Friday, 27 February 2009

Artificial Intelligence


Since Last Update P/L: £2.10
Monthly P/L: £1,007.43
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It's funny what you can find by trawling through the recesses of unused folders on your hard drive. Yesterday I stumbled upon one of those forgotten files - a Classic IQ Test that I'd taken when visiting the old Tickle site a couple of years ago.
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I wouldn't have described myself as a 'Visual Mathematician' previously, but after re-reading my results a lot of things seem to make sense:
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"You have a strong ability to process visual-spatial and mathematical information. These skills combined with your strengths in logic are what make you a Visual Mathematician.
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You're able to understand patterns visually and in numbers. That means your mind can create a mental picture for any problem. In addition to that skill, you possess an intelligence that allows you to apply maths to that picture, too. That helps you manipulate multiple parts of the picture (or problem) to come up with a solution.
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You have many skills that are critical to success and problem-solving. Your talents help you understand the "big picture," which is partly why people may turn to you for direction -- especially in the workplace. You flourish in environments where tasks are clearly defined, and you excel at improving processes and making things more efficient. Like Einstein, your ability to detect patterns and your skills in maths and logic, make it natural for you to come up with ideas and theories that simplify processes for everyone."
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All job offers and public appearances considered - LOL! Seriously though, is it my ability to recognise patterns that make me well suited to trading? It seems a reasonable explanation, and as I'm also a Project Manager I'm glad to see that improving processes and making things more efficient should be one of my strengths.
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Now, back to the usual stuff...
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Trading has been slow over the last week and as I haven't been feeling too clever I decided to close the book on February to secure a profit of over a thousand pounds for the month. Achieving little milestones like that (especially in my off season) are important to me and allow me a pat on the back before concentrating on new challenges ahead. As it won't be long before I'm over-whelmed with a number of events to trade, this small break has been more than welcome.
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Mr. Plod (my adopting name for the 'PC' - get it?) has continued to rear his ugly head so the losses on soccer and horse racing mentioned below are mainly my attempts at trying to duck the deductions. Here's my final results for February:
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Darts : £66.10
Horse Racing : £4.06
Rugby Union : £14.48
Soccer : £18.87
Premium Charge : £59.75
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Elsewhere, rumours are rife on the forums regarding Betfair's latest intentions. Allegedly, they are due to release a new product called 'Mini Games' very soon. Not content with enticing people via the casino and arcade, they are now internallly testing a product which will add fruit machines to your betting slip! So where you see Place Bet, My Bets, Rules & Help, you will also now see 'Mini Games' - just in case you were so addicted to losing money that you can't get a fix for another three minutes to the next race! I'll let you decide the ethics behind this one but it seems so bizarre how a company can change it's corporate strategy so quickly and purposefully turn full circle on it's loyal customers. Of course, this could all be 'hear say' but I wouldn't bet against it. If it does happen, then in my opinion Betfair must be struggling to fund their worldwide expansion.
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13 comments:

Anonymous said...

Mark something I was unaware of as I'm not interested in horses is that Betdaq are currently only charging 1% on in-running horse markets.

Mark Iverson said...

Hi Anonymous,

Thanks for the heads up but I was already aware of this.

Unfortunately, I'm still under the impression that their in-play markets are still lacking liquidity.

I hope this changes soon though!

All the best,

Mark

Anonymous said...

Sorry the name is Simon.

I'm not interested in horse-racing markets but when I found out about the 1% today I was surprised that the liquidity there wasn't better than it is. Do you think this is through a lack of advertising or just generally a poor service?

They also put my account onto a fixed 3% rate which was very good of them, I will keep on trying to put as much as I can through them but its not easy.

Anthony said...

The problem for Betdaq is that you need the traders for liquidity and liquidity for the traders. It's not going to happen. Fair play to the people who tried to get a movement together. The traders and gamblers who earn the big money make enough that the premium charge doesn't affect them too much. I'd rather pay 25% of £100K than 25% of £10k. At least I know I'll have £75k left, which is not an amount you can earn on Betdaq. By the way, I'm a £10k man!
Good month Mark, nice one.

Anonymous said...

It is a shame there's not more liquidity on Betdaq - maybe there'll be some critical level where a snowball effect will take place, but that doesn't look too likely at the moment.

I trade in-running horse race markets on Betfair and have been quite successful over the past year or so, but the premium charge is absolutely killing me. It's not so much the amounts (which are quite staggering), but the psychological impact of having some fairly random amount deducted from my account on Wednesdays (you've got to love implied commission!).

So what am I going to do about it? Move to Betdaq? Well, unfortunately for me that's not currently an option. It's not the liquidity that's so much of an issue (even though if I had a proper look at their markets, it probably would be), but the fact that I use specialized software on Betfair which is not available on Betdaq.

Rather than move to Betdaq I'm looking to move away from sports trading altogether and focus my efforts in other areas.

The quick move away from Betfair that a lot of people were predicting has sadly not happened, and I'm sure those in Betfair towers are rubbing their greedy hands together. I can't see too bright a future for them, however. There are going to be many people like me who may have not moved away at the moment, but are doing everything they can to move away in the future. It wasn't a quick shift of money, but it'll be a slow death for Betfair.

They can keep their arcade and their stupid mini games and mutate into the corporate gambling monster that they so obviously want to be. Not only do I not recommend them to anyone anymore, I actively encourage others not to open an account. One look at the charging page is all someone would need to be convinced.

Mark Iverson said...

Hi Simon,

I'd love Betdaq to become a viable alternative but as Anthony quite rightly says, they need liquidity to attract traders. There's no point putting on a bet if you can't get the other side matched.

All the best,

Mark

Mark Iverson said...

Hi Anthony,

Thanks for helping out with that one - your explanation of the problem is spot on.

All the best and cheers for the support as always.

Mark

Mark Iverson said...

Hi Anonymous (2),

I've been doing some research recently and I now believe that there are ways of getting around the charge by trading other sports and specific markets.

It's a bit of a pain but if it means I'm able to get out of the 0.5% then it means I'll save quite a bit over the year.

Have you thought about doing this?

Look for efficient sports (soccer) and for outcomes that you can arb - it seems to work as my total charge % is currently heading towards the magical 20% figure.

All the best,

Mark

Jim said...

Hi this is Will

Betfair seems to have a monopoly don't they. I spent ages searching for a really good way to make money without having to rely on Betfair.

I've actually written a review of sports arbitrage services available on a website if any one is interested.

Mark, are the any ways of getting really up to date tips from you?

Mark Iverson said...

Hi Jim,

Nice to hear from you.

I'm not a tipster mate - all of my trading is done in-play and my thoughts change from minute to minute depending on what I see.

I promise there's a method to the madness though :-)

All the best,

Mark

Hairdresser MX 5 said...

Just did the same test and had the same result !!

Selectabet said...

Hey Mark,

Hope you are well.

Forgot to reply to you ages ago to let you know I've put a link back here over at http://selectabet.net/blog/about/useful-links/

Al the best, sb

Mark Iverson said...

Hi SB,

Thanks - Link will be re-added to your blog today.

All the best,

Mark