Wednesday, 18 May 2011

Time To Grow

As many of you will know the majority of my betting profits come from cricket, and it's with some reluctance that I admit that over the last few years the amount each match has been worth to me has remained the same.  It's been easy for me to track this figure as all I've needed to do is divide my total profit by the total number of markets and what I've been left with is my average profit/loss per market.
So why is this and why has it taken me this long to promise myself that I'll do something about it?
The first issue is that until now I've not really needed more per market.  That sounds daft but what I mean is that I've just played 'more markets'.  In 2008 I traded 85 matches, 173 in 2009 and 182 in 2010, so my increase in profits has been solely down to an increase in match volume.  As I'm now full time I expect the number of matches I bet on this year to rise to around 230 and whilst I could continue to follow the 'volume' path I'm aware that I need to work on maximising my return from each event if I'm going to continue growing.
Okay, so now I've explained the situation, how do I go about improving things?  Well, I'm a big believer in tracking the key statistics; Win %, Average Win & Average Loss.  These three indicators have really helped me to manage my performance and have given me a glimpse of the big picture when individual events haven't gone my way.  Of course, each one can't be measured without consideration for the others as profitability is a direct outcome of how these three figures interact with each other.
A quick example in case I've lost you.  Which following scenario would you prefer over the course of 100 markets?
Scenario A
Win % - 75%
Average Win - £100
Average Loss - £150
Scenario B
Win % - 50%
Average Win - £150
Average Loss - £100
Yep, you should have chosen Scenario A as in this case you'd have made £3750 profit compared to just £2500 in Scenario B.  Despite your average loss being much higher than your average win your win % of 75% makes it the better option.
There are many possible scenarios but having these numbers in your head when betting on an event definitely helps, but for what it's worth my scenario involving cricket has remained relatively constant.  As I don't want to disclose my exact profit/loss figures the following average win/loss figures are not exact, but they do show how my patterns have panned out over the last few years:
Markets - 85
Win % - 80.52%
Average Win - £56
Average Loss - £44
Markets - 173 
Win % - 76.88%
Average Win - £49
Average Loss - £51
Markets - 182
Win % - 76.92%
Average Win - £47
Average Loss - £53
The good news first.  My win % has remained high! The bad news?  I've struggled to keep my average win higher than my average loss.  This all means that the value of each event has remained the same as these amounts haven't got much bigger either.
This year I'm doing slightly better and with more markets I should make more money, but I still haven't grown at the rate I'd have liked.  After much analysis I've come to the conclusion that my staking is to blame.  In the beginning, things were pretty straightforward - as my bank grew I would adjust my stakes in line with the odds of a selection.  At the end of each month I would readjust my bank and these figures.  Simple eh?  My bets would get bigger and my wins would get larger?  Wrong.  I reached a ceiling that I was comfortable with and despite raising my stake values I found myself using the one below the one I'd supposed to.  This has led to me over-staking and under-staking and not really having a good idea of where I am, but I think I have a solution.
From today I'll be trialling the use of the tick size staking option on the 'Geeks Toy' ( I believe this is available in other software too). The idea is that it will work out my stake size for me based on an assigned value per tick that I'm willing to risk.  Hopefully this will allow me to concentrate 100% on making the right decisions and the rest will take care of itself.  I'll let you know how it goes.   


Paceform said...

Hello Mark.

Thoroughly enjoyed reading the blog - would you mind exchanging links?

Mark Iverson said...

Thanks for the comment!

I've added you to my blog roll.

Good luck!