Friday, 6 January 2012

One Year On (Part 3/3)

With the analysis on what went right and wrong in 2011 completed, I now have to set out a plan on how I can make more in 2012.

There seems to be 2 distinct options; improve my profitability on losing sports and maybe stretch into other fields, or concentrate on markets where my edge is clear and improve the expected return on each of those events.

I’ve tossed and turned over this, but despite being a little concerned that putting my eggs in one basket may not be a wise move, I’ve come to feel that my best chance of getting to the next level is to target my established markets.  The last 12 months have provided a great sounding board but now it’s time to get serious and up the ante.  Now that I have a very good idea of where my strengths lie it would be bizarre for me not to spend as much time as possible on maximising the returns they bring.  Diluting my attention to unknown or poor markets would seem a waste but I’m fully aware the challenge won’t be an easy one. Yes, my profits have increased by 70% this year but the year before I was only a part-time trader so it’s not a direct comparison.  To hit the same heights again I’m going to have to become much more aggressive but at the same time refrain from being stupid – a tricky balancing act which has caught me out before.

So where will I concentrate my forces?  Well, with cricket providing 82% of my profits I think it should be there!  However, the number of matches available to bet on is likely to remain in the 250-270 bracket so I can no longer rely on quantity over quality – I have to focus on improving the expected return on each match.   Is this possible – can I grow?  Yes, I think I can.  I was aware of being overly cautious at times last year and although I’ll continue to manage my risk closely, I’ll be conscious of the fact that I need to push the boundaries.  The worst thing for me to do would be to trundle to the super premium charge threshold of £250k and end up scratching my head thinking what to do next.

As Vinny Jones says, it pays to go, “Hard & Fast.”



fairfranco said...

do you bet on all forms of cricket and on covered domestics?

I've got 28 games this month which while high because of the Big bash doesn't even cover the Caribbean T20 which can't be quite lucrative.

Then you'll have the IPL as well as the new Bangladesh T20 which should be worth some cautious interest.

After that you get on to the English championship with both Pro40 and T20 worth a go with plenty of tv coverage. First class i've never dabbled in due to lack of liquidity and not really following it.

Of course the T20 world cup also makes up for the missing ODI WC games.

Zimbabwe's T20 bash was alright for a little interest as with decent stream coverage.

All round I'd say you can get over 300 games...unless you take a long holiday of course!

I've taken on board your comment earlier about having expectations from games and have set that for my January schedule, going well so far!

Mark Iverson said...

Hi fairfranco,

Thanks for the comment mate.

Yes, I bet on all forms of cricket with the only ones you mention that I miss out on being those games/competitions involving lesser nations and the County Championship.

All in all this came to 271 in 2011, so not far away from the 300 you mention. With the English domestic T20 competition being reduced this year though there is a worry there that there will be less televised games.

Thanks again,


Cassini said...

"push the boundaries". Very droll!

Mark Iverson said...

I'm glad somebody spotted it - been taking tips off you :-)