Saturday, 20 November 2010

Something To Chew On

Since the beginning of the football season I've been busy working on a rating system for the Premier League. It's now reached a stage where I feel it offers a level of reliability and has to date enabled my to generate an ROI of 28%. Not bad considering this is all new to me!

So this is how it works. Below is a snippet showing this weekends Premier League games (clicking on it should make it bigger).

The most recent games are nearest to the team name and have been assigned a score from 4 to 34. Naturally the higher the better, but to help there's a traffic light system. A green background indicates a strong performance whilst a yellow one is average and a red poor. Simple eh?

The table also then shows the average score for that team over the last 4 games (Ave) and the average score for the home team playing at home this season (Ho.Ave) and vice versa for the away team (Aw.Ave).

By representing performances in this fashion it should be easier for me to highlight a team on form and when compared to prices it should identify value bets.

Here's the most current pre-match prices for these matches on Betfair:

So how do you interpret these performances against the prices - do you see any value based on my ratings?

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