Friday, 15 August 2008

Argy Bargy


Since Last Post P/L: £185.47
Monthly P/L: £779.63
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For a game that appears to have been resoundingly one sided, how the heck did I manage to suffer such a big loss? You've probably already guessed, the match I'm talking about was the South Africa v Argentina Rugby International which took place in Johannesburg on the weekend. The scoreline ended 63-9 in favour of the Springboks so surely this was a 1.01 train?!?
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No!
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The South Africans pre-match price was 1.05 and although it probably reflected their chance of winning the game, it probably didn't represent value as the Argies are normally a tough nut to crack. Yes, they'd been been buoyed by a recent win over the All Blacks but the situation was different here - this wasn't a Tri-Nations game and the boys in blue and white were fielding a decent team.
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So what did I do wrong?
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My first mistake was that I didn't really have a strategy before the match began. I find taking a view on what I expect to happen - even if that changes later on - extremely helpful. Without that view I can be prone to indecision, which (for me at least) is usually fatal when quick decisions are needed.
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My error was compounded when Argentina started strongly and my lack of control began to breed - a number of heavy tackles were putting the home side on the back foot and following a few infringements the South Americans were able to convert 3 penalty opportunities to open up a 9-0 lead. With 20 minutes gone this was starting to look more of a contest and with memories still fresh in the mind of Argentina beating France on their own patch at the World Cup, the likelihood of an upset began to increase. The odds on the favourites had now drifted to 1.30ish and this is where it went pear shaped.
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The South Africans were attacking so I lumped on and got matched within a second. I'd convinced myself that a score was on the cards but a dropped ball and a 60 metre kick ahead saw the visiting team counter attack and myself rushing for the lay button. A try for Argentina here would have put them 16-0 ahead and the market would have flip-flopped straight away. I admit I panicked, and looked to get out of my position at the nearest possible price. My lay was matched at 1.56.
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I hadn't followed my usual trading plan, had succumbed to indiscipline and as a consequence paid the price. I was staring at a maximum loss and should have switched off the computer to do something else. Another bout of poor decision making led to me staying in my seat, but fortunately over the next 10 minutes I grafted successfully to lessen my loss by £150. This could have gone tits up though, so grafting when you're down is not something I'd recommend, but it does show that I'd completely lost the plot by this point.
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Here are my latest results:
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Rugby Union
South Africa v Argentina : £202.10
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Golf
US PGA Championship : £24.32
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Cricket
Hampshire v Sussex : £363.25
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With the weather and other factors (even floodlights!) conspiring against me it's been a quiet week, so to make any profit after all that mess is a minor miracle. Putting those thoughts behind me is now crucial in order for me to keep moving forward.
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13 comments:

slipperytoad said...

Mistakes are the portals of discovery.
James Joyce; Irish author (1882 - 1941)

Mark Iverson said...

Thanks Mike!

All the best,

Mark

slipperytoad said...

no problem Mark. I utter the my comment to myself often. I no longer beat myself up for making any silly errors. I smile and try to learn from them, then move on.

Gary said...

Hi Mark

I noticed you work out a par score for an innings when trading cricket.

Any pointers on how you go about that?

I tried on one of the matches last week. I estimated around 190 yet the spread firms were suggesting 220-230 so erm i reckon i might of been a little out there! I think it was at Canterbury (The match where they couldnt get the floodlights up)

stuart said...

Hi Mark,

This is a bit off topic, but you recommend Bet Angel software on your FAQ page. What does this kit do for you and why is it so good?

Thanks

Mark Iverson said...

Hi Gary,

In order to get an idea of a par 1st innings score I look at a number of things but the spreads, previous ground records and batting/bowling strengths are all pointers to use.

When the match starts be flexible to 'tweak' (but don't get panicky) as the pitch and quickness of the outfield can alter scores quite a bit.

Hope this helps!

All the best,

Mark

Mark Iverson said...

Hi Stuart,

In a nutshell, Bet Angel allows me to see the whole of the market easily (where the money is etc.) and provides me with the ability to execute trades quickly (one click).

This means I can react quickly to any opportunities I see. i am in no doubt that this helps me enormously in posting consistent profits.

All the best,

Mark

Gary said...

Thanks Mark, not unlike the way i have been doing it really.

Basically i have been using the ECB's own site to establish an average for pro 40 first innings scores for the past 2-3 years on the ground in question, ignoring the highest and lowest achieved. Then taking into account team news and how the spreads look.

For example i had 222 for todays match, because of the reduction i had 180-185 as being, not too bad a score. I personally think Notts are a little shorter than they should have been, especially with Durhams attack, i reckon Notts will trade higher than they are.

That'll no doubt look silly come the end of their innings!!! lol

Especially now we have the d+l to deal with!

Mark Iverson said...

Hi Gary,

Good luck for the rest of the match - hopefully you're on the right side at the minute!

Be careful though - if there's anymore rain the market will go loopy!

All the best,

Mark

Gary said...

Wow, layed in the interval at 1.59 and backed 7 balls into the Notts innings at 1.86!!!

That'll do me!

Mark Iverson said...

Well done Gary - Nice one :-)

Jimmakos said...

Hi Mark!

I wanted to let you know that I'm "Guest Blogging" until the end of August and was wondering if you'd be interested.

Feel free to check my blog's traffic and alexa rank.

Keep it up!

SoccerBoy said...

Hi Mark - Great blog... Just looking at the comments on BetAngel... it sounds good. How long have you been using it for?

Cheers,

SoccerBoy
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http://www.mysoccerbets.com