Thursday, 22 July 2010

The Better Team Won

It’s a common phrase used nearly all the time by TV pundits, but the question I like to ask is, “did they really?”

First impressions can be misleading, as our memories have the convenient ability to block out certain inalienable truths and to only recall the key moments of an event or the extraordinary emotions that we associated with them. Try thinking back to the last time your favourite team experienced a sporting high – were they really that good? Or was it just a moment of genius or perhaps your fondness for the result that has given you that impression?

Why is this important? Well these misconceptions can lead to inefficient markets as odds compilers are commonly influenced by past results and not necessarily past performance. Spotting these inefficiencies can therefore have a hugely positive effect on future trading results.

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7 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think you are onto something here...but is there anyone who attempts to quantify the performance? Are there such data available?

Mark Iverson said...

It's not really a new idea - plenty of people already do it when handicapping horse races etc. but the idea behind the post is to highlight that not every loss should be deemed as a negative experience.

There is such a thing as a 'good loss'.

All the best,

Mark

Ross Taylor said...

For example, England in the World Cup. 3rd Favourites???

Andy Rush said...

Hi Mark,

I'd like to invite you and your readers to look at my horse race betting system that I started running earlier this year. It differs from some systems in that it selects horses that are considered to be over priced, so it is useful for people who want to back to win or for traders also. The selections are posted live to my website http://thedailytipster.com and I report the results and progress on my blog http://thedailytipsterblog.wordpress.com

I have put up links to your website on both of my sites. Would you mind putting up links to my sites on your blog?

Any comments or suggestions would be welcome. I started the system at the start of the year and so far it has produced consistent profits of 10%.

Thanks,
Andy.

stevethemook said...

Hi mate

I've recently had to move my blog and I've created a new list of fellow bloggers. I've added a link to yours and would be grateful if you could return the favour

Cheers

Steve
www.bestbetfairfootballtrader.com

PS - the "best" bit isn't an ego thing, it's just that I had to come up with a new url thanks to wordpress.com not liking gambling blogs :-(

Mark Iverson said...

Hi guys,

Sorry for the delay in replying.

Andy - Good luck. I'll add a link to your blog tonight.

Steve - No problems. I'll add a link to your tonight too.

All the best,

Mark

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