Friday, 26 November 2010

One For The Money

Thanks to those of you who took the time to comment on my last post. It's nice to know someone is taking a look at my ratings and all feedback is appreciated. It even got a mention on Cassini's excellent blog 'Green All Over' which is high praise indeed, although I'm a little stumped as to how our ratings differ so much. If we were picking names out of a hat we'd have ended up with a closer match!

So, onto this weekend....


and here are the current Betfair prices...


What are my thoughts? Well, there's a few matches that raise my interest but this one especially:

Bolton v Blackpool - One thing that I didn't mention previously was my liking for consistency. If a team has one 'green' performance' but then backs it up with a 'yellow' and then a couple of 'reds' it shows signs that they are unreliable. These 2 teams are the exact opposite. Over the last 4 matches both have strung together greens and yellows which leads me to think this could be a close game especially when I look at the respective home and away averages which are 19.29 and 19.39. Bolton do have a good 4 game supremacy difference though (24.00 to 19.50) and Blackpool's scores do seem to be on a dipping trend so it will be the prices that decide what to do from here. Bolton to win at 1.61 (62%) seems too short but on the other hand I don't fancy Blackpool to win. That leaves the draw at 4.30 which represents just over a 23% chance. For me, I think there maybe some value here. With the par price for the draw in Premier League matches normally around 3.40 is the market missing a trick?

That's my insight into the reading of one match but I'm interested to hear your thoughts on any of the other games. Do my ratings highlight any other possibilities?

4 comments:

Matt said...

Hello Mark,

Glad to have (re)found your blog. I'm really interested to see your ratings. I'm trying to start one myself, but not really sure how to get it off the ground.

Does your spreadsheet automate any of the work, or are you entering everything manually?

Would you be able to provide a blank copy please (I don't have to your ratings, just want to see how it works). Understand if you don't want to, I'll just have to fumble on :)

Thanks,
Matt

Mark Iverson said...

Hi Matt,

Nice to hear from you mate.

All the ratings are generated automatically from data I enter based on predetermined formula, but it's quite a quick process and doesn't take long to get everything updated.

Drop me an email and I can explain further.

All the best,

Mark

Matt Trounce said...

Hi Mark,

Just found this blog, top work on the result in the Bolton game at the weekend, nice spot. I'm in my final year at University and have just applied for a graduate scheme in sports trading. I've got a blog that I've start on my analysis on horseracing (http://extremeconviction.blogspot.com/), but I'll be following yours with interest and look forward to seeing with what you come up with this weekend.

Have you been in sports trading for long? Do you just focus on football? Or go into other markets as well?

Thanks,

Matt

Mark Iverson said...

Hi Matt,

Thanks for the comment.

This blog details my journey into sports trading over the last 4 and a half years (been a customer of Betfair since 2001 though). It's been a long road!

Cricket is my main sport but I also trade NFL, Darts and Rugby Union. Football is something new and I'm approaching it purely from a punting angle at the moment.

If I rememebr this evening I'll put up a link to your blog - would appreciate if you could do the same.

All the best and good luck.

Mark