American Dreams

This weekend sees the start of the NFL playoffs. For those of you not familiar with American Football it's the business end of the season where the best teams meet each other on a knock-out basis.

I've always liked the NFL but have lost touch over the last few years and have only just got back into it. To me it has the potential to be an excellent trading sport; it lasts over 3 hours, it's a turn based game and most importantly you have enough time to spot opportunities and act on them. The only downside, that bigger traders will be quick to point out, is the lack of liquidity when compared to more popular sports like soccer & cricket. However, if you act little and often, the volatility of the market can ensure decent profits.

At this stage there are 12 teams left in the competition. From their performances in the regular season I rank the teams in the following order to win the Superbowl (current Betfair odds in brackets):

1. New Orleans (10.5)
2. Philadelphia (18)
3. Baltimore (6.2)
4. Indianapolis (12)
5. San Diego (3.6)
6. New England (11)
7. Dallas (36)
8. Chicago (6.4)
9. Kansas City (60)
10. Seattle (36)
11. NY Jets (65)
12. NY Giants (75)

From the table it looks like there's some value on offer but it should be noted that New Orleans, Baltimore, San Diego and Chicago are already through to the next round. However, I'm very confident that the eventual winner will come from the top 7 in the list.

This weekend the match-ups are:

Kansas City @ Indianapolis
Dallas @ Seattle
NY Jets @ New England
NY Giants @ Philadelphia

Without going into to much detail I see victories for Indianapolis, Dallas, New England & Philadelphia.

With Dallas currently trading at 2.38 to win their match, they probably offer the best value and even if they don't win I think their price will trade a lot lower in-play. The key is their passing game as they have the potential to 'throw' rings around their opponents - if they click they could win easier than expected.

Now for the bad bit - I'm at a wedding Saturday night!

The game kicks off at 1am and the chances of me being sober at this time are pretty slim so I'll probably have to sit this one out (discipline, discipline, discipline).

If you do get involved only trade the first half - after this things can get a bit scary!