Thursday, 2 December 2010

Spotting Value

Bolton came to my rescue last weekend to pull back a 2 goal deficit and secure a draw at home to Blackpool. At odds of 4.30 the price seemed a bit high as in my book 3.00 (approx 33%) would have been about right. Even though there were other games of interest, that match turned out to be my only bet as the prices on the other short-list selections didn't provide any value and at the end of the day that's what it's all about.

So can we pick any short-list selections this week?


I'll update this post tomorrow with the latest prices and my thoughts, but I'm really interested to see if any of you lot can highlight some opportunities. There could be quite a few in there so let me know by leaving a comment!

UPDATE - 03/12/2010

Thanks to Matt for taking the time to post his thoughts on my latest ratings. Now it's my turn!

Here's the latest odds (Blackpool v Man Utd has been postponed so this match has been excluded) :


There's a lot going on there but these are the stand-outs from my perspective:

Birmingham v Tottenham: Rafael van der Vaart is out for Spurs so can the London side perform without him? He makes a big difference to the team but with a huge 4 game supremacy (26.25 v 16.25) and superior home/away form I think they can get over the line at a generous price of 2.20. Conclusion: Tottenham win.

Chelsea v Everton: These teams are closely matched on last 4 games and home/away form but it does worry me that both have had a stand-out shocking performance recently (Chelsea 14 and Everton's 9). However 5.10 is a big price and that is enough to sway me towards my decision. Conclusion: Draw

Man City v Bolton: A very similar match-up to the previous game although Bolton probably have a slightly better chance of pulling off a victory. I don't think they will mind so I'll plump for the 4.20 that says it'll end in a stalemate. Conclusion: Draw

Sunderland v West Ham: This was a difficult decision - is the 1.91 on offer for Sunderland to win value? Their form beats West Ham on both counts but this doesn't feel as solid a selection as the 2.20 on Tottenham. Ideally I would be looking for a price above 2.00 but the Hammers have been dismal this season. Conclusion: Sunderland win.

An important part of any betting plan is to manage your risk and stake correctly so for your information the value of my bets decrease for selections with higher odds. However, they're all in proportion with the size of my bank. I'm not saying this is the best way of maximising any edge I may have as I could adopt a 'Kelly' approach but it's working for me right now so I'll stick with it for the time being.

5 comments:

Matt Trounce said...

Hi Mark,

I'd like a West Brom-Newcastle Draw this weekend, mainly a score draw. Although Newcastle have a string of reds against their names, they are closely matched on the home/away form.

1. It's not hard to see newcastle scoring - they've shown they can score goals this season putting 6 past Villa and 5 past Sunderland at home, also though they've scored in all of their last 8 away matches. Of course away this season they've also beaten Arsenal, Everton and Chelsea away. West Brom's defence is also very shakey, and they have conceded in everyone of their last 15 games.

2. It's almost just as easy to see West Brom scoring as Newcastle. In newcastle's last 9 games, both teams have scored in 6, and the same goes in West Brom games - so both teams scoring looks likely. Newcastle have conceded at least 2 goals in 10/18 games this season (5/9 away) which seems a very high percentage. West Brom have also conceded 2 against West Ham and 3 against stoke in their last 2 home games, so i think a 2-2 scoreline could be overpriced. West Brom have had 3 score draws from 9 games at home this season.

3. The two times they played at against each other in the championship last season ended 1-1 and 2-2.

The teams look closely matched, and i'd be interested in the 7.6 on 1-1 on betfair and the 15.5 on 2-2 looks good value.

Mark Iverson said...

Hi Matt,

Many thanks for leaving a reply - there's some quality analysis there!

From my ratings though it would seem that WBA have a decent 4 game dominance with an average of 19.50 v 13.75. That rules me out from backing Newcastle but is it enough to back WBA?

Nope. As you point out the home and away averages for both teams are too similar (actually Newcastle's is slightly better)so it doesn't matter what the odds are as I wouldn't feel confident on being able to call the result. Too much doubt for me therefore makes it a no bet.

Good stuff.

Mark

Cassini said...

Hi Mark - I have Sunderland as my value pick in the Premier League this weekend. Other comments - Birmingham v Tottenham is a tough call - leaving that one alone. The numbers say Spurs but no value at 2.2. Blackburn 1.82 value to beat Wolves. Lay Stoke @ 2.76. As always, good luck.

Mark Iverson said...

Hi Cassini,

Interesting to see that between ourselves and Matt we can only come up with the Sunderland game where we agree!

For a game with a limited amount of variables it's fascinating how we can come to different conclusions. With this in mind how the hell do people following the gee-gees think they have a hope? They have many more to contend with e.g. Weights, Distance, Courses, Jockeys etc!

All the best and good luck for today.

Mark

Ernest said...

Like the content of your article!

I have been doing some research on calculating fair odds by expected goals, poisson distribution and placing value bets lately and would like to recommend the following articles (for beginners like myself):

1. http://footytradingposts.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/calculating-goal-expectancy.html
2. http://footytradingposts.blogspot.co.uk/2012/01/poisson-for-dummies.html
3. http://www.soccerwidow.com/betting-maths/tutorial/calculation-of-odds-probability-and-deviation/