Slow & Steady

Daily P/L: £13.56
Monthly P/L: £88.33

Nothing spectacular today. I only got involved in 2 of the Heineken Cup games and neither offered as many opportunities as the game on Friday night.

In the first match, the market preferred Castres to Wasps as they traded at around 1.72 before kick off. My pre-match analysis led me to believe that Wasps would win by 4 points (they eventually won by 3) so I thought the price on Castres was a little short but one of my rules with rugby is never to trade before the game starts. This is sometimes very difficult as some prices can often appear well out of sync with the situation, but it only takes a dropped pass or a runaway try to lower the price even further and then you're already staring at a loss.

The alternative for me is to watch the game, focus on possession and territory and make a move when my pre-set conditions are met. Not every game is the same and the frequency of my criteria being matched varies depending on the type of game and the teams involved. However, when all signals give a green light the rewards can be very good.

Unfortunately, both the Castres v Wasps and Munster v Leicester games were quite scrappy affairs with both defences on top so my potential gains were limited. It seems that for me to win big with my current stategy, I need both teams to be potent at attacking and have a few holes in their defence.

After previewing tomorrow's games it seems that Llanelli v London Irish fits the bill and Northampton v Biarritz could follow suit. Llanelli, Northampton & Biarritz are all already through to the Quarter Finals so there's a big chance their defences won't turn up and all of them are capable of scoring a lot of points. If this happens there should be plenty of opportunites to take advantage of and hopefully I'll be on the right side of them.