Wednesday, 8 December 2010

Even Stevens

I was very pleased with Everton's late equaliser against Chelsea last weekend as it meant another profitable week for my new Premier League ratings, but I'm not getting ahead of myself. If I can finish the season in profit then I'll accept that maybe I'm onto something but for the time being I intend to keep stakes relatively small and just learn as much as I can in the process.

For the record though, here are the full statistics for the season to date:

Bets : 54
Won : 33 (61%)
Lost : 21 (39%)
Average Odds : 2.47

Now onto this weekend:

From that table you can probably identify quite a few equally matched teams squaring up this week. Maybe a great day for some score draws? I'm going to reserve judgement until Friday when the prices will have firmed up but be sure to come back as I'll be updating this post with my value picks then. In the meantime, here's the latest form table:

UPDATE - 10/12/2010

Aw shucks! Now I know nobody is reading this as nobody spotted my mistake when I posted my statistics. I would dearly love average odds of 2.90 but as yet I can only manage 2.47. It was an honest typo so please accept my apologies.

Here's the latest odds from Betfair:

So what do I think the weekend holds in store? Okay, from the top....

Everton v Wigan: If I wasn't using these ratings then I wouldn't have even considered this bet. Not much in it between the two sides in both the 4 match supremacy and home/away form (Everton slightly stronger on both) so to discover a juicy draw price of 4.50 means there's only one thing to do. Conclusion: Draw @ 4.50

Stoke v Blackpool: Blackpool seem to be completely underestimated every week according to my ratings. Stoke seem to be priced extremely short when comparing the statistics and with both sets of results very consistent over the last 4 games it didn't take me long to decide to oppose them. Conclusion: Lay Stoke @ 1.67

West Ham v Man City: Another match where I'm pleasantly surprised by the prices available. Man City have been very solid form over the last 4 games and are completely dominant (23.75 v 11.50). Their away form is also superior to West Ham's form this season (21.25 v 15.00) so the 1.95 for an away win seems very appealing. Conclusion: Back Man City @ 1.95

Man Utd v Arsenal: A titanic clash with the 2nd and 3rd placed teams in my form table matching up. Not surprisingly the last 4 games for both sides are packed with strong performances and there's no separating them when it comes to home/away form either. The price of 3.60 on the draw is just big enough to gain my interest. Conclusion: Draw @ 3.60

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