Bolton came to my rescue last weekend to pull back a 2 goal deficit and secure a draw at home to Blackpool. At odds of 4.30 the price seemed a bit high as in my book 3.00 (approx 33%) would have been about right. Even though there were other games of interest, that match turned out to be my only bet as the prices on the other short-list selections didn't provide any value and at the end of the day that's what it's all about.
So can we pick any short-list selections this week?
I'll update this post tomorrow with the latest prices and my thoughts, but I'm really interested to see if any of you lot can highlight some opportunities. There could be quite a few in there so let me know by leaving a comment!
UPDATE - 03/12/2010
Thanks to Matt for taking the time to post his thoughts on my latest ratings. Now it's my turn!
Here's the latest odds (Blackpool v Man Utd has been postponed so this match has been excluded) :
There's a lot going on there but these are the stand-outs from my perspective:
Birmingham v Tottenham: Rafael van der Vaart is out for Spurs so can the London side perform without him? He makes a big difference to the team but with a huge 4 game supremacy (26.25 v 16.25) and superior home/away form I think they can get over the line at a generous price of 2.20. Conclusion: Tottenham win.
Chelsea v Everton: These teams are closely matched on last 4 games and home/away form but it does worry me that both have had a stand-out shocking performance recently (Chelsea 14 and Everton's 9). However 5.10 is a big price and that is enough to sway me towards my decision. Conclusion: Draw
Man City v Bolton: A very similar match-up to the previous game although Bolton probably have a slightly better chance of pulling off a victory. I don't think they will mind so I'll plump for the 4.20 that says it'll end in a stalemate. Conclusion: Draw
Sunderland v West Ham: This was a difficult decision - is the 1.91 on offer for Sunderland to win value? Their form beats West Ham on both counts but this doesn't feel as solid a selection as the 2.20 on Tottenham. Ideally I would be looking for a price above 2.00 but the Hammers have been dismal this season. Conclusion: Sunderland win.
An important part of any betting plan is to manage your risk and stake correctly so for your information the value of my bets decrease for selections with higher odds. However, they're all in proportion with the size of my bank. I'm not saying this is the best way of maximising any edge I may have as I could adopt a 'Kelly' approach but it's working for me right now so I'll stick with it for the time being.