Saturday, 24 March 2012

Back To The Future

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Hurrah! I made it back into profit for the month but it wasn't an easy ride. After trading yesterday's ODI the final result was a 15% gain towards my target (I am now 5% over it) but as my p&l graph for the match testifies, I had to turn things around after a sticky start (click to enlarge):










My thoughts prior to the match were that I wanted to be with the bowling team. There was a chance of rain and previous ground statistics pointed towards only a marginally better playing surface than in St Vincent, so I was more than happy to side with Australia when they won the toss and opted to bowl.

In turned out to be an incorrect assumption and as you can see, things didn't go quit to plan as the Windies launched an impressive opening salvo by bashing 56/0 off the first 10 overs.  It's at this point I started to realise that conditions were not what I was expecting.

Over the remainder of the innings I continued to nibble at the Australian price at different intervals but to no avail. The Windies were by now on for a good score and it was time to switch - the Aussies were in trouble.  Fortunately for me I did so just in time. Pollard and Sammy exploded with some mighty power hitting in the last 10 overs and a score of 294 was posted.  In my opinion it was too much for an Australian batting lineup containing a few inexperienced players at this level. The question now was all about getting a good price for a Windies win. To make sure I didn't miss out on an early batting collapse I took a half stake position  at odds of 1.66.

It was the right move as the Windies took David Warner's wicket in the 2nd over, but I should have taken this opportunity to reduce my position and improve my average. In the belief that things would only get worse for the batting side I didn't and it came back to haunt me as they rallied and I was once again into negative territory. Doh! In my bid to get over the line I'd been greedy again and gone against what I know I should have done.

Undettered I once again waited for another entry point - still believing the Windies had enough.  The Aussies were hitting boundaries, the market was jumping and they'd become favourites. Surely an overreaction chasing such a high score despite the conditions?  Yes, it was, and it was my entry at this point that sealed my win.  Multiple wickets fell in the coming overs and by the time the visitors were 112/5 I'd decided to call it a day.

This is why I love betting on cricket.  I can be wrong so many times, but as long as I manage my risk it's often relatively straightforward to get into a positive position at some point throughout a match.  I hear alot about people wanting winning strategies but the truth is a lot more simple - stay clear from greed and concentrate on making the right decisions.

My mission has now changed - I need to hold onto this profit until the end of the month!  With 5 cricket matches, a night of darts and a couple of games of rugby to go, there's plenty of time to blow it.

 

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