Monday, 19 May 2008

Not Counting Chickens


Since Last Post P/L: £754.56
Monthly P/L: £2300.25
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Please believe when I say "I know the rest of the year won't be this good!". The IPL has continued to be the vehicle behind my trading good fortune and it will be tough to say goodbye to it when the tournament ends on the 1st June. I don't want to tempt fate but in my opinion it's lived up to the hype with the fans and players all buying into the concept. In short, it's had it all and the hilarious scenes when the ground staff were trying to hold down the covers at the Kolkata v Chennai game yesterday had me crying with laughter - where else can you find entertainment like that?!?
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Everything must come to an end but a quick look at the calendar for June illustrates that it's not all doom and gloom as our own Twenty20 Cup swash buckles it's way into action. There won't be as many games and the weather can always get in the way but it always attracts a lot of interest so I'm hopeful I'll be able to keep up my good form.
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Here's a list of my recent results:
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Cricket

Mumbai v Kolkata : £69.85
Rajasthan v Bangalore : £230.69
Kolkata v Chennai : £130.74
Deccan v Mumbai : £260.36
Bangalore v Delhi : £62.92
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Elsewhere, the Gambling Commission have published their consultation paper into In-Play betting. As all of my punting these days is conducted during whilst an event is taking place, any changes to UK legislation regarding this topic could seriously affect my ability to make profits. Should I be worried?

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Have a read for yourself by clicking here.
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Before you start to take a view, remember that in line with the Gambling Act 2005, the regulatory system has three objectives:
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1. To prevent gambling from being a source of crime or disorder, being associated with crime or disorder or being used to support crime.
2. To ensure that gambling is conducted in a fair and open way.
3. To protect children and other vulnerable persons from being harmed or exploited by gambling.
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Okay, so now that's clear what does it mean? Basically the paper sets out to investigate the issues behind in-play gambling that could be seen to go against the 3 objectives stated above. It highlights the issues separately but the main concerns seem to revolve around the involvement of organised crime playing a part in match fixing and ensuring that punters are aware that they may not be playing on a level field.
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What do I mean by the second comment? Well, from reading the report it appears that the commission are already very much aware that the use of betting software (bots, trading applications etc.) is becoming ever more popular and that individuals are doing whatever they can to source quicker feeds to live events. To me there doesn't appear to be a problem with either of these points (surely it's up to the punter to safeguard themselves as much as possible and accept the risk before placing a bet?) but I suppose they'll be asking the likes of Betfair to do more to make people aware that televised events can be delayed and that others are viewing the data in a different format.
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It'll be interesting to see what comes of this - my only wish being that a common sense approach is taken.
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P.S - As a footnote it's worth remembering that in 2006 thousands of Americans played online poker. Following the introduction of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act there's not so many of them around these days.
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9 comments:

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Anthony said...

Interesting post Mark. It's difficult to prevent anything being a source of crime or disorder (and I'm not refering to some of my terrible trades!). You just have to look back at the floodlight failure fiasco a few years ago (was it at West Ham?). I think the onus is on Betfair to void markets where there are obvious suspicious betting patterns (such as they did with the tennis matches - Davydenko?). As you say, with point 2, they just need to ask everyone to sign or click a disclaimer to accept the fact some people have quicker live feeds or may even be at the event. Finally, I don't think the last point really enters into the equation, as they already do what they can to ensure kids aren't involved in betting.

Mark Iverson said...

Hi Anthony,

I agree with everything you mention. Let's hope common sense wins the day!

All the best,

Mark

Anonymous said...

from the proposals 1.5:"This paper sets out a number of issues relating to in-running betting and asks questions on
which we are seeking further information and evidence. We welcome responses to this
consultation from any person or organisation with an interest in in-running betting. The
result of this consultation could be no change to the existing regulation of in-running
betting. It could result in proposals for licence conditions and/or codes of practice
governing in-running betting. In any event the consultation should improve understanding
on this relatively recent development and the appropriate regulatory framework for it."definitely we need some code of practice like some cock ups by betfair and other bookies

Mark Iverson said...

Hi anonymous,

Thanks for your comments but I believe we should be careful about turning against the hand that feeds us. To date I've not been a victim of Betfair going down etc.(touch wood) but I appreciate that my luck may run out - that's why I take as many precautions as possible to cover my exposure.

Betfair gets plenty of flack when things go wrong (1%) of the time but not many of us shout about how good the service is for the remainder (99%).

Let's try not to forget what life was like B.B. (before Betfair).

All the best,

Mark

Anthony said...

I agree with you Mark. Without Betfair we'd all be doing crap jobs with little return. Actually I still work full time too but my wage is very poor. Let's see what happens over the next few weeks. Betangel are putting a letter together to send to Betfair and I'd imagine they have a fair amount of clout.

Anonymous said...

Hi Mark,

Just wondering in your experience of trading 20/20 games how ften a team trades at 1.01 lay none availabl on the back side and the drifts out.

I'm talking about tonights Bangalor vs Chenai match today.

I was serously tempted to lay at 1.08, this is after the 1.01 lay, but due to my profit being only approx £14 (new to cricket trading).

All I had in my mind was what punt.com had to say in his last post.

I suppose that's how you make big money in this game - i.e. being able to pick out the value bets and knowing when to shove "All-in".

Keeron

Anonymous said...

Excuse the above grammer etc - this is after 7 pints and watching the champs league!!!!

Mark Iverson said...

Hi keeron,

It happens occasionally but not in every game.

What you'll find is that the big players will 'green up' at the end of a match so there'll be quite a bit of money trying to lay late on. This can offer a bit of value should you want to back but be very careful - Twenty20 is one sport that can turn in the space of a couple of deliveries!

Myself, I'm happy to lay at 1.01 and back at 1.03 if I can get it.

Hope this helps.

All the best,

Mark