Thursday, 28 June 2007

Sewn Up

Daily P/L: £41.07
Monthly P/L: £341.65
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I'm sure England are now ruing their decision to leave specialist Twenty20 players out of their squad to face the West Indies. The frustration for most England fans must be that a side filled with the likes of Maddy and Doshi would probably beat the Windies 8 times out of 10 so why can't the selectors see that this game is completely different to test matches and even the normal 50 over format? A team jammed with seamers and the absence of quality spinners is a complete mystery to me. The use of spin at the right time has been a pivotal part of any success in this game - just ask Leicestershire - but there was nobody on the pitch to answer the call when it was needed this evening.
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England v West Indies
I was hoping for the Windies to win the toss and when they did I had the feeling it was "game on". The market was full of England over-confidence so if the visitors posted a score of 160+ I was confident the market wouldn't react until it had given me a chance to make some profit. Even though the pitch was described as a "belter" by the commentators you still have to get the runs and the Windies did it in style to post a massive 208 from their allocation. Favouritism had swung full circle and the price of 1.46 on the Windies looked hugely attractive but a couple of things stopped me from going in heavy. I haven't traded on an England one day international before so even though I felt the price should be more like 1.25 the market to me was very unpredictable. My thinking was that if England managed a few early boundaries (which was likely given the fielding restrictions during the first 6 overs) then their price would drift to 1.70+ very quickly and I'd be in danger of getting stung badly. Therefore, I made the decision to leave my mouse alone and to wait for the right opportunity before lumping on as England started to collapse. Unfortunately, England put up a good fight. They lost wickets steadily but the run rate never got too far out of reach to reflect the odds on offer as value (the Windies were 1.1x for long periods of the England innings which weren't good enough in my book). Hence, I didn't cash in despite calling the result - a missed opportunity or the right thing to do? I think it was the right way to play it but it means only a small gain of £41.07 can be recorded for the day.
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The good news is we get the chance to have a second bash tomorrow - after today's performance it'll be interesting to see what price England open at.
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