Wednesday, 4 January 2012

One Year On (Part 2/3)

Part 1 of my 2011 review looked at the overall picture, but what sports made up my profits and has there been a shift since 2010?  Are there changes I need to make and do I need to focus on some sports more than others?

First, the winners…

Cricket (UP 112%)
Since 2007, cricket has been my cash cow and a stable source of income but 2011 was an even busier year, with me trading 271 matches!  This is up from 182 in 2010, so it’s no wonder that this sport has brought me better results, but the encouraging thing is that I’ve also become more efficient – each match was worth 44% more to me than the year before.  There’s no Cricket World Cup in 2012 but we do have the T20 equivalent later in the year so I expect a similar amount of activity over the next 12 months.

Rugby Union (UP 100%)
Another big winner which I can put down to 2 things – again, being more effective but also the Rugby World Cup.  This tournament allowed me to get involved regularly with decent volumes so it’s a shame that it won’t come along for another 4 years.   A small worry regarding rugby is that I’ve noticed that liquidity in domestic matches has been decreasing in-play.  I don’t know that for a fact, but that’s what it feels like.   The only explanation I can find for this is that the previous market makers have been put off since the new premium  charge rules were introduced in the summer.

NFL (UP 47%)
This is a pleasing one as I did put a lot of effort into getting to know this sport better before the start of the season.  With the same amount of matches each year it’s an easy one to compare, so I’m hoping that I can go onto bigger and better things year on year.

So, there’s the good news but unfortunately we do have a couple of losers…

Darts (DOWN 83%)
Ouch!  This hurt.  I still turned a profit over the year but unfortunately it appears that my edge here has been eroded.  Why?  Well, it’s quite simple – my edge was all based around putting up unmatched orders in play at prices I knew to be bad value.  Due to the volatility and speed of the sport a lot of these bets got taken and tadaaaaa…the profits mount up.  So what’s changed?  Some of you may have noticed that there are now fast picture players dominating these markets .  With darts if you’re 2 seconds behind someone else then it’s the equivalent of being a dart behind.  The orders I’m putting up are therefore out of date and I’ve been getting picked off.   After accepting the truth I decided to hang up my darting mouse during the PDC World Championships and felt sick as I watched the drama unfold.  It was just like finding out that your ex-girlfriend dumped you for someone else.

Betfair Premium Charges (UP 91%)
Despite my best efforts, I was unable to transfer a lot of my business to Betdaq, so have continued to use Betfair as my exchange of choice.  It bugs me,  but like a cornered mouse I have nowhere to go, but I’ll continue to look for a hole in the floorboard.

And the rest?  Well throughout the year I’ve also dabbled with the horse racing and soccer markets but without sufficient time to devote to them it’s been a futile exercise.  To try and plug this hole in my portfolio I  decided at the end of November to start following Cassini’s XX Draw selections.  It looks like I picked a bad time as Cassini won’t thank me for reminding him that we’re on a bad run – just 1 draw in the last 18 selections.  The problem is I can’t stop now as I just know things will turn around,  so I’m committed until the end of the season.  I have faith!

So there you have it – the good, the bad and the ugly.   Now, what next?  What’s the plan for 2012?  For that you’ll have to wait for my third and final post.

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5 comments:

Cassini said...

And I'm sure your wife will be pleased to read that you still have feelings for the ex-girlfriend..."It was just like finding out that your ex-girlfriend dumped you for someone else." You sir, are a bounder and a cad!

On the XX Draws, are you following the Unders on these too? They soften the blow of a game that ends up losing to a late goal.

Mark Iverson said...

Hi Cassini,

Ssshhh...don't tell her..the longer it takes for her to figure that out the better! ;-)

Unfortunately I'm not following the unders too. Decided to do just the draws! Typical. Sorry for passing my unlucky punting onto you :-(

All the best,

Mark

Chris said...

Great blog, very entertaining

Mark Iverson said...

Thanks for the kind words Chris. I'm glad you enjoy it.

All the best,

Mark

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