Friday, 8 August 2008

MISSING: One Fat Lady


Since Last Post P/L: £594.16
Monthly P/L: £594.16
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Her dulcet tones have been heard a million times, but for some reason, this week she's decided to make herself scarce.
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Felipe Massa was the first victim of her vanishing act. After beating Lewis Hamilton to the first bend of the Hungarian Grand Prix he looked a shoe-in to storm to an unlikely victory, but it was not to be. With only 3 laps to go, his engine failed and he was out of the race. Ouch - with 18k matched at 1.01 there's a few people out there now patching-up the holes in their pockets. Luckily, I wasn't one of them but I remember thinking at the time that those lumping on the cash must have been mental.
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In the Pro40 cricket the twists and turns continued, as Middlesex and Essex both managed to defend low scores when facing Somerset and Northants. The graph below shows the Middlesex price throughout their match and provides a great illustration of why I love trading cricket. The game goes through many peaks and troughs and you don't have to be too concerned with how quickly you can click the mouse button. Not many sports allow you to see a selection open at 1.90, drift to 8.00 and then go on to win!
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It really is amazing how many 'sure things' get turned over, but spotting a real 'cert' from a dud isn't an easy task. This isn't to say I don't think it's possible or profitable, but in my opinion putting your hopes in animals or machines at such low odds is asking for trouble. Odds of 1.05 on Phil Taylor winning a Darts match and odds of 1.05 on 'Dirty Dobbin' winning the Derby just aren't the same in my book :-)
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Here's my results from this week:
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Rugby Union
New Zealand v Australia : £15.77
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Cricket
Middlesex v Somerset : £233.09
Essex v Surrey : £205.39
Warwickshire v Northants : £1.65
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Tennis
Moya v Murray : £23.69
Karlovic v Kohlschreiber : £7.74
Murray v Djokovic : £8.76
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Motor Sport
Hungary Grand Prix : £115.59
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I'm very happy with those figures and with my focus now completely on becoming highly consistent I just want to keep things moving. I'm aware that with Caden due to have his operation at the beginning of October, trading time will be at a minimum so making the most of the summer will be crucial if I'm going to post a decent total for 2008.
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The Olympics also kicks off today and although my knowledge of the various events is limited, it may pay to take a look at the more liquid markets. I'm not pencilling anything in yet but I'll keep my eyes peeled for anything of interest. With the Games guaranteed to generate a lot of media interest, over-hype and national pride may lead to inefficient markets.
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9 comments:

Dremeber said...

I think that a lot of gamblers did loose some money on the match Murray - Djokovic. And those other results are looking great.

Just want to warn you about adsense. Don't know if they will pay you, cause they don't allow site with gambling related content.

You can read an article about it on my blog.

Cheers,
Dremeber

dip said...

Hi Mark,
Congratulations !

Excellent results and i hope you will maintain discipline which is the most important factor in trading.
Just for information i'm covering county cricket limited overs matches in my blog http://findfreelay.blogspot.com for live cricket trading.
Waiting for your visit and comments.
All the best.
Dip

Gary said...

Hi Mark

Sometime ago i noticed that you were having trouble implementing your stop-loss, getting out too quickly when the market goes against you. Letting your profits run, but not taking them in time before the market turned.

I have had similar problems i know its the correct route (let your profits run and cut your losses short), 'Reminiscences of a Stock Operator' made that very clear. But implementing it for in-play sports trading seems problematic at best! i was wondering if you have got that particular demon under control and if so how you managed it?

Mark Iverson said...

Hi Dip,

It's great to hear from you.

I'm a big fan of your in-match analysis and would recommend your advice to anyone new to trading cricket.

I'm doing okay on the one day stuff but I need to pay more attention to what you say regarding test matches.

All the best mate,

Mark

Mark Iverson said...

Hi Gary,

That demon will always be there!

However, I've now recognised that I should 'get out' as soon as the market starts to act in a way that I haven't predicted.

I know that seems obvious so I'll explain by giving an example.

If a cricket team loses a wicket then of course their odds of winning the match decreases. In this scenario I would then expect their position to improve if they don't lose another wicket within the next few overs (it's amazing how much difference a few balls can make to a price). However, if the market does not reflect this within the expected time period (e.g. the few overs) then I'd 'get out' immediately and re-assess. My thoughts would be that I've missed something and holding a position when you're uncertain can be very costly.

I hope this helps and thanks for the comments.

All the best,

Mark

Gary said...

Yep makes perfect sense.

and now how not to do it...

Hampshire v Sussex

Coming towards the end of the Hampshire innings, nicely green on Sussex (currently priced at 1.75) One more dabble into the market before the innings ends. Figured can get out more or less evens should Hampshire start to whack the ball about, but if they lose a wicket looking at picking up possibly 10-15 ticks.
The ball does get whacked around, should get out during the turnaround but didnt, should have taken red 5 overs in but didnt, should have done the same at 10 or 15 but didnt ho hum, looking a bit grim now !!!lol

Only good news is that i limited my exposure to just 10% of my bank.

We live and learn.

dip said...

Hi Gary,

You've raised a very important issue 'Let win run and cut losses'
I believe we will be discussing it even when we turn 75+ :) (I'm 35 by the way).
To consider any trade as win trade or loss trade is not easy especially in a volatile market like Twenty20 when odds can move from 1.3 to 1.9 in only 1 over.
Although in a long game like Test matches or Golf we can consider let win trade run because of less volatile market generally.

In brief identify win trade and loss trade is the key in sports trading and frankly it is not easy.
Imo take some ticks profit here and there is best in some sports.
...............
Mark,
Thanks for all.
I can see you are doing very well in limited overs cricket.I think no test series in near future but surely whenever any i will invite you :) .
Dip

arachesostufo said...

dai che riva gigi,

ciao da venezia

Mark Iverson said...

Hi Gary,

Be very careful when trading near 2.00. The market loves a favourite and if you're on the wrong side of the swing it can be very painful.

All the best,

Mark