Since Last Post P/L: £8.79
Monthly P/L: £431.26
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Not a huge amount to report. The weather put paid to the Pro 40 cricket during the week so the only trading exercises I've put myself through over the last 7 days have been investigating the possibility of creating a 'soccer-bot' and a small dabble on the France v England game tonight.
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If you've been reading my blog for a while then you'll know that my previous attempts at trading soccer have failed miserably but I still can't help thinking I'm missing a trick. This is the thing with traders - always up for a challenge of beating the system and always looking for holes to exploit. Unfortunately, despite the fantastic excel platform provided by Bet Angel that helps you design your own 'bot' it still feels that my search for the Holy Grail continues. I attempted to create a 'scalper' program and whilst it worked the risk-reward ratio just wasn't in my favour - I didn't get caught out this time but I could feel it was just around the corner. Best to leave alone and re-assess so it's back to the drawing board for the time-being.
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One last thing before I go - I've put a poll on the right hand side of the blog which I'd really like your feedback on. As it stands, I only make a post after I've done some trading and if I feel I have something to report. As I only trade part-time this means that it could be 5-6 days between posts. Now I don't have a problem with this but I'd like to know if you'd prefer more frequent, shorter posts instead? Other blogs sometimes only write a few lines and in the past I've deliberately tried not to do this as I don't want to come across as lazy but on the other hand you may like to hear some of my ramblings. I'll leave the decision up to you - the vote ends soon!
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Sunday, 19 August 2007
Saturday, 11 August 2007
World Cup Warm Up
Daily P/L: £118.49
Monthly P/L: £422.47
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Rugby is back on the sporting calendar and it feels good. At the beginning of the summer I was concerned that with a lack of rugby I may struggle to make profits. Well, thanks mainly to the cricket, I seem to have survived and I've now got a big grin on my face as I prepare for the new season. The World Cup kicks off in a months time and today's games were just the tonic for my preparation.
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Scotland v Ireland
What happened here? Scottish rugby is in dire straits. There's a lack of money and a lack of interest north of the border so it appears typically ironic that they should start to look like a half decent side. Okay, this was just a "friendly" but beating Ireland will have given them plenty of confidence and their forwards a great boost before they meet the South Africans in the coming weeks. They won't beat South Africa but they can hope for a close game providing they put up a similar effort to today. From a trading perspective I was very wary of this game as I couldn't figure out how hard they were trying so I settled for a small profit of £8.84 quite early on.
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England v France
I thought I could make a bit of profit on this one as I anticipated the market over-reacting to the drubbing England gave Wales last week. England played well and looked impressive in that one but they were up against a very weak Welsh pack. The same can't be said for the French so my strategy for today's game was to pick good opportunities for getting on the visitors. The key time came just before Pelous scored the first French try and I secured a £109.65 profit. England fans can take comfort from their teams performance - it wasn't their strongest line-up and they played well. As for France? One player makes them tick - David Skrela. If he gets injured then they'll struggle to get out of their pool.
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Monthly P/L: £422.47
.
Rugby is back on the sporting calendar and it feels good. At the beginning of the summer I was concerned that with a lack of rugby I may struggle to make profits. Well, thanks mainly to the cricket, I seem to have survived and I've now got a big grin on my face as I prepare for the new season. The World Cup kicks off in a months time and today's games were just the tonic for my preparation.
.
Scotland v Ireland
What happened here? Scottish rugby is in dire straits. There's a lack of money and a lack of interest north of the border so it appears typically ironic that they should start to look like a half decent side. Okay, this was just a "friendly" but beating Ireland will have given them plenty of confidence and their forwards a great boost before they meet the South Africans in the coming weeks. They won't beat South Africa but they can hope for a close game providing they put up a similar effort to today. From a trading perspective I was very wary of this game as I couldn't figure out how hard they were trying so I settled for a small profit of £8.84 quite early on.
.
England v France
I thought I could make a bit of profit on this one as I anticipated the market over-reacting to the drubbing England gave Wales last week. England played well and looked impressive in that one but they were up against a very weak Welsh pack. The same can't be said for the French so my strategy for today's game was to pick good opportunities for getting on the visitors. The key time came just before Pelous scored the first French try and I secured a £109.65 profit. England fans can take comfort from their teams performance - it wasn't their strongest line-up and they played well. As for France? One player makes them tick - David Skrela. If he gets injured then they'll struggle to get out of their pool.
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Friday, 10 August 2007
Shark Bite
Since Last Post P/L: £160.32
Monthly P/L: £303.98
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Sometimes we just have to look in mirror and say "I got in wrong". I've been doing this a few times over the last few days and when I've analysed my losing trades one thing continues to stand out - when I made the right decision I let the trade run too far and then put the stop loss too short so I ended with little profit. This meant that when the inevitable losing trades hit I was affected much more than usual and this made it very difficult to end each session in profit. I'm aware that I've grown this mindset from trying to let my winning trades run but this strategy doesn't seem to be paying off.
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Nevermind eh? At least I know my faults!
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Sussex v Gloucestershire
My view throughout this match was way off. Gloucestershire had posted a very large 266 off their 40 overs and with the floodlights due to make a difference I couldn't see them getting caught - especially at Hove. To try and get a head start Sussex threw Luke Wright into open the batting and it proved to be a masterstroke. The youngster started smashing the ball around the park for fun and his 125 off 77 balls proved to be the difference. I could have got out for a smaller loss but I didn't. The result? A nasty big red of 182.13.
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Derbyshire v Leicestershire
What a funny old game this was. By the time I'd got home the Derbyshire innings was already over as they'd crumbled to 175 all out. This is not normally a good sign for trading as one sided matches usually offer little opportunity to ride the volatility of the market but I thought I'd wait and see what happened when the Foxes started their chase. Two things became apparent quite quickly - the sun was getting in the eyes of the batsmen and the pitch wasn't an easy one to bat on. Both of these thoughts were backed up early on when Ackerman lost his wicket for just 6 runs - was it game on? Just as I was getting a little excited the umpires decided to halt proceedings - the sun was too low in the sky and this ended up delaying the game for an hour and a half. When the players returned I watched for the chance to oppose Leicestershire and I got in at the right time. They were making things difficult for themselves and at this point I'd made up for my loss the day before. I should have stopped there but I got a little greedy and ended up making some wrong decisions. I finished with a profit of £85.79 but this should have been bigger. Leicestershire ended up winning by 1 wicket with 1 ball remaining and the market was all over the place in the last over.
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Yorkshire v Middlesex
Yorkshire tried their hardest to lose this game and if I was Darren Gough I'd have been tearing my hair out. They started well as their bowlers found their line and length and restricted Middlesex to just 183 on a pitch that seemed pretty straight forward. The run rate was never likely to be a problem so all they needed to do was keep their wickets in tact. The chase started well and they'd made it to 131-3 with little to worry about - then the trouble started. Within a handful of overs the score had changed dramatically as wicket after wicket fell. They were now 165-8! The market was swinging in both directions and I couldn't call it right. I decided not to gamble on finishing with a bigger loss and watched the conclusion of the match just for fun. The home side stumbled over the line and I stumbled into bed after another defeat of £63.98.
.
Monthly P/L: £303.98
.
Sometimes we just have to look in mirror and say "I got in wrong". I've been doing this a few times over the last few days and when I've analysed my losing trades one thing continues to stand out - when I made the right decision I let the trade run too far and then put the stop loss too short so I ended with little profit. This meant that when the inevitable losing trades hit I was affected much more than usual and this made it very difficult to end each session in profit. I'm aware that I've grown this mindset from trying to let my winning trades run but this strategy doesn't seem to be paying off.
.
Nevermind eh? At least I know my faults!
.
Sussex v Gloucestershire
My view throughout this match was way off. Gloucestershire had posted a very large 266 off their 40 overs and with the floodlights due to make a difference I couldn't see them getting caught - especially at Hove. To try and get a head start Sussex threw Luke Wright into open the batting and it proved to be a masterstroke. The youngster started smashing the ball around the park for fun and his 125 off 77 balls proved to be the difference. I could have got out for a smaller loss but I didn't. The result? A nasty big red of 182.13.
.
Derbyshire v Leicestershire
What a funny old game this was. By the time I'd got home the Derbyshire innings was already over as they'd crumbled to 175 all out. This is not normally a good sign for trading as one sided matches usually offer little opportunity to ride the volatility of the market but I thought I'd wait and see what happened when the Foxes started their chase. Two things became apparent quite quickly - the sun was getting in the eyes of the batsmen and the pitch wasn't an easy one to bat on. Both of these thoughts were backed up early on when Ackerman lost his wicket for just 6 runs - was it game on? Just as I was getting a little excited the umpires decided to halt proceedings - the sun was too low in the sky and this ended up delaying the game for an hour and a half. When the players returned I watched for the chance to oppose Leicestershire and I got in at the right time. They were making things difficult for themselves and at this point I'd made up for my loss the day before. I should have stopped there but I got a little greedy and ended up making some wrong decisions. I finished with a profit of £85.79 but this should have been bigger. Leicestershire ended up winning by 1 wicket with 1 ball remaining and the market was all over the place in the last over.
.
Yorkshire v Middlesex
Yorkshire tried their hardest to lose this game and if I was Darren Gough I'd have been tearing my hair out. They started well as their bowlers found their line and length and restricted Middlesex to just 183 on a pitch that seemed pretty straight forward. The run rate was never likely to be a problem so all they needed to do was keep their wickets in tact. The chase started well and they'd made it to 131-3 with little to worry about - then the trouble started. Within a handful of overs the score had changed dramatically as wicket after wicket fell. They were now 165-8! The market was swinging in both directions and I couldn't call it right. I decided not to gamble on finishing with a bigger loss and watched the conclusion of the match just for fun. The home side stumbled over the line and I stumbled into bed after another defeat of £63.98.
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Saturday, 4 August 2007
A Fitting Finale
Since Last Post P/L: £464.30
Monthly P/L: £464.30
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August signals the end of my first year of trading as opposed to punting and at the end of it I'll be able to judge how successful this transition has been so I'm delighted to get off to good start. Cricket has now become my most profitable sport and with the Twenty 20 World Cup in September there's plenty to start getting excited about.
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I'm also aware that the updates to my blog haven't been as frequent recently - please stick with me as there are other things going on in my life at the moment which are taking up alot of my time - I will reveal all in due course :-)
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Hampshire v Nottinghamshire
The Rose Bowl looks a cracking place to play cricket but it's not renowned for huge scores so when David Hussey (81) helped the Outlaws post a respectable 214 I thought there maybe a bit of value in opposing the hosts especially as they'd have to chase under the lights. The exact opposite turned out to be true - Hampshire were never in trouble and they cruised home under the guidance of John Crawley (97 n/o) to leave me with a hole of £70.43 in my account.
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Essex v Worcestershire
After a poor end to July and a morale sapping loss the day before, this was probably not the best time to introduce my boss to the "wonders of trading on Betfair". After taking on my new role in February I've always been honest with him about what I do in my spare time and he's always expressed in an interest in making some extra money (especially as I've explained to him the rewards can be high). As his wife had gone away for a few days and we get on very well I offered him the chance to come around and see for himself how things worked. He plays cricket regularly and with hindsight I think his influence must have helped back up my own thoughts. I was alot more decisive with my trades and by the end of the first innings we decided to take the £104.81 and go to the pub for a celebratory pint. The mixed grill tasted twice as good as normal and it we had a good night.
.
Lancashire v Gloucestershire
Twenty 20 finals day is the equivalent of Christmas Day for traders. Three matches in one day with high quality players and plenty of liquidity in the markets - what more can you ask for? Lancashire were very strong 1.56 favourites at the start of the game but it's clear this isn't their favoured format and in the end I felt they were very fortunate to reach a total of 148. Their star players failed to fire and the Gladiators made the chase look easy with Spearman cracking a fantastic 86 off 55 balls. I made a profit of £197.34 on the match and thoughts did start coming into my head - would it be a day for the underdogs?
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Sussex v Kent
As I was keen to watch the England v Wales rugby match at 4pm (what a waste of time this was - Jenkins must go!) I was only going to trade the first innings but this proved to be enough. The Sharks have a great batting line-up but they ended up losing some key men early (Wright & Prior) and never really recovered. The target of 141 for Kent was always likely if they could hold onto their wickets and that's what they did. I made a profit of £142.40 on this one.
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Gloucestershire v Kent
The final. A great climax to a great day ended with Kent pipping Gloucestershire to the post. It all came down to the last few balls even though it looked like the Spitfires were in control for most of their innings. Some great catches from Marshall to dismiss Key and Denly could have swung the game but it was not to be and we now have to wait another year for the fun to start again. This match brought me a profit of £90.18.
.
Monthly P/L: £464.30
.
August signals the end of my first year of trading as opposed to punting and at the end of it I'll be able to judge how successful this transition has been so I'm delighted to get off to good start. Cricket has now become my most profitable sport and with the Twenty 20 World Cup in September there's plenty to start getting excited about.
.
I'm also aware that the updates to my blog haven't been as frequent recently - please stick with me as there are other things going on in my life at the moment which are taking up alot of my time - I will reveal all in due course :-)
.
Hampshire v Nottinghamshire
The Rose Bowl looks a cracking place to play cricket but it's not renowned for huge scores so when David Hussey (81) helped the Outlaws post a respectable 214 I thought there maybe a bit of value in opposing the hosts especially as they'd have to chase under the lights. The exact opposite turned out to be true - Hampshire were never in trouble and they cruised home under the guidance of John Crawley (97 n/o) to leave me with a hole of £70.43 in my account.
.
Essex v Worcestershire
After a poor end to July and a morale sapping loss the day before, this was probably not the best time to introduce my boss to the "wonders of trading on Betfair". After taking on my new role in February I've always been honest with him about what I do in my spare time and he's always expressed in an interest in making some extra money (especially as I've explained to him the rewards can be high). As his wife had gone away for a few days and we get on very well I offered him the chance to come around and see for himself how things worked. He plays cricket regularly and with hindsight I think his influence must have helped back up my own thoughts. I was alot more decisive with my trades and by the end of the first innings we decided to take the £104.81 and go to the pub for a celebratory pint. The mixed grill tasted twice as good as normal and it we had a good night.
.
Lancashire v Gloucestershire
Twenty 20 finals day is the equivalent of Christmas Day for traders. Three matches in one day with high quality players and plenty of liquidity in the markets - what more can you ask for? Lancashire were very strong 1.56 favourites at the start of the game but it's clear this isn't their favoured format and in the end I felt they were very fortunate to reach a total of 148. Their star players failed to fire and the Gladiators made the chase look easy with Spearman cracking a fantastic 86 off 55 balls. I made a profit of £197.34 on the match and thoughts did start coming into my head - would it be a day for the underdogs?
.
Sussex v Kent
As I was keen to watch the England v Wales rugby match at 4pm (what a waste of time this was - Jenkins must go!) I was only going to trade the first innings but this proved to be enough. The Sharks have a great batting line-up but they ended up losing some key men early (Wright & Prior) and never really recovered. The target of 141 for Kent was always likely if they could hold onto their wickets and that's what they did. I made a profit of £142.40 on this one.
.
Gloucestershire v Kent
The final. A great climax to a great day ended with Kent pipping Gloucestershire to the post. It all came down to the last few balls even though it looked like the Spitfires were in control for most of their innings. Some great catches from Marshall to dismiss Key and Denly could have swung the game but it was not to be and we now have to wait another year for the fun to start again. This match brought me a profit of £90.18.
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