Friday, 27 January 2012

Seeing Double

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Tonight sees the final of Celebrity Big Brother, with Frankie Cocozza of X Factor fame currently heading the market as a 2.24 favourite.  In fairness, he seems to have shown a softer side in recent episodes by sticking up for Denise Welch but my interest here centres around Karissa and Kristina the Playboy Mansion twins.
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Whooa..slow down!  Of course they're nice to look at, but I'm referring more to their chances of winning.  Since Channel 5 took over production of the show last year, something seems to have changed within the voting dynamics and at 12.5 their price seems high.  Yes, they're pompous and  'slightly' arrogant but Aaron went on to win the 'Joe Public' equivalent after displaying similar traits and even got booed on his exit from the house.  With viewing figures smaller than in previous years, does it take 'less' to get enough votes to win?  Call me a cynic but if I was their management and I wanted them to break into the UK market, I'd be doing all I could to make sure they weren't first out tonight.
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So this morning I've shifted all of my 'green' onto them and....Michael Madsen.  At a price of 15's on Betfair this is another runner that seems priced too high.  He has an aura about him that shouts louder than the rest and if nostalgia plays any part in the final standings then I'm sure many 'Reservoir Dogs' fans will be picking up the phone to support him.

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6 comments:

Flash said...

I used to follow big brother and bet big on it. And I do agree that it takes less to win nowadays, most likely because less people watch it and vote on it. Which explains why Ulrika won a few years ago!

I'm sure you've been on the Digital Spy forum, which has the twins and Michael as the leaders in the polls.

Mark Iverson said...

Hi Flash,

Thanks for the comment.

Yep, I did notice the Digital Spy poll which was the bit I needed to back up my hunch.

Could be wrong but happy to have Frankie as the only red (small) possibility in my book.

All the best,

Mark

The Sultan said...

I think the change from 'vote to evict' to 'vote to save' has completely changed the dynamic and now, people who split opinion (generally the more controversial characters), have a much stronger chance of staying in. They are not likely to win though, as the voting changes to 'vote to win' in the final, which is why the Shannonm Twins and Madson finished where they did.

Mark Iverson said...

Hi Sultan,

Yep, think you're right.

Shame my bets didn't come off (I really did expect the twins to get further) but at least I got to put a nice pic on my blog!

All the best,

Mark

Anonymous said...

"So this morning I've shifted all of my 'green' onto them and....Michael Madsen. "

Always a risky move with the specials putting all your eggs in one basket. Been doing these for a while and seen so many shock results I've realised you can never accurately predict the way these things will go with the great British public and relatively low voting figures. Always best to spread the green and get something out of it for all those hours 'work'.

Towards the end of the sries I always thought the twins and Michael were up against it as the GBP rarely vote for Americans and much rather vote the british chav to win. Gavin was always in with a shot but just didn't have any defining moments and Frankie stole his thunder in the trousergate incident which effectively put him out the running. I had Frankie as the winner but spread my green across the last 5 , I think it came down to Denise's daytime tv popularity at the end of the day.

Mark Iverson said...

Hi Anonymous,

Thanks for the comment.

My book was very small so I had no qualms about shifting my green as I'd put very little 'work' into this market. I do share your thoughts on this though - if it were a cricket match I'd have definitely made sure of getting paid.

I didn't fancy Frankie but have to admit to being surprised that Denise won - she was a bit like Marmite and I wasn't sure which way the voters would go with her.

Thanks again.

All the best,

Mark