Argy Bargy

Since Last Post P/L: £185.47
Monthly P/L: £779.63

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For a game that appears to have been resoundingly one sided, how the heck did I manage to suffer such a big loss? You've probably already guessed, the match I'm talking about was the South Africa v Argentina Rugby International which took place in Johannesburg on the weekend. The scoreline ended 63-9 in favour of the Springboks so surely this was a 1.01 train?!?

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No!

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The South Africans pre-match price was 1.05 and although it probably reflected their chance of winning the game, it probably didn't represent value as the Argies are normally a tough nut to crack. Yes, they'd been been buoyed by a recent win over the All Blacks but the situation was different here - this wasn't a Tri-Nations game and the boys in blue and white were fielding a decent team.

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So what did I do wrong?

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My first mistake was that I didn't really have a strategy before the match began. I find taking a view on what I expect to happen - even if that changes later on - extremely helpful. Without that view I can be prone to indecision, which (for me at least) is usually fatal when quick decisions are needed.

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My error was compounded when Argentina started strongly and my lack of control began to breed - a number of heavy tackles were putting the home side on the back foot and following a few infringements the South Americans were able to convert 3 penalty opportunities to open up a 9-0 lead. With 20 minutes gone this was starting to look more of a contest and with memories still fresh in the mind of Argentina beating France on their own patch at the World Cup, the likelihood of an upset began to increase. The odds on the favourites had now drifted to 1.30ish and this is where it went pear shaped.

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The South Africans were attacking so I lumped on and got matched within a second. I'd convinced myself that a score was on the cards but a dropped ball and a 60 metre kick ahead saw the visiting team counter attack and myself rushing for the lay button. A try for Argentina here would have put them 16-0 ahead and the market would have flip-flopped straight away. I admit I panicked, and looked to get out of my position at the nearest possible price. My lay was matched at 1.56.

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I hadn't followed my usual trading plan, had succumbed to indiscipline and as a consequence paid the price. I was staring at a maximum loss and should have switched off the computer to do something else. Another bout of poor decision making led to me staying in my seat, but fortunately over the next 10 minutes I grafted successfully to lessen my loss by £150. This could have gone tits up though, so grafting when you're down is not something I'd recommend, but it does show that I'd completely lost the plot by this point.

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Here are my latest results:

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Rugby Union

South Africa v Argentina : £202.10

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Golf

US PGA Championship : £24.32

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Cricket

Hampshire v Sussex : £363.25

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With the weather and other factors (even floodlights!) conspiring against me it's been a quiet week, so to make any profit after all that mess is a minor miracle. Putting those thoughts behind me is now crucial in order for me to keep moving forward.

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