Back From The Brink

Since Last Post P/L: £134.23

Monthly P/L: £304.01

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What a relief! Getting through the weekend with a healthy profit and finishing January with a respectable total has given me a feeling of sheer joy. It could easily have gone tits up but I played my cards right with the cricket and escaped with a solid gain. A 4% growth for the month is a lot less than the 10% I was hoping for, but this game is a marathon rather than a sprint and it's all about grinding out results.

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Here's my latest results:

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Cricket

South Africa v West Indies : £139.68

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Soccer

Leicester v Crystal Palace : £5.45

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Now some of you might be wondering why I've bothered to dabble on the soccer markets yet again (after so many failed attempts) and the answer is that the kind people at Soccer Mystic have provided me with a trial of their product. Despite my small loss, the first signs were encouraging so I intend to give the software a good going over on Sunday. I have a lot of faith in the guys that brought us Bet Angel so I'm sure there's a way to use the program to turn a profit, though the hard bit will be finding out how.

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Twitchy Bum Time

Since Last Post P/L: £201.34
Monthly P/L: £169.78
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Oh crap! I've got my head in my hands as I'm dangerously close to ending my first month since I started trading with a loss. The NFL playoffs once again proved to be my undoing as I got decision after decision wrong and before I knew it I'd reached my maximum stop loss figure.
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Sunday's Results:
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NFL
San Diego @ New England : £194.88
NFL Season 07/08 Superbowl Winner : £23.47
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Cricket
South Africa v West Indies : £17.01
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There is a slight positive. I felt a little uneasy about Green Bay turning over New York, so before the kick off I decided to spread my position over the three outsiders. It was a lucky move as the Giants are the ones progressing to the Superbowl so at least I have a chance of getting back some profit when they go up against New England. This won't affect my January P/L though as this matchup isn't taking place until the 3rd February.
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So how can I ensure I don't self destruct over the next few days? Well, sitting on my hands is one approach but as the 3rd ODI between the Saffers and the Windies is on Sunday I'll probably get involved. I don't want to ruin my perfect record so I'm going to have to concentrate 100% to stay in profit. Wish me luck!
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Break In Service

Since Last Post P/L: £43.89

Monthly P/L: £371.12

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It's wet, it's dark, it's cold and it's depressing. After a fantastic Christmas, January is the last thing you need and it's no surprise to me that I've found things tough going over the last week. At this time of the year it's seems much easier to let the gremlins get into the mind and to become pessimistic. To this end, I've found myself giving reassurances that things will get better and that this was to be expected. This may be the case but it doesn't mean I like it and I really can't wait for the warm, balmy summer nights to come back.

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I'm still aiming to make a 10% growth on my trading bank by the end of the month, but this is beginning to look like a very unlikely target. Here's a roundup of my results since my last post:

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NFL

NY Giants @ Dallas : £137.02

NFL Season 07/08 Super Bowl Winner : £29.92

San Diego @ Indianapolis : £50.31

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Rugby Union

Wasps v Scarlets : £13.42

Clermont v Munster : £39.86

Castres v Leeds : £24.19

Glasgow v Saracens : £27.27

Dragons v Perpignan : £51.09

Leicester v Leinster : £25.92

Munster v Wasps : £49.39

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Quit a lot of work for no return with the NFL Playoffs really giving me a headache last Sunday. You'll also notice that my consistency with Rugby Union has been letting me down. Is it because I'm using far bigger stakes than what I was using this time last year? Have the rugby in-play markets (for domestic competitions) the liquidity I need? I'm not sure of the answers yet so I'm going to be very cautious between now and the end of the month.

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Sport Of Kings?

Since Last Post P/L: £121.90
Monthly P/L: £415.01

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Despite the dreadful weather my day did brighten up after an ominous start.

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Whilst waiting for the first Heineken Cup match of the day I decided to take a look at the Horse Racing to review a few in-running strategies that had been going through my head. The first race was the 12.40 at Kempton and Red Flare went off as the market leader at 3.00 on Betfair. My strategy was based on the favourite so even though I ended up not placing a bet I was always keeping an eye on his progress and for the most part he was in with a chance...until....the last hurdle. The poor bugger hit the fence flat out and suffered an horrific fall from which he wouldn't recover.

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This bothered me. I've been a fan of the sport since an early age but as more of my time has been taken up watching other things, I'd forgotten how gruesome it can be. Having horses die for my entertainment is not what I call fun and whilst I don't pretend to know all the answers, I'd seen enough to switch channels. If you asked me now to describe my relationship with Horse Racing in real life terms, I'd say we were having a break to see how things work out.

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Leinster v Toulouse

I'm guessing that my head must have still been somewhere else when I sat down to trade this one. I strayed from my game plan early on, lost touch with the match and it wasn't long before I was looking at a sizeable loss. Fortunately, I was able to improve my discipline and by half time accepted a loss of £58.20. It was time for a distraction, so I headed off to Swansea to watch the Ospreys take on Gloucester.

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Seattle @ Green Bay

The Ospreys didn't let me down and even though I got drenched, watching them beat the Guinness Premiership leaders certainly made up for it. After a quick shower, I was back at my desk to get involved in the the NFL and within a few minutes I was convinced it wasn't going to be my day. Two quick scores put Seattle 14-0 up and my fancied Green Bay were in a right mess. My outright bet on the Superbowl winner seemed to be going down the drain and I was struggling to take a hold on the match - could it get any worse? To my relief, the Packers then started to up their game and not long after they'd managed to pull the score level. It was a cracking first half, I'd ridden the wave and come out the other side - my profit on the match ended at £180.10.

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2nd & 8

Since Last Post P/L: £253.72

Monthly P/L: £293.11

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So much for my rankings eh? My two outside tips for Superbowl glory (Pittsburgh & Tampa Bay) have already bitten the dust and my eggs now firmly sit in a Green Bay & Indianapolis basket! After this demoralising start I've decided not to add to my position in the outright market but instead I'll continue to try and knock up some profits through trading the matches individually. A wise move I think, as this weekend has once again reminded me how difficult it is to be a straight up punter. Now that I think about it, I don't even know what I'm going to be doing in the next 10 minutes let alone who's going to win an American Football match!

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Fortunately, when I stuck to the tried and tested methods I made some good gains:

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NFL

NFL Season 07/08 - Superbowl Winner : £6.61

Washington @ Seattle : £61.89

NY Giants @ Tampa Bay : £168.11

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Trading NFL games is good fun and in my opinion it's one of the better sports to start on, so if you're new to this type of thing I'd recommend having a look at next week's games whilst they're in-play to see what you think. Unfortunately, it's a big downer that the season only lasts for 6 months of the year.

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In what could be considered a quiet week, I also had a look at the weekends Guinness Premiership rugby games:

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Rugby Union

Bath v Gloucester : £10.20

Harlequins v Leicester : £20.13

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Both were pretty drab affairs in the first half so there weren't too many opportunities to profit. On a brighter note though, I'm off to watch the mighty Ospreys play Gloucester on Saturday in the Heineken Cup and I'm sure that one will have alot more action.

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That's all I have to report for now so good luck for the week ahead!

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P.S. - You can tell I've started back to work as my posts are much shorter :-)

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In The End Zone

Since Last Post P/L: £39.39
Monthly P/L: £39.39

Okay, I'll get the boring bit out of the way first - the PDC Darts Final was a bit of a let down. Unfortunately, Kirk Shepherd was unable to reproduce his scintillating form and John Part made things look very easy to record a 3rd World Title victory. As the match went mostly in one direction it turned out to be a difficult one to trade so I had to make do with a £39.39 profit. Nothing to set the world on fire but it's a positive result to start the New Year and I'm happy with that.

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Now for the exciting bit. The NFL playoffs have arrived and it's one of my most favourite times of the year as I absolutely love the occasion these games bring. After not being too wide of the mark when I constructed my own rankings at this stage last season, I've decided to do the same this year now that we're down to the final 12.

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Here's how I rate the remaining teams and their current Betfair odds are in brackets:

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1. New England (1.87)

2. Indianapolis (7.4)

3. Green Bay (14)

4. Pittsburgh (65)

5. Dallas (8.4)

6. Tampa Bay (90)

7. Seattle (55)

8. Jacksonville (22)

9. Washington (65)

10. NY Giants (85)

11. Tennessee (160)

12. San Diego (24)

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There's no doubt that New England, after a perfect 16-0 Regular Season, are the stand out team but at 1.87 they're too short to support at the moment. They'll have 2 tough games ahead of them if they're to make the Super Bowl so I'd wait a while to see how they go first.

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Instead, I've decided to make some small plays on Indianapolis @ 7, Green Bay @ 16, Pittsburgh @ 55 & Tampa Bay @ 80. Unfortunately, those of you with sharp minds will notice that three of these are already trading at higher prices than those I took last night :-(

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My strategy will be to review my positions after each round and to invest any in-play winnings into greening my book. Good luck if you decide to get involved and roll on Saturday!

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