warm up the cold dark mornings.
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There is a small snag - it's not being televised in the UK - but if you have a Betfair account or a bookmakers account (e.g. Bet365) then you can watch all of the games via their live video service.  To be fair, I had no problems trading off these pictures last year with the delay at most 3-4 seconds behind, so I'm expecting the same again.  In addition, liquidity was also surprisingly good so don't let that put you off either if you're thinking of taking a look.
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The IPL is still a welcome addition to the cricket calendar but I've a lot more confidence in the Aussie equivalent, so here's to hoping that I can end the year on a high.  I've no strong feelings on any of the outright markets but will be sharing some of my thoughts on twitter on a match by match basis, so feel welcome to follow me by clicking the link above.
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Merry Christmas to you all!
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(I'm getting very festive)
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Thursday, 8 December 2011

Golden Arrows

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The lead up to Christmas always gets me looking forward to new challenges but before I can switch my attention to what lies ahead, there's the traditional delve into the PDC World Darts Championship.
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I've a soft spot for this competition as over the years it's remained a constant in my trading calendar and as a result I've witnessed many matches where the impossible seems to have happened. Great entertainment, and with the crowds joining in with the festivities it always puts me in a good mood.  
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With this outlook fresh my mind, I decided to scan my hard drive this week for recordings I made a couple of years ago that helped me analyse and improve my performance in the markets.  Luckily enough I came across the following video of a match between Co Stompe and Mark Dudbridge.  If I remember correctly this snippet is from the first set where I was expecting a 'swing trade' opportunity to present itself and sure enough it came along.  I've decided to share it as if you've ever fancied taking a look at the Darts doing this sort of thing is a good way to start.  It's a very quick in-play sport so you need an idea of what you're going to do before you get involved, but if you're patient and remain disciplined there can be lots of money to be made.
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Other news......Nic had an unplanned scan yesterday as part of her 38 week check-up.  We were in for a shock!  Not a bad one this time, but it appears that our little princess has turned into a little prince!  Crikey - wasn't expecting that, but fortunately we don't have to redecorate, just swap pinks for blues.
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Hopefully all goes well on the big day....anytime now.....
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