Losing It

Since Last Post P/L: £630.97

Monthly P/L: £630.97

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Caden has suffered from a bout of sickness and diarrhoea this week so with looking after him, fighting the snow and coping with the launch of a new product in work it's surprising I've been able to make any profit at all!

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Following a nice win on the 1st ODI International between Australia and New Zealand I decided that I needed to investigate ways of lessening the Premium Charge burden. My initial thoughts were to put together a horse laying system that over a period of time returned a break even p&l with an even percentage of winners of losers. My first foray into this strategy ended in a small loss of £28.43 (which is more than I would have paid in terms of PC) but it's not an approach that can be judged on one day so I won't fret just yet. It is a sad state of affairs though when you have to consider how to lose in order to keep hold of profit.

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With 'losing' firmly in my mindset I then thought to myself, "Hey, what the heck, why not take another look at Tennis?" and proceeded to spend a good few hours going through some simulated scenarios. Although the Movistar Open currently being held in Chile isn't Wimbledon, it served it's purpose and provided some enlightening moments. Although I'm still paying for my education I'm beginning to see some light at the end of the tunnel.

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Here's a round-up of my results for February:

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American Football : £12.60

Cricket : £434.79

Darts : £94.10

Horse Racing : £28.43

Rugby Union : £249.35

Tennis : £53.82

Premium Charge : £77.62

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MISSING: One Fat Lady

Since Last Post P/L: £594.16

Monthly P/L: £594.16

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Her dulcet tones have been heard a million times, but for some reason, this week she's decided to make herself scarce.

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Felipe Massa was the first victim of her vanishing act. After beating Lewis Hamilton to the first bend of the Hungarian Grand Prix he looked a shoe-in to storm to an unlikely victory, but it was not to be. With only 3 laps to go, his engine failed and he was out of the race. Ouch - with 18k matched at 1.01 there's a few people out there now patching-up the holes in their pockets. Luckily, I wasn't one of them but I remember thinking at the time that those lumping on the cash must have been mental.

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In the Pro40 cricket the twists and turns continued, as Middlesex and Essex both managed to defend low scores when facing Somerset and Northants. The graph below shows the Middlesex price throughout their match and provides a great illustration of why I love trading cricket. The game goes through many peaks and troughs and you don't have to be too concerned with how quickly you can click the mouse button. Not many sports allow you to see a selection open at 1.90, drift to 8.00 and then go on to win!

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It really is amazing how many 'sure things' get turned over, but spotting a real 'cert' from a dud isn't an easy task. This isn't to say I don't think it's possible or profitable, but in my opinion putting your hopes in animals or machines at such low odds is asking for trouble. Odds of 1.05 on Phil Taylor winning a Darts match and odds of 1.05 on 'Dirty Dobbin' winning the Derby just aren't the same in my book :-)

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Here's my results from this week:

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Rugby Union

New Zealand v Australia : £15.77

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Cricket

Middlesex v Somerset : £233.09

Essex v Surrey : £205.39

Warwickshire v Northants : £1.65

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Tennis

Moya v Murray : £23.69

Karlovic v Kohlschreiber : £7.74

Murray v Djokovic : £8.76

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Motor Sport

Hungary Grand Prix : £115.59

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I'm very happy with those figures and with my focus now completely on becoming highly consistent I just want to keep things moving. I'm aware that with Caden due to have his operation at the beginning of October, trading time will be at a minimum so making the most of the summer will be crucial if I'm going to post a decent total for 2008.

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The Olympics also kicks off today and although my knowledge of the various events is limited, it may pay to take a look at the more liquid markets. I'm not pencilling anything in yet but I'll keep my eyes peeled for anything of interest. With the Games guaranteed to generate a lot of media interest, over-hype and national pride may lead to inefficient markets.

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No Boundaries

Blue : 2008

Pink : 2007

Orange : 2006

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Since Last Post P/L: £540.23
Monthly P/L: £1,663.86

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Rebecca went! I suppose it was to be expected but after having a pretty successful evening at the races (I won £60) it was a bit of a disappointment to hear that she'd gone. Darnell and Mohamed can count themselves lucky - this is the most open Big Brother there's been and with no certain winner, I can foresee a few shocks and surprises before the series ends. The show seems like it's been on the box forever but there's still another 5 weeks to go!

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Saturday was sublime. With the sun scorching and the fans licking their lips, the scene was set for some serious action and the players didn't let anyone down. After 119 overs of pulsating entertainment the tournament went down to the last 6 balls and by this stage I was absolutely knackered. Is there any wonder why this format of the game is attracting so much interest? Everyone loves it! The sooner they scrap the County Championship the better :-)

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Fortunately, all this cricket has allowed me to finish the month with a bit of a flurry and with a 12% growth of my trading bank during July, I'm quite happy with how things have gone. By analysing my trading activity in more detail it's helped me to concentrate at a level higher and for longer periods than in recent times. One glance at my key statistics backs this up with my win % particularly pleasing:

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Average win/loss per market : £41.60

Average win : £73.43

Average loss : £24.53

Win % : 67.50%

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Here's my final results for July:

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Tennis

Gonzalez v Berdych : £6.61

Robredo v Soderling : £77.73

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Cricket

Essex v Kent : £67.63

Middlesex v Durham : £109.56

Kent v Middlesex : £464.16

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Special Bets

Big Brother - 6th Eviction : £30.00

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Attempting to teach myself the tennis markets has been a little costly but I get the feeling it'll be worthwhile in the long run. I keep reminding myself that twelve months ago I didn't have a clue how to trade cricket and it was only after spending a lot of time studying the game that things started to turn the corner. I'll keep plugging away as I don't want to become a 'one trick pony' just yet.

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Before I go, I'd like to say thanks to those who have voted in my current poll. The results have given me plenty of food for thought and I think the direction on where I'm heading is now a little clearer.

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Ciao for now!

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YOU Are Evicted

Since Last Post P/L: £402.31

Monthly P/L: £1123.63

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To be honest, I haven't got a clue how to start this post. It's been a strange week. There's been some highs, some lows and a few non events so I'm at a loss as to which I mention first.

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Okay, let's start with the bad stuff which all stemmed from the events of last Friday night. It was our works Summer Ball and as expected I got quite drunk. Now this hangover business is bad at the best of times but add a newly born baby into the mix and the following day can become an extremely long one indeed. However, Saturday morning started well - after slipping down a few paracetamols to get rid of the headache, 40 minutes later I'd traded the Tri-Nations game between Australia v South Africa for a profit. I should have stopped there as about midday that all too familiar warm, tingly feeling starting to come over me - you know the one - the achy, eye shutting, roll up in a ball sensation that feels like your body's shutting down. So did I do the sensible thing? Of course not - instead I thought it would be a great idea to give the horse racing markets "another go". You'll see from my results below that I lived up to the old adage that a fool and his money are soon parted. It got so ridiculous that by the end of the afternoon I was 'laying' any horse I didn't like the look of!

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Sunday saw the start of my recovery (a combined profit of £0.49 on the Golf and Grand Prix!) but it was from Monday onwards that I started to get back into the swing of things.

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I've mentioned many times on this blog about my desire to get more involved with Tennis and as the ATP Masters Rogers Cup began in Toronto, and with not much else happening, it seemed a good opportunity to take a look. Fortunately, the experience was a pleasant one and even after reducing my stake levels considerably (compared to what I use for Cricket) I was able to make over £50 for around an hours work. The only drawback here is that I see Cricket and Tennis conflicting when it comes to scheduling, so I'll really have to think how I structure my weeks to get the best from both worlds. With Cricket again being my saviour over the last few days there's just no way I can consider dropping the sport from my trading portfolio.

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Here are my full results from the past week:

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Rugby Union

Australia v South Africa : £26.13

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Golf

The Open Championship : £0.44

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Cricket

Durham v Glamorgan : £79.57

Durham v Somerset : £64.56

Glamorgan v Surrey : £294.72

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Motor Sport

German Grand Prix : £0.05

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Tennis

Llodra v Gasquet : £45.79

Canas v Soderling : £13.28

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Horse Racing

Newbury : £99.90

Ripon : £24.67

Market Rasen : £2.05

Yarmouth : £0.29

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So what about this weekend? Well my first involvement is in tonight's Big Brother 6th eviction market. Rebecca, Mohamed and Darnell are the individuals in the mix and after watching the programme regularly I'm convinced that Rebecca's price is a little off. Following last night's programme (she did have a bad show) she was trading at 1.15 and whilst I agree she should be favourite I don't think she'll get 87% of the vote. In the hope that I'm right, I've entered a £200 lay with the view of it being a straight up bet - I'm getting 13/2 that either Mohamed or Darnell will get evicted instead, and I'm happy with those odds.

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Tomorrow then promises to be the best day in the cricketing calendar - it's Twenty20 Cup Finals Day! The Rose Bowl in Southampton is the venue and with 3 matches played in succession it'll be a feast of 4's, 6's, wickets and wonga! Even if you're not a cricket fan it's hard not to enjoy all the razzmatazz.

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But.....before that all happens, myself and Nic are off to Chepstow races tonight with a gang of people from work. It should be a laugh and I won't be taking it too seriously. I've only given myself a £30 betting budget to play with, and as I'll be counting this as 'leisure time' I won't be recording any wins or losses in my results.

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If you're watching on TV, keep an eye out for me, I'll be holding a Betfair umbrella :-)

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Time Flies

Since Last Post P/L: £65.98
Monthly P/L: £701.24

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Making a loss at the end of the month is starting to become a very frustrating habit. I know the reasons why I'm doing it but I just can't stop myself. It's all about thinking or taking for granted the money I've got in the bank and adding up the figures before the finish. As a result I'm not fully accepting the potential losses before I enter a trade or sit down to start a trading session. This is vital flaw because what I end up doing is being timid in my approach and not having the conviction I need to turn a profit. This previous post describes perfectly how I should be acting but those feelings are just not there when the last few days of the month are in sight. Then the inevitable happens - I make a loss, then another one and before you know it I'm out of my comfort zone with the prospect of an unbearable loss is on the horizon. What I should be doing is holding back and only getting involved when I'm convinced that things are in my favour and then go in hard. Please remind me about this the same time next month :-)

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Elsewhere, the hot topic on other blogs seems to that of recording and keeping track of trading results. Even though I do review my progress regularly on a weekly/monthly basis, after reading Matt's excellent post at Punt.com I also feel I should be doing more in this department. I can see this process taking at least a few days to complete but as soon as I'm done I'll let you know the results. Not sure what the outcome will be but I can tell you now that I'm just not spending enough time at my desk. What with making dinner, bathing the baby, writing the blog and being a part time Project Manager my time is well and truly tied up. Something sooner or later will have to give and I'm in no doubt that without dedicating sufficient time to my trading my results will suffer. If this trend continues then some tough questions may have to be answered. Pete Sampras didn't win 14 Grand Slam men's singles titles from hitting a few balls every other night.

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But it's not all doom and gloom. Let me take a minute to reflect on how far I've come. Okay, this month hasn't been great with only a 5% growth to my trading bank but I was away for a week in Ibiza which meant I missed a few events I would have otherwise got involved with. If you look at the bigger picture - I've already made over 6k profit this year which is not far away from my total profit in 2007. If I can continue at that rate of growth I'll be more than happy and 2008 will end up being another fantastic year. I just have to continue looking forward and not dwell too much on the negatives.

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Something else which has been playing on my mind has been what sports should make up my trading portfolio. Some sort of prioritisation needs to take place but what criteria should I use? A past history of profits? The sports I'm most familiar with? Sports with markets that have the most liquidity? The list gos on but Mike from the Slipperytoad blog reviewed the issue recently in this post. Historically, Cricket, Rugby Union and Darts have been my most profitable sports but I can't help but feel that Tennis and even Horse Racing should figure more prominently. Getting involved in these events will take time to develop strategies (reviewing statistics/past results etc.) and if I do this my monthly profits are sure to stagnate so you can understand my reluctance to change. Any advice on how to handle this situation from those of you who've experienced this in the past would be much appreciated.

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My final results for June were:

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Cricket

West Indies v Australia : £0.30

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Tennis

Vaidisova v Chakvetadze : £48.93

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In my last post I did also forget a market that had been settled in my Australian Betfair wallet :

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Rugby Union

New Zealand v England : £17.35

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Top Gear

Since Last Post P/L: £449.73
Monthly P/L: £767.22
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After experiencing an initial setback I was able to recover this week and finally managed to ‘build the lead’ that I described in my last post. I’m delighted to have what I would describe as a decent total ‘on the board’ but not everyone is pleased. The comment I had from Nic on Monday said it all – “How can you go from making £2800 in one month to £750 the next?” I could see her point but replied in a flash, “quite easily!”
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That’s one of the problems with this gambling lark – managing expectations. It’s so easy to get ahead of yourself and to start spending the money you’ve yet to earn. Even if you’re able to control those thoughts you then have the issue of reigning in those close to you who are only too eager to start jumping the gun. I keep reminding myself that this is a marathon and not a sprint but now that she’s had a sniff of my winnings I think I’m in trouble – she’s not going to let up!
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Here’s a list of my results for the past week:
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Cricket
Worcestershire v Somerset : £155.59
Lancashire v Yorkshire : £298.78
Northants v Glamorgan : £16.86
Hampshire v Surrey : £28.58
Essex v Sussex : £23.25
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Horse Racing
Redcar : £3.87
Ascot : £0.49
Wolverhampton : £0.08
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Formula 1
French Grand Prix : £217.84
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Tennis
Hewitt v Haase : £15.69
Kanepi v Williams : £0.04
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With Wimbledon underway I decided to dabble into the tennis markets and had a brief but positive experience. Lleyton Hewitt versus Robin Haase was the focus of my attention and with the Australian’s price trading at 1.17 before the start I was quite confident it would trade higher in play. It did. I wasn’t exposing myself to large amounts so gradually traded my way out of my position as his price rose to 1.55 within the first couple of sets. In the end the match went the full five sets which makes me believe that no one except Federer and Nadal can be considered as shoe-ins.
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You’ll also notice that a nice green figure came from the French Grand Prix. Prior to the race, the market made it a two horse race between Raikkonen and Massa due to Ferrari’s dominance. With the Scandinavian trading as a strong 1.50 favourite it didn’t look like he’d have much competition and within a few laps his price had crumbled to 1.28. He was in control and extending his lead – what could possibly go wrong? Thank heavens for a dodgy exhaust. I latched onto the fact that Massa was catching him through each sector pretty quickly, and nudged in a lay for a conservative amount at 1.20. Sure enough, every man and his dog then realised the severity of the situation and within minutes his price had shot out to above 30! I’m gutted that I didn’t lump on the mortgage but I can’t be greedy – there’ll be plenty more opportunities throughout the rest of the Championship and I’ll learn from this.
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I don’t usually like to end my ramblings on a sombre note but I’d like to mention how saddened I was to learn that John Lovell (page 33) the Cardiff bookmaker had died recently. I’d met John a couple of times during some Betfair Education evenings and he seemed like a very likeable guy and a genuine person. My thoughts go to his family at this difficult time.
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Holiday Hangover

Since Last Post P/L: £152.80

Monthly P/L: £317.49

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I survived – just! Apologies for not posting sooner but it’s taken a while for me to recover and with the Twenty20 Cup kicking into action I haven’t had much spare time on my hands. It was a great trip but the 4am start on the Friday took it’s toll and by the time I got back at midnight on the Monday I’d consumed enough alcohol to last a lifetime! Reluctantly I’ve had to admit that I’m not as young as I used to be. My days of dancing the night away until the early hours are now officially over.
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Positive gains have been difficult to come by recently and a little bit of indiscipline has crept into my trading. After having such a good month in May I suppose it should have been expected! The plan as they say in rugby circles is to now ‘build a lead’ and not get involved in any rash trades. Little and often needs to be the motto for the next week so I’ll be playing things tight with the aim of growing profits gradually.

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Here's a full list of my latest results:
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Rugby Union
Australia v Ireland : £56.30
New Zealand v England : £20.92
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Cricket
Kent v Sussex : £61.79
Worcestershire v Gloucestershire : £4.56
England v New Zealand (T20) : £70.65
Somerset v Warwickshire : £43.77
England v New Zealand (ODI) : £209.35
Middlesex v Surrey : £301.34
Lancashire v Durham : £64.06
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Golf
US Open - Winner : £129.31
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Tennis
Nadal v Djokovic : £2.45
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The highlight out of that lot was undoubtedly Tiger Woods winning the US Open on one leg - the guy's a freak. The winner market had more swings than a kiddies play park and even though Rocco Mediate was a gallant loser was the result ever in doubt? Tiger's putt on the 18th during the 4th round seemed destined for the hole and you just knew when it dropped that there'd only be one winner. News has broken today that Woods will be out for the rest of the season and whilst you have to feel sorry for him it should make for some competitive tournaments during the rest of the Summer.
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Elsewhere, it’s great to see the Betfair Trader back and posting on his blog. He and Matt from Punt.com have been an inspiration to me over the last 18 months so I hope he continues to let us know his thoughts.
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That's about it for now and I promise I won't leave it as long next time!
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Becoming A Bot

Since Last Post P/L: £551.20
Monthly P/L: £2851.45

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Here's a question for you - how long does it take for the figures on the screen to become just numbers? After this weekend I'm starting to think that the answer is 'not long'. I've continued to make a decent amount but something hasn't felt right over the last few days. Maybe I'm starting to lose a feel for what I'm doing, maybe I'm starting to take things for granted - I'm not sure.

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I'm hoping it's just down to trading the same sport every day. It's the same with anything though, right? You can love steak but if you eat it every night it after a while it'll start to taste a little tough. All these thought have made me think about the other Betfair users out there in similar position and I've been wondering how they cope with it. Are we all robots? Are we all just staring at the screens waiting patiently for 'trading trigger signals' to be met? But I needn't worry, I won't have this problem for long as the Indian Premier League is reaching the business end of the tournament and will climax next Sunday for the Grand Final. I'm sure I'll be looking back and wishing for it's return soon after.

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Here's my results for the last week:

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Cricket

Punjab v Deccan : £90.57

Chennai v Rajasthan : £70.44

Delhi v Mumbai : £426.47

Deccan v Bangalore : £34.59

Kolkata v Punjab : £2.20

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Rugby Union

Heineken Cup - Outright Winner : £35.30

Munster v Toulouse : £43.51

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Special Bets

Eurovision Song Contest : £11.00

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Yes, I know - the Eurovision Song Contest!?! Well, if Matt from Punt.com is happy to gamble on Big Brother (I haven't forgotten - ha!) then what's wrong with having a dabble on Europe's political voting showcase? Just in case you're interested, I was on Latvia, Armenia, Sweden and the UK!

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Hole In One?

Since Last Post P/L: £315.99
Monthly P/L: £684.80
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You may remember from this post back in August that I'm due to become a Dad for the first time in March. Well, this week was the time for Nicola to have her 20 week scan so we trudged off to the hospital on Wednesday to check that all was still in order. Now, I'm not a big fan of hospitals at the best of times as when I was younger I seemed to spend most of my life there for one reason or another and now whenever I return they always tend to leave me feeling a little queasy. This day was no exception.
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I used to think that this stage of a pregnancy was the exciting bit - the time when you could start looking forward to the big change on the horizon and to start buying clothes etc. but my vision took a bit of a knock as soon as we entered the dimly lit room. As soon as the lady explained that the scan would take up to 20 minutes as they had a checklist to go through my stomach started to churn - had I taken a wrong turn and parked my car outside Kwikfit?
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Sure enough, a couple of seconds later and we were off...legs...CHECK...arms...CHECK. The organs and limbs started coming thick and fast and it wasn't long before I felt close to shouting, "HOUSE!" but I resisted the temptation and bit my tongue.
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It was at this point I started to have sympathy for all those players that only ever get a line.
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The lady began to stutter when looking at the baby's heart. She went back and forth many times and after 10 minutes (it seemed much longer) she announced that there was a shadow on the screen that she wasn't very happy about and that one of the Doctor's should come and have a look. Our faces dropped. Excitement was swiftly replaced by fear and when the Doctor came even she couldn't ease our concerns. The diagnosis wasn't great - it appeared that the baby's heart had a possible 'VSD' which stands for 'Ventricular Septal Defect' and is a posh term for a 'hole in the heart'.
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This does sound dramatic but on the bright side apparently the size of the hole is the crucial factor in what happens next. As you would expect the larger the hole the bigger the issue but unfortunately due to the size of the baby and the way he was lying (yes, it's a boy) they were unable to tell how big it is. As you can imagine, this all leaves us in a bit of a 'no mans land' until we go back for another scan in a couple of weeks but after a bit of research on the internet I'm taking inspiration from Danny Swanson's story. If he can defy the odds and play Professional football then there's still a chance my son can end up captaining the Welsh rugby team!
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You can see it's been a testing few days so please forgive me for the title of this post - I had to try and put a smile on my face!
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In a bid to take my mind off things I've also got involved in a bit of trading and these are my results since my last post:
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Tennis
Murray v Nadal = £19.56
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Rugby Union
France v Argentina = £207.41
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Cricket
India v Australia = £128.14
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A shame about the Tennis but even though I only dipped my toes into the water I can see this as a sport you can make a lot of money from if you know what you're doing. At Christmas, I'll be conducting an end of year review and as part of that I'll be evaluating if I should invest more time in this sport and if so, which of my current portfolio should drop down the list to accommodate it e.g Darts?
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As a side note, I'd like to say well done to the English rugby team - you didn't win the World Cup but it was a fantastic effort to reach the final and you can be very proud of what you've achieved.
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Have a good week everyone and thanks for dropping by.
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Another Score Draw

Since Last Post P/L: £12.85
Monthly P/L: £144.36

I apologise if it's a little slow around here at the moment but I suppose this isn't the entertainment business! The simple fact is I'm here to try and make money and if things are not happening I can't afford to push it otherwise I'm sure to get myself in a mess. I just need to let things roll, wait for the right opportunities and then when they come along have the conviction to make the most of them.

Clermont v Bath
For once a rugby match didn't go my way. Prior to kick off Clermont were trading at 1.72 and even though I was convinced they'd win the match they ended up making hard work of it. The first half was scrappy and as my strategy is based on predicting big market swings, when nothing happened I ended up getting caught a few times. At half time I thought about trading up to 60 minutes but in the end my trading rules prevailed and I decided to bail with a loss of £21.42.

Federer v Nadal
My first tennis action of 2007 started with a small loss of £8.76. I was tempted by the match up of two great athletes and wanted to see if I could spot some value. The consensus before the match was that Nadal would walk it and at a price of 1.36 the market agreed. He won the first set and looked assured of his 81st consecutive clay court victory but Roger dug in and played some wonderful stuff to win 2-1 in sets. I played with low stakes to test some strategies but none really worked so unfortunately it's back to the drawing board.

Leicester v Wasps
This was the highlight of my weekend. Having been very impressed by Leicester this year, I'd marked them before kick off as being between a 1.50 and 1.66 shot. When I saw their price was 1.40 I was very tempted to get involved but in the end decided to hang on to see how things developed. It was immediately obvious that the Wasps defence were in good form and you could see they were up for the game. The market started to take note and the price started to drift. The main point for me was managing to lay Leicester @ 1.74 just before the Ibanez try which helped secure me a profit of £43.03 on the match.

It'll be another quiet week for me as I plan my assault on the final weekend of the month - how will May turn out?
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